This thing is over...OTS
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Hurricane Joaquin
- Thread starter ctenidae
- Start date
Abubob
Well-known member
Tin
Active member
Just have to wait and see how far west this thing travels before it gets going north.
I can't figure out if the National Hurricane Center is going for the most likely situation or track error. Most likely would have written this thing off already and not spreading panic up and down the coast. Declaring a state of emergency like NJ did just builds the panic and when a future storm hits people will not heed the warnings.
EDIT: As I wrote this the NHC released this...
No hard hook. No OTS despite GFS and Euro agreement. WTF is going on.
I can't figure out if the National Hurricane Center is going for the most likely situation or track error. Most likely would have written this thing off already and not spreading panic up and down the coast. Declaring a state of emergency like NJ did just builds the panic and when a future storm hits people will not heed the warnings.
EDIT: As I wrote this the NHC released this...
No hard hook. No OTS despite GFS and Euro agreement. WTF is going on.
Last edited:
steamboat1
New member
Don't think that's going to happen again. The weather guys were beating the drums when Irene hit & nothing of significance happened along the shore. When they beat the drums for Sandy no one paid much attention. Boy were they wrong.Just have to wait and see how far west this thing travels before it gets going north.
I can't figure out if the National Hurricane Center is going for the most likely situation or track error. Most likely would have written this thing off already and not spreading panic up and down the coast. Declaring a state of emergency like NJ did just builds the panic and when a future storm hits people will not heed the warnings.
EDIT: As I wrote this the NHC released this...
No hard hook. WTF is going on.
Tin
Active member
People have short memories.
andrec10
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Guess they don't remember Sandy taking a quick left turn!
marcski
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That probably has more to do with Christie and the big man's desire for media coverage and less to do with Joaquin.
Tin
Active member
Haha. 5pm update should have the eastern shift on the track. If not, there is a lot more going on. They might gradually tick it east over the next several updates.
The storm did look a bit west of where the EURO initialized, given the ULL and other stuff at play 50 miles could be a major shift in track.
Whitey
Member
What brings you to the island for a week in the off-season? I just cancelled my plans for a long weekend there and have a lot of Nantucket ties.
The high in the atlantic was favorable a couple of days ago but is now non existent. Very small chances of landfall here but ya never know.
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steamboat1
New member
Which was predicted by some.
Predicted by all except the euro which(if this goes ots) has been locked in for days now. Kinda makes me mad that the euro model can be so superior at times.
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Tin
Active member
NAM still has an east coast land fall and it is been correct when others said no (2010 Boxing Day).
Piece of advice from a Pro: forget the NAM for tropical systems. The 18Z run on Tuesday actually crashed... Twice... Apparently due to the air-sea coupling parameterization.
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ss20
Well-known member
11pm update out... don't even bother looking at it
No landfall (for Canada as well) and I doubt that Cape Cod will even get TS force winds. Monday and Tuesday will be sunny where I am in western CT.
No landfall (for Canada as well) and I doubt that Cape Cod will even get TS force winds. Monday and Tuesday will be sunny where I am in western CT.
Its been terrible this whole process. It can be right at times but not with tropical systems. It was having major problems even picking up the storm even after it was a TS. I guess crazier things have happened but it cant really be taken seriously atm.
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Tin
Active member
Figured as much, just didn't understand the NHC spreading the panic.
ctenidae
Active member
It is interesting that all the models have moved east to agree with the ECMWF, but the Euro has moved west a touch to agree with the rest. Not a big enough shift to worry, of course, but from a pure pattern recognition perspective, it's interesting.
Puck it
Well-known member
We go every year since the mid 90's in the summer. In the last 8 years we have been doing late JUne to beat the crowds. We started going about 5 years ago in the early fall for my wife's birthday too.
from_the_NEK
Active member
Anyone going surfing Tuesday? Should be a good swell coming in.
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