Predictions for 2018

VTKilarney · Jan 5, 2018

What are your predictions for northeast skiing in 2018? Acquisitions? Additions to NESLAP? New lifts?

I predict that the Saddleback deal will completely fall through - which is not exactly going out on a limb.

I predict that there won't be any major acquisitions this year.

And, going out on a complete limb, I predict that Powder Ridge in Connecticut won't open for the 2018-2019 season.

KustyTheKlown · Jan 5, 2018

agreed on saddleback

I've heard murmers of Stratton leaving the max pass (which would also mean tremblant probably? Intrawest)

I've heard nothing credible to this effect, but I like to hope that jay/burke join the max pass

I think vail will buy smuggs and physically connect it to stowe, in the next 3 years

VTKilarney · Jan 5, 2018

KustyTheKlown said:
I've heard nothing credible to this effect, but I like to hope that jay/burke join the max pass

Jay seems to be bursting at the seems already, so I'm not sure how tempted they would be. But when you look at the list of mountains it does make some sense. It especially makes sense for Burke.

KustyTheKlown · Jan 5, 2018

VTKilarney said:
Jay seems to be bursting at the seems already, so I'm not sure what this would give them.

aren't they still in receivership? so boyne or powdr or intra could buy them and burke pretty cheap? a northern vt destination is missing from max, and those would fill that hole very nicely

Jcb890 · Jan 5, 2018

VTKilarney said:
Jay seems to be bursting at the seems already, so I'm not sure what this would give them.

What do you mean by that comment? They aren't overloaded with crowds or operating funds. Perhaps you are talking about corruption from the owners?

VTKilarney · Jan 5, 2018

Jcb890 said:
What do you mean by that comment? They aren't overloaded with crowds or operating funds. Perhaps you are talking about corruption from the owners?

I was referring to the fact that the hotels they built at Jay seem to be pretty full in the winter.

VTKilarney · Jan 5, 2018

KustyTheKlown said:
aren't they still in receivership? so boyne or powdr or intra could buy them and burke pretty cheap? a northern vt destination is missing from max, and those would fill that hole very nicely

I've always thought that Intrawest should buy Jay. They could sell a joint pass with Tremblant and really put the squeeze on the Montreal market.

Jcb890 · Jan 5, 2018

VTKilarney said:
I was referring to the fact that the hotels they built at Jay seem to be pretty full in the winter.

I was teasing. Are they really?
The only times I've ever been to and stayed at Jay there were never crowds.

KustyTheKlown · Jan 5, 2018

VTKilarney said:
I've always thought that Intrawest should buy Jay. They could sell a joint pass with Tremblant and really put the squeeze on the Montreal market.

now we're talkin!

VTKilarney · Jan 5, 2018

Jcb890 said:
The only times I've ever been to and stayed at Jay there were never crowds.

When was the last time you stayed at Jay? It's genuinely crowded now - at least on weekends and vacation periods.

KustyTheKlown · Jan 5, 2018

that's also a function of the general lack of off-mountain lodging. they also push some really good ski and stay deals at the stateside hotel.

KustyTheKlown · Jan 5, 2018

that's also a function of the general lack of off-mountain lodging. they also push some really good ski and stay deals at the stateside hotel.

this all seems to make them a more attractive acquisition for one of those max pass companies (or vail corp, yuck). most highly regarded east coast powder destination + nhl ice facility + indoor waterpark + golf course + two new hotels, one of them quite luxe + ~100+ new condos.

it's plug and play!

deadheadskier · Jan 5, 2018

KustyTheKlown said:
I think vail will buy smuggs and physically connect it to stowe, in the next 3 years

I don't see any scenario where VT state environmental regulators allow a physical connection of the two resorts beyond the two trails that are already there.

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drjeff · Jan 5, 2018

Mount Snow adds a bunch of new snowmaking terrain and puts a bubble 4 into Sunbrook...

The Hermitage still lives

Magic gets the Green completed

Stowe installs a HSQ to replace the toll house double and help "encourage" people to park there

KSL adds a HSQ to upgrade the Snowbowl Quad at Stratton

Bromley gets a serious upgrade to their snowmaking firepower

Killington finally announces some lift replacements/upgrades for the 2019 season, as well as upgrading their pumping capacity and replacing a fair number of their ratnik guns with HKDs

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mister moose · Jan 5, 2018

Hermitage endures, but with some increased control of operations by members.

Killington breaks ground on Bear condos and lodge reno.

Vermont skier visits will be up substantially.

Powder Ridge will open for 18-19 season, however expansion plans for year round skiing will be scrapped.

It will get warmer than 10 degrees.

deadheadskier · Jan 5, 2018

2018-19

Peak will continue to treat their NH resorts as the red headed step child in regards to capital investment and operations.

No meaningful capital improvements to the ski product

Crotched and Attitash will still get off to slow starts compared to their competition. Marketshare will continue to erode from Crotched to Pat's, Ragged and Gunstock for the Nashua/Manchester/Concord metro. Attitash will continue to lose business to Bretton Woods, Cranmore, Loon, Cannon.

And I will still be a passholder on a dwindling base because they still will have the most terrain in NH, the longest season and best price to access it.

I can't speak for everyone, but I know I'd spend a couple of hundred dollars more a season if they treated Crotched and Attitash a little better

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Keelhauled · Jan 6, 2018

drjeff said:
Killington finally announces some lift replacements/upgrades for the 2019 season, as well as upgrading their pumping capacity and replacing a fair number of their ratnik guns with HKDs

South Ridge Quad is planned for next season. It was announced as part of the Bear Mountain lodge/condo plan.

raisingarizona · Jan 6, 2018

deadheadskier said:
I don't see any scenario where VT state environmental regulators allow a physical connection of the two resorts beyond the two trails that are already there.

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$ talks. It's got to happen, I mean, how could they not?

bdfreetuna · Jan 6, 2018

I predict the coming mini Ice Age combined with legal marijuana brings Brodie back to life as a destination resort.

medfordmike · Jan 6, 2018

deadheadskier said:
2018-19

Crotched and Attitash will still get off to slow starts compared to their competition. Marketshare will continue to erode from Crotched to Pat's, Ragged and Gunstock for the Nashua/Manchester/Concord metro. Attitash will continue to lose business to Bretton Woods, Cranmore, Loon, Cannon.

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I am a Max pass add on guy so I have not been to Crotched in the past two years. Are you referring to making snow early season? Just curious and I like Crotched but the Peaks Pass geography isn't a great option for me. I would have thought the new passes would have brought a lot of volume to Crotched.

Predictions for 2018

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