The Official 3/2 Storm Discussion Thread

thetrailboss · Mar 1, 2007

The latest for Vermont (Killington, Okemo, Ascutney):

/O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0003.070302T0000Z- 070303T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W. 0003.070302T0500Z-070303T0200Z/ WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN RUTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF... RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD... WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...EAST WALLINGFORD... KILLINGTON 513 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AT TIMES ON FRIDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. A TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 9 TO 16 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

thetrailboss · Mar 1, 2007

And for Northern VT (Burke, Jay, SB, Stowe):

/O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0003.070302T0300Z- 070303T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W. 0003.070302T0500Z-070303T0200Z/ ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA- WASHINGTON-ORANGE- EASTERN FRANKLIN- EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT... ISLAND POND...JOHNSON... STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD... RANDOLPH... ENOSBURG FALLS... RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL... RIPTON 513 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...INCLUDING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ... INCLUDING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AT TIMES FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. A TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 16 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY EVENING.

ctenidae · Mar 1, 2007

For central NH (Lincoln):

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LION...
DUE TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FORECASTING A BROAD AREA OF ABUNDANT QPF DUE TO LARGE SCALE AND INTENSE OVERRUNNING SITUATION...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER THAN PRIOR RUNS AND WITH QPF TOTALS TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE THIS MEANS A LOT OF SNOW. IT APPEARS ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE COAST AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS TO CHANGE OVER THE SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND/OR RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE DUMPING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAY A MJR ROLE IN KEEPING THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AS THE COASTAL FRONT SHOULD STAY JUST OFF THE COAST EXCEPT ALONG THE MIDCOAST AREA WHERE IT MAY BRIEFLY MAKE ITS WAY A FEW MILES INLAND. IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE SINCE THE MID LEVEL LOW PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND MAINE WITH THE SURFACE LOW STAYING JUST OFF THE MAINE COAST. SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE ABOUT 15:1 WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS IT SHOULD BE ABOUT 8 OR 10:1.

wintersyndrome · Mar 1, 2007

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ... INCLUDING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AT TIMES FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. A TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 16 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY EVENING.

SWEET

hammer · Mar 1, 2007

ctenidae said:
For central NH (Lincoln):

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LION...
DUE TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FORECASTING A BROAD AREA OF ABUNDANT QPF DUE TO LARGE SCALE AND INTENSE OVERRUNNING SITUATION...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER THAN PRIOR RUNS AND WITH QPF TOTALS TO BE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE THIS MEANS A LOT OF SNOW. IT APPEARS ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE COAST AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS TO CHANGE OVER THE SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND/OR RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE DUMPING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAY A MJR ROLE IN KEEPING THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AS THE COASTAL FRONT SHOULD STAY JUST OFF THE COAST EXCEPT ALONG THE MIDCOAST AREA WHERE IT MAY BRIEFLY MAKE ITS WAY A FEW MILES INLAND. IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE SINCE THE MID LEVEL LOW PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND MAINE WITH THE SURFACE LOW STAYING JUST OFF THE MAINE COAST. SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE ABOUT 15:1 WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS IT SHOULD BE ABOUT 8 OR 10:1.

Lincoln is central NH?

My main concern is that areas to the south will really take a hit...while the north areas will be reveling in pow this weekend the southern areas will be skiing on good old freeze/thaw boilerplate...:-x

I know, I know...I should go north but that's not an option. For the rest of you, enjoy and take lots of pictures...

thetrailboss · Mar 1, 2007

hammer said:
Lincoln is central NH?

My main concern is that areas to the south will really take a hit...while the north areas will be reveling in pow this weekend the southern areas will be skiing on good old freeze/thaw boilerplate...:-x

I know, I know...I should go north but that's not an option. For the rest of you, enjoy and take lots of pictures...

Well, we'll have to wait and see. Things do change for the better.

And this kind of weather is nothing new to the Pats Peaks and Crotcheds of the world. They have outstanding grooming and snowmaking in order to deal with this kind of scenario. The report does say some snow, so it is going to get better.

Will the on-piste options be good? Absolutely. Will off-piste? Probably not. But this is a reasonable expectation given our weather patterns as of late.

bvibert · Mar 1, 2007

I just wanted to thank those of you that highlight the important bits in those weather blurbs. I have trouble reading with all the CAPS and weather jargon. I always skip over them unless something is in bold or otherwise highlighted. :beer:

:snow:

SKIQUATTRO · Mar 1, 2007

have a good time Syndrome..perfect timing for that guide to take you BC.....take some pics....I'll be at Bromley with the fam skiing god only knows what, but nonetheless, its skiing and its awesome....

hammer · Mar 1, 2007

thetrailboss said:
Well, we'll have to wait and see. Things do change for the better.

And this kind of weather is nothing new to the Pats Peaks and Crotcheds of the world. They have outstanding grooming and snowmaking in order to deal with this kind of scenario. The report does say some snow, so it is going to get better.

Will the on-piste options be good? Absolutely. Will off-piste? Probably not. But this is a reasonable expectation given our weather patterns as of late.

Thanks for the encouragement...I'd have to agree that these places know how to deal with variable precip and still provide good conditions on the groomers.

Good thing is that the higher sun angle in March tends to soften things up more, so even if it's firm in the morning it will be better in the afternoon.

ctenidae · Mar 1, 2007

hammer said:
Lincoln is central NH?

...

Close enough. it's the one location that covers the most ski areas reasonably well, so I call it central.

AdironRider · Mar 1, 2007

Whiteface is looking pretty good as well.

