Smellytele
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showing 5-11 at Jay
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Rain on Friday......Grrrrrr
- Thread starter mightaswell
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showing 5-11 at Jay
Smellytele
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stowe 3-9. Wildcat 3-5
I really like the new NOAA winter product this year. Placid or Jay look like the only hope this weekend. Middle of VT looking pretty icy.
http://www.weather.gov/btv/winter
http://www.weather.gov/btv/winter
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
Giant ranges are the new thing in weather forecasting!
"We're looking at a 1" to 15" snowfall. Back to you Jane"
fbrissette
Well-known member
Jully
Active member
Totals will hopefully hone in. Looks like the driving Friday night has gotten better too. Minimal freezing rain called for before midnight, if at all. Lots of sleet.
I'm not scared of snow (at this snowfall rate at least) or rain. Sleet a little bit, freezing rain A LOT.
fbrissette
Well-known member
Here's the range for NWS probabilistic forecast.
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
Exactly.
That's why they have silly 3" to 9" and 5" to 12" ranges! It's like anti forecast bust insurance.
As for the 18z NAM, it isn't done running yet, but it's not going to be that good for ski country. Snow totals down quite a bit from earlier today and last night.
I noticed the snow totals drop a bit in the 12z NAM compared to 6z and was wondering if that trend would continue. 18z GFS dropped totals in VT as well compared to 12z.
No matter what, the margin of error is so thin on this one though that models are going to have a tough time getting it exactly right.
Official NWS winter storm warning for the Sugarbush area is calling for 2-4" of snow and up to 1/4" of ice. The warning for Stowe and Jay is 4-7 of snow with localized 10" possible near the Canadian border. Only 1/10" of ice in that part of VT.
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
Yup. At this point real world observations of the placement of the pieces of energy is more important than most aspects of the models. Anything from just a few inches of snow (which would ski HORRIBLE, dust on crust) to 12 inches is possible for far northern areas. Baseline's probably something like 5" to 7". I imagine 6" on top of a frozen solid base would ski okay.
slatham
Well-known member
Yup time for watching it come together (or not)......
machski
Well-known member
Assuming that six inches doesn't all blow away. With the quick temp change, likely to be a nce wind gradient with it.
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kingslug
Well-known member
https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Mount-Mansfield/forecasts/1339
this would be good...hate to drive 5 hours for much less though. Although I have been there on solid ice, and then it started dumping and quickly became rather awesome.
this would be good...hate to drive 5 hours for much less though. Although I have been there on solid ice, and then it started dumping and quickly became rather awesome.
drjeff
Well-known member
I'm curious as to how many people bemoaning that it won't be great this weekend, and are choosing not to see what mother nature brings and not ski this weekend will be complaining come seasons end that they skied only X# of days as opposed to their desired preseason goal of Y# of days???
It's the East... Conditions often go from really good/great to not so great/ugly in the proverbial blink of an eye. In the end a "bad" day on the slopes is still better than NO day on the slopes in my book
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It's the East... Conditions often go from really good/great to not so great/ugly in the proverbial blink of an eye. In the end a "bad" day on the slopes is still better than NO day on the slopes in my book
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180
Well-known member
Well said Jeff.....
It's the East... Conditions often go from really good/great to not so great/ugly in the proverbial blink of an eye. In the end a "bad" day on the slopes is still better than NO day on the slopes in my book
It's the East... Conditions often go from really good/great to not so great/ugly in the proverbial blink of an eye. In the end a "bad" day on the slopes is still better than NO day on the slopes in my book
Zermatt
Active member
I'll say it again, that forecast is garbage. That model does not know the difference between snow, sleet and freezing rain. It assumes that if the temp is less than 32 then it is snowing. That will not be the case tonight. There will be an extended period of freezing rain and sleet even at Stowe.
Granted, there will be snow north of Sugarbush, possibly enough to mitigate the effects of rain today.
Smellytele
Well-known member
Matters what the cost is for said bad day. If you have a season pass and a place to stay and eat then it doesn't matter. If you have to drive 5 hours pay to stay and eat. Then buy a $100 ticket then ski on ice or in the rain No day on the slope may be better.
Even with a pass and a place to stay, if you still have to drive 5 hours a "bad" day is not necessarily better than "No" day. There have been days in the past that I went out and was one and done and said "this was horrible, why did I bother". I wouldn't classify those days as better than "No" day. Sure I'd like to hit X number of days in a season...but skiing a run or two on crappy conditions just to count it as a day isn't really what is important to me.
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