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  1. #251
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
    Never gonna' happen, even if voters vote "YES" on that proposal, State of California is run top to bottom by Democrats who would not allow that to pass due to presidential elections. Right now Democrats get 55 e.c. votes for California to 0 for Republicans because they swamp the Republican north, but if you carved out the 3 states their advantage would probably be something like 39 to 16. That's a netted loss of 32 e.c. votes for Democrats, so they'll never let that become law.
    Just looking at the presidential elections over the past century, it appears that the Republicans have done pretty well in the elections in spite of California's Democratic leanings. I have no issues with the democrats in California.


  2. #252
    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    Just looking at the presidential elections over the past century, it appears that the Republicans have done pretty well in the elections in spite of California's Democratic leanings.
    You cant look at state politics over a century, way too long a timeframe.

    The last time a Republican POTUS candidate won in California was 30 years ago (Bush), and the math was much more favorable to Republicans then. It would be almost impossible for a Republican presidential candidate to win California today, it would basically take a negative black swan event against the Democratic candidate.
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  3. #253
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
    You cant look at state politics over a century, way too long a timeframe.

    The last time a Republican POTUS candidate won in California was 30 years ago (Bush), and the math was much more favorable to Republicans then. It would be almost impossible for a Republican presidential candidate to win California today, it would basically take a negative black swan event against the Democratic candidate.
    My point was that the country has elected republican Presidents even with California voting Democrat. So I do not see the point of splitting up the state just so the republicans can get more electoral votes.

  4. #254
    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    My point was that the country has elected republican Presidents even with California voting Democrat. So I do not see the point of splitting up the state just so the republicans can get more electoral votes.
    It could swing a close election though like 2000.

  5. #255
    It is unfortunate that a state's future is at all tied to its implications for elections. If CA thinks that it is best for the state to split it, then it should split. Election trends are likely to look way different 30 years from now, so in the long run it really doesn't matter.

  6. #256
    Quote Originally Posted by Jully View Post
    It is unfortunate that a state's future is at all tied to its implications for elections. If CA thinks that it is best for the state to split it, then it should split. Election trends are likely to look way different 30 years from now, so in the long run it really doesn't matter.
    But all politicians care about is the "here and now" and the "what directly affects me" though.
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  7. #257
    Quote Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
    But all politicians care about is the "here and now" and the "what directly affects me" though.
    Exactly

  8. #258
    States like California and Texas probably should be split up since they are crazy big in terms of population and economic output. And maybe small states like Vermont and New Hampshire should be merged.

    I agree that politicians have a very short term outlook of winning the next election, and don't think about the long term, so fat chance any state lines are going to be redrawn.

    You can see the short term outlook with the rampant gerrymandering (sadly invented in Boston) that they use to guarantee certain seats in congress will be one party or the other. But when you're just competing with your own party during an election for a seat, then naturally the more extreme person for that party will tend to win. So the short term gain of gerrymandering has the long term effect of promoting really extreme views in each party and the polarization of everything.

    I couldn't help but laugh at the media reaction after Trump's Singapore summit. Fox news was touting it as a massive success and the end of the nuclear threat from North Korea, while MSNBC was saying OMG he promised to stop the super important war games with South Korea and got nothing in return. The truth is somewhere in the middle that it was just a positive first step, and things could go either way from here.

  9. #259
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    I almost didn't even vote this last election because I didn't like any of the options. It amazes me that the parties can not come up with new blood that has new and interesting ideas.

  10. #260
    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    I almost didn't even vote this last election because I didn't like any of the options. It amazes me that the parties can not come up with new blood that has new and interesting ideas.
    The candidates that advance and do well are propped up by lobbying interests. Until campaign finance laws change, I see it always being much of the same from both sides. Though Trump is probably the best modern example of an outsider breaking that mold.

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