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Jan 24-25-26 2015 - possible significant coastal storm this weekend

billski

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00z and NAM are calling a home run for the Poconos and Catskills. The 06 has gone insane and is calling for upwards of 14 inches.

This is the 120 hour projection though. Is there something else coming down the pike that we didn't know about? Because the weekend storm looks like 2-4 for the Poconos and 4-6 in the city.


CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL-KUCHERA-40_60HR.gif
 

billski

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The accumulation for the Poconos and such is higher because they could see 4-6"+ Monday.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
415 AM THU UPDATE... RELATIVELY SMALL CHGS WERE MADE FOR THE SUN
NGT-MON PD...OTHWS THE FCST WAS LEFT AS IS.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT THE SAME BIG PICTURE IDEAS...WITH A
PERSISTENT POS PNA PATN (WRN NORTH AMER L/WV RIDGE AND ERN NORTH
AMER L/WV TROUGH FEATURES).

AN EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FAIRLY STG
CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM EWD THROUGH THE NERN/MID-ATL STATES SUN NGT
INTO MON. ALTHOUGH POSITION DIFFS REMAIN WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK (EC
FARTHEST S ACRS VA...CAN GEM FARTHEST N ACRS NY STATE...AND THE GFS
IN BETWEEN NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER)...ALL SCENARIOS WOULD BRING AT
LEAST SOME SNOW TO THE FA...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVERALL
ACRS NY`S SRN TIER AND NE PA. POP/WX/SNOWFALL GRIDS WERE TWEAKED A
BIT TO BEST REPRESENT THESE IDEAS.
 

BenedictGomez

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Don't know why BG. Those bumps had just been refreshed the prior days from the previous rain, and will most likely be refreshed this week after Sunday's rain.

They must be relentlessly pounding whatever trail that is with snowmaking to have it look like that given the snow-starvation.

Is that actually a selling point now?

Sadly, yes. It's what the hoards seem to want. Or at least, it seems to be what the casual "go/no-go" masses require, which is probably why ski marketers boast of "laying down miles of perfect corduroy" etc.
 

4aprice

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They must be relentlessly pounding whatever trail that is with snowmaking to have it look like that given the snow-starvation.

Thus my comment about mountain ops. Actually the mountain is in very good shape and they continue to make snow this week. Uncle Bill's and Asp had bumps but the weather caused them to be taken out. Get a break from the rain and I expect them to reappear. Base depths on all trails are pretty good right now. They can be criticized for many things but they do cover the mountain well

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ
 

Kleetus

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You just jinxed it. 2ft of snow coming Tuesday. Thank you.

I knew when I booked it that would be the driving force behind a good dump in the east...Normally happens when I have to go somewhere for business...unfortunately it seems to be the same on the rare occasion I actually fly somewhere for vacation...
 

SnowRock

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Thus my comment about mountain ops. Actually the mountain is in very good shape and they continue to make snow this week. Uncle Bill's and Asp had bumps but the weather caused them to be taken out. Get a break from the rain and I expect them to reappear. Base depths on all trails are pretty good right now. They can be criticized for many things but they do cover the mountain well

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

Completely agree.. got out there Monday for a few hours early, expected things to be much worse and was pleasantly surprised.
 

BenedictGomez

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These forecasts suck. I can't look anymore. Someone had to say!!!!!!!

Yeah, this is a pretty big letdown versus thinking 24 hours ago.

At least for next week there will be cold air entrenched when the energy comes through.

Here are some random mets snow maps for Saturday.

2c01b0a0a56fc7262038dbf8bc3488ac

10947282_1012906742057566_5813757735062923512_n.png

10933888_553825824721071_6794109173820589854_n.png
 

ScottySkis

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B east in MA will get snow for this Sunday or should I go to platty like orihanky planned never been to berskire e real want to check it out
 

catsup948

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B east in MA will get snow for this Sunday or should I go to platty like orihanky planned never been to berskire e real want to check it out

Were in the trace to 2 inch range.

Maybe the GFS will finally be right for once. I doubt it. Here is monday night.
 

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hammer

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flatlands of Mass.
This storm will just make it harder to do stuff around home on Saturday...and make it harder to get out Sunday for skiing. Ugh.

Any chance that this will go at least far enough north to help southern NH?
 

catsup948

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If you're looking at the GFS it brings light snow Saturday night and a big time storm Monday. That may be where the extra snow is coming from.
 

BenedictGomez

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What is this big storm Monday? Is it real or is that too far out?

It's real, but I just ran all the 6-hour panels of the GFS and it doesnt seem like a big deal to me unless another model(s) depict it much bigger. Any snow is good snow though!
 
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