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NWS 2016 / 2017 Winter forecast!

BenedictGomez

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Holy crap. Just saw the Weather Channel predictions for this weekend. Biggest question is Stratton, Okemo or Killington (is Pico still open?)?

Yup, this has been trending nicely like I thought it would. The good thing is given it's end of season there's no pressure for you to book, you can wait for more model runs. IMO, even though the southern VT mountains are depicted as jackpotting, they're still at risk. I'm headed to n.VT, which will probably do almost as well, but will have superior conditions and terrain.
 

Glenn

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Looks like SoVT is under a Winter Storm Watch. The Albany forecast discussion hints to those changing to a warning if needed. They're still saying 4" in the Valley areas and 7" of snow in higher terrain. And sounds like it'll be a heavy, wet snow. I'm not complaining! I'll take any snow this time of the year.
 

Glenn

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NWS seems really conservative compared to other forecasts on this one. Guess we'll have to see what the noon/afternoon update says. Should have a good idea of the track and temp since it's less than 24 hours out.
 

cdskier

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I'll take the over as well. Josh Fox in his blog as of yesterday was still saying higher elevations in the MRV area could see 8-12. Lower elevations though are where NWS may be right and numbers should be more conservative.

Either way, this storm could cause some travel disruptions on Friday for people trying to get up in the afternoon/evening. I'm not crazy about driving 5 hours late tonight after work by myself, but I think it may be a better option than worrying about getting up there tomorrow. I'll just work remotely from the lodge in the morning and then can always ski in the afternoon.
 

bdfreetuna

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keep the faith
FYI latest NAM shows this hitting northern VT + NH + NY over southern VT (like it was previously seeming)

Foot and a half potential for a lot of places up there.
 

BenedictGomez

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Either way, this storm could cause some travel disruptions on Friday for people trying to get up in the afternoon/evening. I'm not crazy about driving 5 hours late tonight after work by myself, but I think it may be a better option than worrying about getting up there tomorrow.

I've been watching this system for a week now and on Monday told my gf to take Friday off as she needs to give at least 4 days notice. I'm leaving for n.VT at 4:30pm today, and skiing Jay Peak tomorrow as it's far enough north to avoid any wind problems that may affect other places, then retreating a bit farther south and hitting what hopefully should be a snow day at Smuggs. This is the plan, just need it to all come together.

568ec9df07e185f0a4562474962eefc8.jpg
 

cdskier

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I've been watching this system for a week now and on Monday told my gf to take Friday off as she needs to give at least 4 days notice. I'm leaving for n.VT at 4:30pm today, and skiing Jay Peak tomorrow as it's far enough north to avoid any wind problems that may affect other places, then retreating a bit farther south and hitting what hopefully should be a snow day at Smuggs. This is the plan, just need it to all come together.

I need to give a few days notice too and didn't realize the impact early enough. That's why my plan is to work remotely Friday morning from the lodge at Sugarbush after driving up tonight lol. I want to leave around 5pm tonight.
 

BenedictGomez

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I need to give a few days notice too and didn't realize the impact early enough. That's why my plan is to work remotely Friday morning from the lodge at Sugarbush after driving up tonight lol. I want to leave around 5pm tonight.

The good news is this will catch people by surprise, and many will not choose to drive in this after ~1pm Friday, which will hopefully lead to fewer people on the slopes Saturday.
 

cdskier

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Yup, I'm counting on that happening as well. Combine that with the fact that we'll be into April where numbers drop off anyway and it could be a great weekend with limited crowds.
 

tumbler

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I think the roads will be more wet for most of Friday up to central Vt. Heavy stuff not forecasted to come unit overnight Friday. I'm going to leave a bit earleir than ususal Friday. Crowds should be lighter as spring sports and obligations are in full force but I dont think it will be empty.
 

MommaBear

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Headed home from Southern VT this morning and saw a number of vehicles on the back roads (RT2/112 from Greenfield) headed north with skis. Thinking they were getting a jump on the snow. I will be one of those driving back up Friday night to northern VT (I'm self employed, but the other half can't leave early due to someone else being on vacation). Good to hear the roads may not be as bad as I was expecting.
 

Jully

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FYI latest NAM shows this hitting northern VT + NH + NY over southern VT (like it was previously seeming)

Foot and a half potential for a lot of places up there.

Gotta watch this closely. Was thinking of doing So. NH (Ragged or Crotch), but I might now be looking farther north for fewer crowds and higher elevation.
 

Glenn

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Big gap between most likely and potential: http://www.weather.gov/aly/winter

Edit: The above is only through 4/1 8PM. Doesn't count the overnight.

Should see an update later this afternoon...regarding if they keep this a watch or upgrade to a warning.
 

cdskier

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NWS Burlington has upped the Advisory to a Warning for the MRV area. Now they are calling for 5-10 in the warned area...higher elevations could do better as well just with the snow being less dense.
 

tumbler

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Density is the wild card. Too much and it is not much fun to ski. Let other people push it around then get it.
 
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