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Christmas week...

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Man, did this look ugly 36 hours ago. Don't get me wrong, Christmas Eve and day are going to be disasters for the mountains, but the following week looks serviceable as of right now.

The 12z GFS and EURO runs have decided that it's time to pump the PNA and break down the ridge for the 28th through New Years. Is this a large scale pattern change? No, but it the EURO is showing our first shot of legitimate cold air coming through the region next Monday. The GFS is a little more hesitant but does get solid snowmaking temps into NE.

Accompanying this cold shot is a storm which appears to be a... cutter:thumbdown:, but upon closer examination it appears like we have more of a SWFE event on our hands. The source of this cold, a projected 1035mb+ High Pressure looks to hold stout over us and keep the warm sector at bay in SNE. The result, a wintry thump for the Ski Areas. The Ensembles also show a slug of moisture hitting this wall of hypothetical cold air as well. Hmmmmm...

While this is not a guaruntee, the fact that the PNA is showing signs of relenting from this terrible pattern is giving this possible time period some credence. Model support is almost universal:roll:, but that is always bound to chance. Let's see how the next couple of days of model runs unfold. Nonetheless, look for this dreadful pattern to break down during Jan, but Christmas Week may be a welcome respite.
 
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JDMRoma

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Thanks for the glimmer of hope. !
We can all use some positive thoughts

Time for some serious Snow dancing !
❄️❄️❄️❄️🚠❄️❄️❄️🚠❄️❄️


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catsup948

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18z GFS which is always a bit snow happy is trending both the Sunday and Tuesday storms in better directions. Let's see how this goes. Tuesday is the one to watch more.
 

Tin

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Silly 12z. RI goes from 70* on Christmas Eve to 20" of snow on the ground for New Year's Eve LOL
 
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EURO and GFS are looking good as of right now. That band seems to be expanding as the High is modeled to get stronger. Good stuff. Shame it's 100+ hours out
 
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Textbook SWFE event right here. Southwest flow of moisture into a stout cold high pressure. If that low can transition to the coast, we may have something bigger.
 

yeggous

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I'll be in North Conway from Friday night 12/25 until Sunday 1/3.

I just put my snow tires on yesterday. It's game time.
 
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18z GFS thumps Central VT-Central NH. Nearly a foot verbatim for Killington-Waterville and south to Crotched and Mt Snow.

Look if you dare.

yZTzc4X.jpg

If this scenario is the truth, go 6-10 inches for the area. Widespread 12+ is unrealistic for this type of system.
 

yeggous

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18z GFS thumps Central VT-Central NH. Nearly a foot verbatim for Killington-Waterville and south to Ragged and Okemo.

Whatever you're smoking you could at least share. 18Z GFS is a hot mess. Will leave just a pile of slush in it's wake.

More importantly, it's way to early too start commenting on run-to-run variance in a specific operational model, especially on 06/18Z cycles.
 

Tin

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That 18z is a mess. No matter what, whether it is 5" or 15", this is just a base builder, concrete and ice. Not enough to really get things open.
 

The Sneak

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15" of base building cement would be a godsend.

Putting the snow tires on Sunday.


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ss20

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Whatever you're smoking you could at least share. 18Z GFS is a hot mess. Will leave just a pile of slush in it's wake.

More importantly, it's way to early too start commenting on run-to-run variance in a specific operational model, especially on 06/18Z cycles.

That 18z is a mess. No matter what, whether it is 5" or 15", this is just a base builder, concrete and ice. Not enough to really get things open.

Christ, don't kill the messenger! You guys are acting like we're coming off three 2 foot snowstorms within the last week and this will ruin it. Not acting like we've had the worst December in NE history. SNOW! Remember, SNOW!

The earlier the better for this storm. Monday night arrival could mean we see the totals on that map. A Tuesday @ noon arrival would bring nothing but ice holds and downed power lines.

I'm hoping the snow line ticks south to I-84 in CT. I'm hoping to teach this first weekend of January!
 

billski

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First call for Dec 29/30, Tue/Wed 2015

Several of my sources are of a growing consensus that we may see a measurable amount of heavy, wet snow during this period. That will be followed by one day of warm up, then it gets cool again for the snow makers to wind up.

Way too early for any details on the exact timing or how much, but it seems clear it will cover the whole region.
 

deadheadskier

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Moved

Seriously Bill. Before making a "First Call", take a look at the forums.

This was already being discussed. It was one of the very first weather threads in the subforum.
 
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