weekend of 12/17-18?

[yeggous]

Ok. What I was looking at was Euro and GFS average temps Christmas-week posted to a Met Facebook page last night. Euro was blowtorch, GFS had us below average still.

But I'm not gonna repost that here, and defer to your greater experience on weather in regard to the topic at hand.

Question: do you see the Sunday warm up lasting more than 24 hours before it dips back into cold? I'm not seeing next week as unseasonably warm. Curious how you conclude that. Not experienced interpreting meteograms you posted.

Here is a good page for ensemble animations:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analy...xpos=0&ypos=92

[bdfreetuna]

Here is a good page for ensemble animations:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analy...xpos=0&ypos=92

thanks.. usually check Tidbits daily but mainly for the GFS snowfall totals. Will start paying attention to GEFS too.

[Tin]

Typical Christmas meltdown. No worries. Let the tourists and gappers enjoy the boilerplate and man made junk. Another 4-6"+, with rain/zr, and cold would make a hell of a base in the woods and side, I'm all for it as I don't ski holiday weeks barring some epic event.

As far as modeling precip, Euro has gone to shit. Prior to this week's Sun-Mon event the GFS has had a serious north and west bias when modeling pressure centers so I'm not jumping ship yet when it comes to the cutters it has modeled. 4km NAM and 3km NAMX have been money for getting the elevation bomb deals as well as upslope/LES. A little juiced at times for the Berks as all NAM models seem to believe it stays colder in western Mass than it does but pretty damn good for the spine of VT, Whites, and Maine.

[tnt1234]

We're skiing SB/MRG 12/29-1/1. Longest forecast I can find has it cold to the 27th....here's hoping!

This weekend looks to me like Saturday morning in the catskills might be worth the drive, then it's all a mess....

[ALLSKIING]

We're skiing SB/MRG 12/29-1/1. Longest forecast I can find has it cold to the 27th....here's hoping!

This weekend looks to me like Saturday morning in the catskills might be worth the drive, then it's all a mess....

There will be a warm up around Xmas. To early to tell how warm...some models say blowtorch some don't.

Sent from my LG-H901 using AlpineZone mobile app

[tnt1234]

This forum is a great resource.

Anyone care to take a stab at Catskills this Saturday? some sites call it snow till PM with good accumulation in the AM. Which would be worth it I suppose...

Thanks in advance and hope everyone gets something this weekend.

[ss20]

Saturday will be lot's of fun. Sunday not-so-much. Gonna hit Mount Snow Saturday and book it home, if I'm not teaching.

[RHODYTURNS]

Latest update on The Weather Channel shows 8-12 inches during the day on Saturday in Pinkham Notch. I don't see any other sites predicting such a large snow event. Is TWC getting me excited over nothing?

[Tin]

As of now the Whites appear to make out best with a solid front end thump before the rain. However, the winds could do some damage.

[bdfreetuna]

Latest update on The Weather Channel shows 8-12 inches during the day on Saturday in Pinkham Notch. I don't see any other sites predicting such a large snow event. Is TWC getting me excited over nothing?

Mount Snow looks to do well also (8-12) along with Wildcat (8-12) @ Weather Underground.

One I have been watching that has been showing more of a warm up for Sunday (especially high elevation) is mountain-forecast.com , which if I'm not mistaken uses some ensemble of models. Over the course of the last day they have moderated their temperature spike for Sunday, but they do still remain on the warmer side and showing less front side snowy precip to this.

Even taking their forecast as a worst case scenario though I'm not really worried about any damage being done Sunday and looks increasingly safe to say net gain for anywhere in VT or NH with any kind of elevation. I hope we're seeing a trend in the models and not a bounce, this winter might not be ready to give up on being an over performer. Furthermore there is ample opportunity for resurfacing early-mid next week.

Beyond that I'm not gonna venture as it's been discussed by folks with more knowledge earlier today in this thead.