Manitoba Mauler 2.0: 2/15 threat

Boston Bulldog · Feb 11, 2015

Before I do an extensive meteorological write up on why I think this could be a potent storm, and why I think it'll happen, here's some bullet points.

-The Upper Level Low is modeled to close over Ontario/Lake Superior. Incredible!

-The disturbance was just sampled for the first time over Nunavut tonight, and models have swung west accordingly. This means that they detected nuances that's causing them to zero in on a hit.

-This is yet another energetic Mauler dropping down into an explosive setup, think a pool of lighter fluid and a blowtorch. A closed ULL hitting the Gulf Stream is going to produce fireworks.

-The Baroclinic Zone is expansive after the Friday miss and allows for an impressive easterly flow. = Abundant moisture/no need for the southern stream to advect north.

-I will be in Colorado while it's happening :roll:

BenedictGomez · Feb 11, 2015

It should be a potent storm, but it needs to come west for most of ski country. At the moment it's a potent storm for bluefish and coastal dwellers. Fingers crossed; the pattern has been pushing things west of depiction recently, so there is at least some hope.

EDIT: Nevermind, I wasnt paying attention and thought you were talking about one after that one. That's the one that really might turn into something good I think.

drjeff · Feb 12, 2015

Bitter temps with BIG winds, especially on Sunday AM with not much snow over *most* of New England ski country - this thing is going to be a monster, but likely not reach monster status until it's too far North and East of most of ski country.

Sunday will likely see plenty of wind holds and some harsh temps to get out and enjoy this sport we love so much

C-Rex · Feb 12, 2015

I don't know what most of the OP means, but using my powers of deduction I think it's going to snow. However, it'll be north and east of ski country so may have limited effect on the resorts. AmIright?

Abominable · Feb 12, 2015

Yeah yeah yeah sounds well thought out and all, but can we get some pretty, colorful maps with those deep purples right on top of Magic?

I'm not here for science, I'm here for the hype!

xwhaler · Feb 12, 2015

drjeff said:
Sunday will likely see plenty of wind holds and some harsh temps to get out and enjoy this sport we love so much

Looking to head to Crotched on Sunday. I wonder if their HSQ is prone to wind holds? Was going to do Wildcat but seems it will be brutally cold/windy up there that quad may not spin.

St. Bear · Feb 12, 2015

Weather.com

Abominable · Feb 12, 2015

Delivered!

Tin · Feb 12, 2015

GFS and CMC had this thing last weekend and dropped it Monday now it's back. They did a similar thing with Juno.

catsup948 · Feb 12, 2015

If we don't get total sand I could Berkshire East getting 6 inches of fluff out of this

catsup948 · Feb 12, 2015

I agree with BG Tuesday Wednesday is the one to watch for ski country. Low right over se mass

moresnow · Feb 12, 2015

Tin said:
GFS and CMC had this thing last weekend and dropped it Monday now it's back. They did a similar thing with Juno.

Who is Juno?

Are you talking about the city in Alaska? No, wait, that's spelled differently.

Oh, I know, it's that movie. Right?

If I was those models I'd drop that movie too.

Warp Daddy · Feb 12, 2015

We are being told 40 below windchill tonite and again sunday here along the St Lawrence River ..this has been a patternfor thepast couple of weeks 30 -35below windchills but THIS storm will be the coldest o far

Quietman · Feb 12, 2015

xwhaler said:
Looking to head to Crotched on Sunday. I wonder if their HSQ is prone to wind holds? Was going to do Wildcat but seems it will be brutally cold/windy up there that quad may not spin.

Crotched's quad rarely has wind holds, but it does happen occasionally.

hammer · Feb 12, 2015

Warp Daddy said:
We are being told 40 below windchill tonite and again sunday here along the St Lawrence River ..this has been a patternfor thepast couple of weeks 30 -35below windchills but THIS storm will be the coldest o far

Have you been getting much snow in NNY?

drjeff · Feb 12, 2015

Quietman said:
Crotched's quad rarely has wind holds, but it does happen occasionally.

My local Met, who is usually quite accurate, geeked out a bit on his weather blog this afternoon about how Sunday AM the real potential for 60-65mph gusts across Southern New England at least exists

catsup948 · Feb 12, 2015

This is going to be a big one for Maine! High ratio , windy.

BenedictGomez · Feb 12, 2015

First prediction map I've seen............

catsup948 · Feb 12, 2015

BenedictGomez said:
First prediction map I've seen............

I like the 6 inches for here. Going to blow nicely into the woods!

Warp Daddy · Feb 12, 2015

hammer said:
Have you been getting much snow in NNY?

. Yes we get buried every year . Snowbanks are approx 4/5 ft high inmy driveway have one across the street 9 ft high . Average depth in my yard about 3.5 ft.

But hey this is NNY , we are used ro it

Manitoba Mauler 2.0: 2/15 threat

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