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Bali volcano eruption thought imminent

BenedictGomez

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...and...skiing...because????

It's one of the larger volcanoes, and large eruptions can have a global cooling effect of a degree or two which can last for months.

That might not sound like much, but if throughout your winter it always would have been.....say.... 2 degrees warmer, cumulatively that can have a pretty big effect on snow totals.

f9e.gif
 

bdfreetuna

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The effects on solar radiation would be mostly noticeable in the southern hemisphere though.

Overall not worth hoping for.
 

Jully

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The effects on solar radiation would be mostly noticeable in the southern hemisphere though.

Overall not worth hoping for.

Definitely not worth hoping for given the hundreds if not thousands of homes that would be destroyed, but an average of a degree colder could have an impact. Far from hoping, but something to watch!
 

BenedictGomez

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The effects on solar radiation would be mostly noticeable in the southern hemisphere though.

Overall not worth hoping for.


The effects of past Indonesian volcanic winters have had a big effect in the eastern United States.

During the largest recorded event, it snowed in June in New York, and there was frost in Connecticut and Massachusetts in August (SEE: The Year Without a Summer).
 

bdfreetuna

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The effects of past Indonesian volcanic winters have had a big effect in the eastern United States.

During the largest recorded event, it snowed in June in New York, and there was frost in Connecticut and Massachusetts in August (SEE: The Year Without a Summer).

1816 was also the peak of the Dalton Minimum so the effects were likely compounded.
 

VTKilarney

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1816 was also the peak of the Dalton Minimum so the effects were likely compounded.

From Wikipedia:
The cause of the lower-than-average temperatures during this period, or whether it is related to the low sunspot count, is not well understood. Recent papers have suggested that a rise in volcanism was largely responsible for the cooling trend.
 

bdfreetuna

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"Recent papers" also deny the sun has any influence on the climate. I am aware of the debate though. This blog posts some varying opinions on it. I find it impossible to believe it's a simple "one or the other" scenario when we can individually track the effects of volcanoes and unusual solar minimums on temperature in other time periods.

They both have an effect. 1816 both were occurring. It was a really cold year surrounded by other cold years. 2+2=4

https://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/
 

BenedictGomez

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They both have an effect.

Okay, well, this volcanic winter "effect" has also been noted with numerous other volcanoes & years.

I simply used that particular year as an example as it's the most impressive year we have on record given weather records don't go back very far. I could just as easily provided an example of volcanic temperature impact that occurred during a time of increased sun spots.
 

abc

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Your last sentence is my point as well, BG.
Your point?

If the temperature was lower during year of volcanic activity DESPITE increase sun spots, it would be an evident that the volcanic activity is the dominant factor.

It's not about what one "believes". There's cause and consequences, whether we want to believe it or now.

Just because there maybe multiple causes and their combined influence complex, doesn't make any of them disappear. In fact, the contrary is true. A dominant cause/factor would be quite a lot easier to identify than the interplay of several causes.
 

bdfreetuna

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Your point?

If the temperature was lower during year of volcanic activity DESPITE increase sun spots, it would be an evident that the volcanic activity is the dominant factor.

It's not about what one "believes". There's cause and consequences, whether we want to believe it or now.

So you are referencing out of context my quote: "I find it impossible to believe it's a simple "one or the other" scenario when we can individually track the effects of volcanoes and unusual solar minimums on temperature in other time periods."

Just because there maybe multiple causes and their combined influence complex, doesn't make any of them disappear. In fact, the contrary is true. A dominant cause/factor would be quite a lot easier to identify than the interplay of several causes.

I made no statement implying either cause was dominant. I made no statement implying both causes were equal. I simply stated that in the example of 1816 you cannot attribute the cold, exclusively, to one cause or the other.

Which it sounds like you actually agree with, unless you want to deny that, go ahead.

Feel free to read the posts you're trying to argue with, as a general time / effort saving measure. Or don't, it is AlpineZone after all.
 
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Looks like Mt. Agung is awakening FWIW. Lots of travel (air) disruptions. Long term weather impact.....stay tuned.
 
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