Vail to buy Stowe?

Here is a complete crackpot theory: The deal for everything including the real estate was agreed to, but the real estate end of things was going to hold up the deal. Vail wanted to run Stowe in time to set season pass prices for next season, so the closing on the entire resort is happening in stages.

Considering Vail's vast ski area portfolio and what they're capable of, buying Smuggs and combining the two makes a lot of sense. Given the location and average snowfall, that area is one of the safer eastern bets. And Smuggs is ripe for a total redo of lifts and lodging.

farlep99 said:

Great point & I think a re-visit of the real estate in the future by Vail & MMC is inevitable. Because other than increasing the number of Epic passes sold, what is Vail really buying? Yeah they can run the resort & make some money on that, but there isn't exactly exciting growth potential there. Again, how much more can they grow skier visits/profits/etc with the current infrastructure? Maybe a little. So while I don't think it will be losing the company any money (although if there are more winters like last year there will be down years) it's not really a big gainer either. Of course other than the increased Epic pass sales & presumed trips out west to Vail owned resorts.

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Buying the real estate would be expensive. Unless having mountain ops and real estate under separate ownership is a large problem, buying the real estate is a big gamble. Does anyone know of other resorts where real estate and mountain ops are owned by two different people?

benski said:

Buying the real estate would be expensive. Unless having mountain ops and real estate under separate ownership is a large problem, buying the real estate is a big gamble. Does anyone know of other resorts where real estate and mountain ops are owned by two different people?

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Isn't killington like that?

Jully said:

I still personally feel that the best west option for the east is the Max pass. I think that Max will be the entity that represents the biggest competitor to Vail's eastern move and to a lesser extent the resorts tied to it.

How many people skiing K for $1,000 plus a $250 Max add on to go west will now ski Stowe and out west for > $400 less? I legitimately don't know how big that number is going to be, but I think that question (for all Max Add-On resorts) is where the biggest potential for shake up in the eastern ski world lies.

It is not a major innovation to have western options on an eastern pass. The Max pass was really the pass that started that game (MC to a lesser extent), so I'm not sure how many eastern only skiers (like a lot of Sugarbush's skiers) Vail will gain versus just taking market share from other passes with western options.

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It all depends where you want to ski or vacation. We chose Max Pass because it gave us options in the places we ski including Vermont/New Hampshire/Utah and Colorado. We bought the pass, then planned the trips. Its been a fun season so far.

But in the future I may want to travel to the Epic resorts and the addition of Stowe is a step in the direction that would make me consider buying it. Certainly if one has thoughts of skiing in Tahoe, Epic is worth it. Another eastern resort might swing the pendulum.

My wife and I are trying to swing an Aspen trip with some very good friends one of these years, so Mountain Collective would be the way to go on that one and its got some great partner options as well.

I don't have a problem with these travel and vacation promotions. Seems to me that with a little time and research you can really achieve a good variety at a decent price.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

cdskier said:

I think potential crowds you could see at Stowe with the Epic pass potential price-point would be a very strong selling point for other areas like Sugarbush. Maybe the first year people jump ship to Stowe, but after dealing with crowds I could see some people come back to SB. My prediction is SB either keeps pricing flat or reduces it slightly (maybe ~$50-100). People often point to SB as being one of the pricier places, yet at the same time SB also offers a tremendous amount of pass options now where the age range that is paying full price keeps getting narrower and narrower.

No matter what, it will be interesting to watch how this plays out.

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Stowe has me thinking. I am a SB pass holder family of four. My family decided to forgo the trip out west each year and instead do a seasonal rental and season passes at SB. While my kids turn 13 next season and I will not be able to get the family season pass discount next year. My wife and I were thinking about trying stowe because we will be able to go out west now and have lift tickets covered. but also my season pass cost at SB is going to increase over $700 dollars for the family next year. Thats a lot.

VT is facing huge economic challenges with their existing programs and funding.

