Rain on Friday......Grrrrrr - Page 10

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  1. #91
    Pulled the trigger tonight. There's almost no lodging left it being MLK weekend and I'm totally convinced this trend is real and will continue, leading to snow. If I'm wrong, so be it.....football and beer wont be the end of the world.

    President - Bicknell's Thrush Extermination Solutions (BTES), LLC



  2. #92
    bigbog's Avatar
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    ...As of Wednesday pm the forecast was for Friday through the weekend being a loss, however today's early morning predictions for Maine have changed with colder air coming down through the western mtns on Saturday and getting back to 20s and low 30s on Sunday through early next week = pretty fluid weather so it seems all might not be lost after all as the maps on Wednesday were a total loss of this weekend...
    Last edited by bigbog; Jan 11, 2018 at 5:02 AM.
    SteveD

  3. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
    Pulled the trigger tonight. There's almost no lodging left it being MLK weekend and I'm totally convinced this trend is real and will continue, leading to snow. If I'm wrong, so be it.....football and beer wont be the end of the world.
    Pm me if you want lodging and lift tickets cheap.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  4. #94
    kingslug's Avatar
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    Dec 2005
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    What do you make of this. Not sure if I feel like driving 5 hours but saturday might be a nice powder day, and Sunday good as well..on top of solid ice though
    https://www.mountain-forecast.com/pe...forecasts/1339
    Lets go!
    I'll drive.

  5. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by kingslug View Post
    What do you make of this. Not sure if I feel like driving 5 hours but saturday might be a nice powder day, and Sunday good as well..on top of solid ice though
    https://www.mountain-forecast.com/pe...forecasts/1339
    It's potentially garbage. The model just assumes that since the temp is less than 32 it is going to snow. But it won't be all snow, cold comes in at the surface before it does aloft so whatever falls will be liquid falling into sub freezing air. Freezing rain at first, then sleet then eventually snow at the end.

    Now, nothern areas are going to fare much better with a faster change to snow. Stowe and Jay should come out okay.
    2017/2018

  6. #96
    Even though some of the northern areas will switch to Snow on Saturday, Saturday will probably be a complete loss. The amount of rain they are talking about the ski resorts are going to have to let the mtn drain, then put back together the man made trails. There is going to be alot of water draining off the mtn. Probably alot of water beds running thru trails.

  7. #97
    Quote Originally Posted by nhskier1969 View Post
    Even though some of the northern areas will switch to Snow on Saturday, Saturday will probably be a complete loss. The amount of rain they are talking about the ski resorts are going to have to let the mtn drain, then put back together the man made trails. There is going to be alot of water draining off the mtn. Probably alot of water beds running thru trails.
    That's a big part of my concern. Even if it switches to snow, it looks like it would be too late to help much for Saturday itself. The timeframe of when the temps drop Friday night also will limit the amount of time mountains have to groom before opening on Saturday. They realistically can't groom until after the snow re-freezes (unless you want frozen solid cord). If you get decent snow throughout the day on Saturday, that will help for Sunday (plus they will have a full 16 hours to groom Saturday night). For me this weekend isn't a holiday as I'm not off Monday, so the question becomes is it worth driving 5 hours to really only have Sunday morning with possibly decent/good skiing before having to drive 5 hours home Sunday afternoon? Even with models trending a bit more favorable, I still think after the rain and quick re-freeze Friday/Friday night it won't be enough to really make Saturday an enjoyable day. I could be wrong though. Sugarbush is still right on the border of areas that could get a quicker changeover to snow (4-8"+) or areas that see more ice and less snow (1-3") from what I see on the latest models and latest NWS discussions.

  8. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
    Pulled the trigger tonight. There's almost no lodging left it being MLK weekend and I'm totally convinced this trend is real and will continue, leading to snow. If I'm wrong, so be it.....football and beer wont be the end of the world.
    Tim Kelley shares your optimism.

    How far north are you going?

  9. #99
    Quote Originally Posted by tnt1234 View Post
    Tim Kelley shares your optimism.

    How far north are you going?
    Whiteface. Early morning NAM and GFS models both corrected a bit west which isnt good, so it's back on a knife edge again. lol. It's in an area where a few miles will mean the difference between very good and very terrible skiing.

    On the bright side, the overnight Euro is now the most bullish model for all of ski country, but given it was the most negative for all of ski country just a day ago and has caved to literally all the other models, I'm not sure how much stock to put in that (if any).
    President - Bicknell's Thrush Extermination Solutions (BTES), LLC



  10. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by cdskier View Post
    That's a big part of my concern. Even if it switches to snow, it looks like it would be too late to help much for Saturday itself. The timeframe of when the temps drop Friday night also will limit the amount of time mountains have to groom before opening on Saturday. They realistically can't groom until after the snow re-freezes (unless you want frozen solid cord). If you get decent snow throughout the day on Saturday, that will help for Sunday (plus they will have a full 16 hours to groom Saturday night). For me this weekend isn't a holiday as I'm not off Monday, so the question becomes is it worth driving 5 hours to really only have Sunday morning with possibly decent/good skiing before having to drive 5 hours home Sunday afternoon? Even with models trending a bit more favorable, I still think after the rain and quick re-freeze Friday/Friday night it won't be enough to really make Saturday an enjoyable day. I could be wrong though. Sugarbush is still right on the border of areas that could get a quicker changeover to snow (4-8"+) or areas that see more ice and less snow (1-3") from what I see on the latest models and latest NWS discussions.
    I remember two years ago when we had a big rain event, most of the catch basin opened up and there was a large area running down downspout that had water running all the way down the trail. My guess, at best there will be a delayed opening Saturday. But then we are back to winding and temps near zero on Sunday.

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