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weekend of 12/17-18?

yeggous

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Friday will be $&@!ing cold. Saturday should be excellent. Sunday will likely feature the unspeakable.


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Tin

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If you have not been able to get out and enjoy the conditions do so ASAP. Southern VT and NH look to be having a massive melt down.
 

bdfreetuna

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If you have not been able to get out and enjoy the conditions do so ASAP. Southern VT and NH look to be having a massive melt down.

Just based on Sunday or you talking Christmas?

I'm not so bearish on the weekend, we need base anyway and it looks like probably a net gain.

What I'm looking at is 4-8" snow followed by some rain / freezing rain / ice. Yeah not gonna be fun to ski right away but this is what the mountains need to set us up for the long run.

Prior to that we have some mountain snow likely Wed - Thurs, which is why I say this week is a net gain. After Sunday looks like we're back into active weather pattern as well.
 
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bdfreetuna

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GFS and we're good, really good. Euro and we start getting cranky around here. Long range, Christmas week.

Sunday I think either way is so brief and preceeded on the front end with a little whallop it's just gonna give what we got a helmet of icy protection. If you go by GFS it might be a 90%-100% snow event in the hills.
 

yeggous

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GFS and we're good, really good. Euro and we start getting cranky around here. Long range, Christmas week.

Sunday I think either way is so brief and preceeded on the front end with a little whallop it's just gonna give what we got a helmet of icy protection. If you go by GFS it might be a 90%-100% snow event in the hills.

Are you talking about the week between Christmas and New Years? That is out there is the great unknown.

In the interim things are going to warm and wet. Whether this weekend will be a net loss of base snow is questionable. Cold air damming is very difficult to handle this far out. Sometimes areas like North Conway make out okay hold onto freezing rain while the higher elevations get blow torched. My initial suspicions is that the cold air may hang tough and the warm air could end up mostly aloft, but there is a lot of it coming. And there's not a lot of cold behind it.

1-8day_meteogram.jpg
9-16day_meteogram.jpg
 

bdfreetuna

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Ok. What I was looking at was Euro and GFS average temps Christmas-week posted to a Met Facebook page last night. Euro was blowtorch, GFS had us below average still.

But I'm not gonna repost that here, and defer to your greater experience on weather in regard to the topic at hand.

Question: do you see the Sunday warm up lasting more than 24 hours before it dips back into cold? I'm not seeing next week as unseasonably warm. Curious how you conclude that. Not experienced interpreting meteograms you posted.
 

yeggous

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Ok. What I was looking at was Euro and GFS average temps Christmas-week posted to a Met Facebook page last night. Euro was blowtorch, GFS had us below average still.

But I'm not gonna repost that here, and defer to your greater experience on weather in regard to the topic at hand.

Question: do you see the Sunday warm up lasting more than 24 hours before it dips back into cold? I'm not seeing next week as unseasonably warm. Curious how you conclude that. Not experienced interpreting meteograms you posted.

Here is a good page for ensemble animations:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...=z500a&runtime=2016121312&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=92
 

Tin

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Typical Christmas meltdown. No worries. Let the tourists and gappers enjoy the boilerplate and man made junk. Another 4-6"+, with rain/zr, and cold would make a hell of a base in the woods and side, I'm all for it as I don't ski holiday weeks barring some epic event.

As far as modeling precip, Euro has gone to shit. Prior to this week's Sun-Mon event the GFS has had a serious north and west bias when modeling pressure centers so I'm not jumping ship yet when it comes to the cutters it has modeled. 4km NAM and 3km NAMX have been money for getting the elevation bomb deals as well as upslope/LES. A little juiced at times for the Berks as all NAM models seem to believe it stays colder in western Mass than it does but pretty damn good for the spine of VT, Whites, and Maine.
 

tnt1234

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We're skiing SB/MRG 12/29-1/1. Longest forecast I can find has it cold to the 27th....here's hoping!

This weekend looks to me like Saturday morning in the catskills might be worth the drive, then it's all a mess....
 

ALLSKIING

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We're skiing SB/MRG 12/29-1/1. Longest forecast I can find has it cold to the 27th....here's hoping!

This weekend looks to me like Saturday morning in the catskills might be worth the drive, then it's all a mess....
There will be a warm up around Xmas. To early to tell how warm...some models say blowtorch some don't.

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tnt1234

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This forum is a great resource.

Anyone care to take a stab at Catskills this Saturday? some sites call it snow till PM with good accumulation in the AM. Which would be worth it I suppose...

Thanks in advance and hope everyone gets something this weekend.
 

RHODYTURNS

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Latest update on The Weather Channel shows 8-12 inches during the day on Saturday in Pinkham Notch. I don't see any other sites predicting such a large snow event. Is TWC getting me excited over nothing?
 

Tin

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As of now the Whites appear to make out best with a solid front end thump before the rain. However, the winds could do some damage.
 

bdfreetuna

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Latest update on The Weather Channel shows 8-12 inches during the day on Saturday in Pinkham Notch. I don't see any other sites predicting such a large snow event. Is TWC getting me excited over nothing?

Mount Snow looks to do well also (8-12) along with Wildcat (8-12) @ Weather Underground.

One I have been watching that has been showing more of a warm up for Sunday (especially high elevation) is mountain-forecast.com , which if I'm not mistaken uses some ensemble of models. Over the course of the last day they have moderated their temperature spike for Sunday, but they do still remain on the warmer side and showing less front side snowy precip to this.

Even taking their forecast as a worst case scenario though I'm not really worried about any damage being done Sunday and looks increasingly safe to say net gain for anywhere in VT or NH with any kind of elevation. I hope we're seeing a trend in the models and not a bounce, this winter might not be ready to give up on being an over performer. Furthermore there is ample opportunity for resurfacing early-mid next week.

Beyond that I'm not gonna venture as it's been discussed by folks with more knowledge earlier today in this thead.
 
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