This Smuggs specultation is hilarious.
Did we somehow miss news of a Repeal of Act 250?

Without a $2M/bear fee or an Environmental Protection Fee, MTN ain't going to install as much as a zip line over Sterling Pond.

Look for an increase in VT food and beverage taxes this spring.

So Stowe will no longer be part of the Mountain Collective Pass so that Pass Product will lose some luster in the Northeast!

As someone who has the MAX Pass and has traveled West this year, I am all in favor of this. Stowe is very nice and I enjoyed riding there a lot using my VT Ski 3 Pass last season. Otherwise, their ticket rates are just too expensive - the only other reasonable option is the Club Days (not a bad deal).

Until this season, I have always just hunted for deals and never ridden anywhere outside of New England. The MAX Pass has provided us with some nice local diversity with their New England options and we have also traveled out West twice this season - Copper in Colorado and Big Sky in Montana. To begin the season, we only planned to use the MAX Pass in New England.

Both trips were fantastic experiences and I hope to be able to travel West next season also.

Maybe this drives MAX to add more resorts in New England and out West - that would be great.
Maybe this drives another collective pass in New England and possible some West - that would be great.

The negative impacts of this will be felt by those who live in/near Stowe and ski/ride there locally. Crowds will rise, no other way around it. Especially if the EPIC Pass stays at $800, that's 1/2 price for a Stowe season pass plus basically free lift tickets to some Western resorts. That makes an awful lot of sense.

dlague said:

So Stowe will no longer be part of the Mountain Collective Pass so that Pass Product will lose some luster in the Northeast!

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The roll out of Pass products coming out next month is going to be very interesting. We'll know more in about 2 weeks.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

jaybird said:

VT is facing huge economic challenges with their existing programs and funding.

This Smuggs specultation is hilarious.
Did we somehow miss news of a Repeal of Act 250?

Without a $2M/bear fee or an Environmental Protection Fee, MTN ain't going to install as much as a zip line over Sterling Pond.

Look for an increase in VT food and beverage taxes this spring.

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$2M chump change to Vail!

jaybird said:

VT is facing huge economic challenges with their existing programs and funding.

This Smuggs specultation is hilarious.
Did we somehow miss news of a Repeal of Act 250?

Without a $2M/bear fee or an Environmental Protection Fee, MTN ain't going to install as much as a zip line over Sterling Pond.

Look for an increase in VT food and beverage taxes this spring.

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There's no need to construct a lift over Sterling pond - it would get pretty close though.

I agree with your sentiments on VT's government budget situation. The government is very lucky that so many people like to visit and spend money in their state. It would be in their best interest to be pro-development. I suspect they'll try to squeeze as much out of Vail and its customers as they can before ultimately letting them do most of what they would want. It will be interesting to follow.

Yup selfishly I liked Stowe on the MC... with the 3rd day there and the amount of days I am up there it was a great product for me to combine with a western trip. I will consider the Epic Pass as well, especially with Whistler in the mix. Wonder if Sugarbush could be a MC add? Would assume they don't want to lose the east completely from that pass.

But again... mountain road and parking. No local but as someone that is up there 4-5 times a year, this season has been a schit show.

Additional details in this article from Seven Days:

http://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessa...purchase-stowe-mountain-resort-for-50-million

1. Given it's late February I'm sure the major resorts have figured out what their season pass prices will be next year, and the marketing team is printing up the signs and posters already. No way mountains are going to re-evaluate their pass prices in the two weeks before pass prices are rolled out. No way. It's pretty set in stone, I'd imagine. And a competing multi-mountain pass in the NE is out-of-the-question given the timeframe here.

What Vail did makes total sense- wait till the other mountains are sitting pretty, then surprise them when it's too late to make any big changes.

