Winter Forecast 2015-2016 - Page 2

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  1. #11
    marcski's Avatar
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    http://firsthandweather.com/930/earl...nal-breakdown/

    Northeast Forecast:



    If you’re familiar at all with what a lot of strong El Niño winters usually look like, you may be wondering why I have this entire region as being cold with typical snow. As I explained above, the very warm waters in the northeast Pacific have not dissipated, and even though we have plenty of time for it to break down from the west, it still could be there in some form by this winter. These warmer waters do have the ability to affect the overall long-wave pattern in the U.S., and as we saw the last two winters, it can create a wavy and amplified jet stream, pushing Arctic air south into this region. While it’s difficult to say just how cold this region will be at this point, I do believe that several intrusions of Arctic air are possible. I don’t expect snowfall to be nearly as high as last year in places like Boston but decent snowfall totals should occur for many of these regions. Conditions should be drier overall in the Ohio Valley, but the amount of snowfall that the area gets this winter is still a bit of a wildcard. I should have a lot more information in the fall for this region as there are still some fairly sizable uncertainties.

  2. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by marcski View Post
    http://firsthandweather.com/930/earl...nal-breakdown/

    Northeast Forecast:

    If you’re familiar at all with what a lot of strong El Niño winters usually look like, you may be wondering why I have this entire region as being cold with typical snow. As I explained above, the very warm waters in the northeast Pacific have not dissipated, and even though we have plenty of time for it to break down from the west, it still could be there in some form by this winter. These warmer waters do have the ability to affect the overall long-wave pattern in the U.S., and as we saw the last two winters, it can create a wavy and amplified jet stream, pushing Arctic air south into this region. While it’s difficult to say just how cold this region will be at this point, I do believe that several intrusions of Arctic air are possible. I don’t expect snowfall to be nearly as high as last year in places like Boston but decent snowfall totals should occur for many of these regions. Conditions should be drier overall in the Ohio Valley, but the amount of snowfall that the area gets this winter is still a bit of a wildcard. I should have a lot more information in the fall for this region as there are still some fairly sizable uncertainties.
    Looking at the map I have a curious question ,How does Montana- Wisconsin end up much warmer and Arkansas -Maine end up cold ?
    if the cold air comes from the artic...and the "Ridge "or "Blob " factors in ......Hmmmm?

  3. #13

  4. #14
    ALLSKIING's Avatar
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    They don't have a clue more then 3 days out and even then they can get it wrong.
    Dave
    11/12 Season 13
    12/13 Season 17
    13/14 Season 22
    14/15 Season 30
    15/16 Season 24
    16/17 Season 32
    17/18 Season 5

  5. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by ALLSKIING View Post
    They don't have a clue more then 3 days out and even then they can get it wrong.
    These guys nailed the last two winter forecasts,around the end of August they put out an official one.
    Hoping there is more warm water off Alaska than what they have in the first run.

  6. #16
    ALLSKIING's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siliconebobsquarepants View Post
    These guys nailed the last two winter forecasts,around the end of August they put out an official one.
    Hoping there is more warm water off Alaska than what they have in the first run.
    I know what your saying but for me they were way to specific to even pay attention. For instance "all the snow for the NE may come in one big nor'easter" really?
    Dave
    11/12 Season 13
    12/13 Season 17
    13/14 Season 22
    14/15 Season 30
    15/16 Season 24
    16/17 Season 32
    17/18 Season 5

  7. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by ALLSKIING View Post
    I know what your saying but for me they were way to specific to even pay attention. For instance "all the snow for the NE may come in one big nor'easter" really?
    I took his comments from a Lehigh valley perspective , We get 35" annually and a 2' storm is significant.
    In "82" I left home a day after a mid Feb 2'storm and ended up jumping water bars a K's 4 mile trail.

  8. #18
    Yesterday at Sunshine Village

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  9. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Siliconebobsquarepants View Post
    These guys nailed the last two winter forecasts,around the end of August they put out an official one.
    Hoping there is more warm water off Alaska than what they have in the first run.
    A broken clock is right twice per day.


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  10. #20
    I'll take it. After the past two winters, less cold is a good thing.

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