2. I see a total pissing match coming between Vail and AIG. They have no reason to help each other. Vail wants people to go to Stowe then go out west. To do that they won't have lodging deals with AIG and their on-hill properties. Why would they? Vail wants that money spent out west in Vail hotels. High(er) day ticket prices and no stay/ski deals. Whatever it takes to sell Epic passes.

3. You are crazy if you think there'll be any real improvement to the hill. Stowe is modern enough for Vail. Toll House replacement is ridiculous. That lift is pretty new, and replacing it will not bring traffic down there without more development. As for more development...this is Vermont...so yeah, that's not happening.

4. Parking issues? If you drive to a mountain in Vail's portfolio, you aren't fitting into their business model, and aren't worth shit to them, so forget about any improvement there.


What's interesting here is Vail wanted the East Coast with a major resort...that we know. They got the hill, not the "resort" aspect though. So do they treat it as a feeder hill? Or as a resort (where they don't own the lodging)?

I bet whatever does happen for Vail the next couple of years will decide Vail's future in the EC market. In ten years perhaps this will all be a failure, with Stowe sold to another operator. Maybe Vail will have another destination resort. Maybe they'll go the feeder hill route. Definitely testing the waters in a big way.

ss20 said:

1. Given it's late February I'm sure the major resorts have figured out what their season pass prices will be next year, and the marketing team is printing up the signs and posters already. No way mountains are going to re-evaluate their pass prices in the two weeks before pass prices are rolled out. No way. It's pretty set in stone, I'd imagine. And a competing multi-mountain pass in the NE is out-of-the-question given the timeframe here.

What Vail did makes total sense- wait till the other mountains are sitting pretty, then surprise them when it's too late to make any big changes.

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I disagree with this. Last year SB put their passes on sale on 3/18. That gives them almost a month to make changes if they wanted to (granted I'm still in the boat where I wouldn't expect any major price changes from SB at least for the first year to see what happens). Even if they had printed up marketing materials already, the cost of re-printing them vs the cost of potential lost business if they realized they over-priced their pass would be easy to justify.

2. I see a total pissing match coming between Vail and AIG. They have no reason to help each other. Vail wants people to go to Stowe then go out west. To do that they won't have lodging deals with AIG and their on-hill properties. Why would they? Vail wants that money spent out west in Vail hotels. High(er) day ticket prices and no stay/ski deals. Whatever it takes to sell Epic passes.

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This is an interesting point and I've had that thought on my mind too a bit. I wonder if there's anything in the purchase contract where they specifically state they will still do ski and stay deals. There very well could be. If not, I'm still not sure they would each tell each other to basically f**k off. Doing so and annoying customers at Stowe isn't in Vail's best interests imo. If people have a bad experience at Stowe, they might not simply go west and instead might just go to another local choice instead the following year. Conversely, AIG wants Vail to do well with Stowe as it helps the value of their lodging and real estate properties.

cdskier said:

Doing so and annoying customers at Stowe isn't in Vail's best interests imo. If people have a bad experience at Stowe, they might not simply go west and instead might just go to another local choice instead the following year.

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Or would the annoyed customers go west to seek a better experience to one of the destinations on their Epic Pass...? This is Stowe clientele still, so money isn't an issue for most of the existing passholder base.

ss20 said:

4. Parking issues? If you drive to a mountain in Vail's portfolio, you aren't fitting into their business model, and aren't worth shit to them, so forget about any improvement there.

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Yeah, nobody drives to Stowe, Wilmot, Alton Alps, or Mt. Brighton. Nobody who's anybody, that is. /sarcasm

You can expect paid parking...not all but if you want to get in somewhat close you will pay.


Vail already knows if this is a good decision or not...they're likely all in on this I'm sure. They will do whatever it takes to make a quality ski experience that entices people. It may piss off locals and the type of skier that post here...but you better believe they will appeal to the masses. This is what they do and they're very good at it.

For the Bush, joining the Max Pass is the obvious move. It might even be enticing for them to test the waters with the White Mountain Super Pass. It's the other major multi-mountain player.


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