/O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0003.070302T0000Z- 070303T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W. 0003.070302T0500Z-070303T0200Z/ SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON- WESTERN ESSEX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE... TUPPER LAKE... DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID 513 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY MORNING AND MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AT TIMES FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING. A TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 14 INCHES BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

Greg · Mar 1, 2007

Calling for more sleet now. Yuck:

NWS BVT said:
Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1051 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...A MAJOR STORM WILL HIT VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION...

.A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA LATE THIS
MORNING WILL TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL APPROACH
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT...BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AFTER DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...CHANGING SNOW TO INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SLEET FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING... AND BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AND BE
OVER LONG ISLAND EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL THEN BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT. MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS
THIS SECONDARY LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST.

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-020015-
/O.CON.KBTV.WS.W.0003.070302T0500Z-070303T0200Z/
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...
STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
1051 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT...INCLUDING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED
BY 8 AM FRIDAY. BY 10 AM...SNOW WILL CHANGE TO INTERMITTENT
PERIODS OF SLEET...AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...WITH AN AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET EXPECTED...EXPECT UP TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE
ENDING FRIDAY EVENING. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT.

PERSONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT...SHOULD TAKE THE
NECESSARY ACTION AND PREPARE FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER STORM. IF
TRAVELING TOMORROW...BE PREPARED FOR POOR TRACTION IN
SNOW...SLEET...AND POSSIBLE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS.
WITH DEEP SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...ENSURE THAT ANY OUTDOOR
FURNACE VENTS REMAIN CLEAR OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION.
ALSO...WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY
TO CLEAR SNOW FROM ELEVATED SURFACES THAT MAY HAVE STRUCTURAL
DIFFICULTY SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET.
USE PARTICULAR CARE IF CLEARING ROOFS OF EXISTING SNOW. ICE
MAY HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THE SNOW PACK...CAUSING A HAZARD WHEN BEING
REMOVED.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION.

NWS BVT said:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

HAVE MADE SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO 2ND AND 3RD PERIOD SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND PRECIP TYPE...BUT ALL WARNINGS WL STAY IN PLACE ATTM.

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
CRNT SFC ANALYSIS PLACES 987MB LOW PRES NEAR KANSAS CITY AT 15Z WITH
STRONG LLVL/MID LVL WAA ACRS THE MS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS ATTM.
MEANWHILE...COLD HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CANADA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING OUR FA WITH VERY SHALLOW AND COLD
AIRMASS ON WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS. CRNT FCST OF MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY
WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S LOOKS VERY GOOD AND NO UPDATED NEEDED.

HOWEVER...TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FCST IS VERY CHALLENGING WITH EXACT
TRACK OF PRIMARY SFC LOW AND HOW QUICKLY SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS ON FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST. THIS WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
SNOWFALL AND AMOUNT OF MID LVL WARMING TO TAKE PLACE ACRS OUR CWA.
MODELS CONT TO HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING PRIMARY LOW PRES FROM
NEAR KMCI THIS MORNING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
FRIDAY...WITH SECONDARY COASTAL LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER NYC BY 18Z
FRIDAY.

THE NAM IS MUCH COOLER ACRS OUR CWA AND WOULD A MAINLY SNOW
EVENT ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...MEANWHILE...GFS IS 2 TO 3 DEGREES
WARMER ESPECIALLY BTWN 850-700MB ON FRIDAY AND SUPPORTS A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW...SLEET AND POSSIBLE SOME FREEZING RAIN. LOOKING AT 12Z UA
DATA UPSTREAM ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION...GFS
INITIALIZED MUCH BETTER WITH LOW/MID LVL THERMAL PROFILE AND THE
VERY STRONG WAA ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LVL JET. THIS COMBINED WITH
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE OF GFS HANDLING THERMAL PROFILES IN THESE TYPES
OF SETUPS BETTER...WL TREND TOWARD THE GFS MODEL FOR THIS UPDATE.
USING THE OLD 1000-500MB 540DAM LINE FOR CHANGEOVER IN PRECIP WOULD
SHOW...SNOW...MIXING WITH SLEET ACRS SOUTHERN DACK AND VT ZNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY...INTO CENTRAL CPV BY 14Z...AND INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT BY
16Z FRIDAY. FEEL 50 TO 70 KNOT SOUTHERLY JET BTWN 850-700MB WL PUSH
DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO ABOVE 0C AND SUPPORT MORE MIXED
PRECIP...LIKE THE GFS SUPPORTS. IN ADDITION...LLVL THERMAL PROFILE
OF 1000MB TEMPS BELOW 0C WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ZNS...AND WL
MENTION IN UPDATED FCST WITH SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IN SHOWING A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW LIFTING ACRS OUR CWA TONIGHT FROM SW TO NE ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LVL WAA. THIS WL PRODUCE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACRS
OUR CWA...BEFORE THE CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP. WL MENTION TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACRS THE NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ONCE PRECIP MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO SLEET...SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE DONE. STILL PLENTY OF QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH
MORE MOISTURE GETS WRAPPED AROUND INTO OUR FA ASSOCIATED WITH
SECONDARY DEVELOPED. FEEL WITH NO CLOSED 700MB/500MB OR 850MB
CIRCULATION...AMOUNT OF WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL WL BE LIMITED AND
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TRRN LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY NITE. LLVL
CAA WRAPS BACK AROUND SECONDARY COASTAL LOW PRES TO CHANGE MIXED
PRECIP BACK TO ALL SNOW BY 21Z FRIDAY.

wintersyndrome · Mar 1, 2007

SKIQUATTRO said:
have a good time Syndrome..perfect timing for that guide to take you BC.....take some pics....I'll be at Bromley with the fam skiing god only knows what, but nonetheless, its skiing and its awesome....

Enjoy yours too...Magic is not to far from Bromely if you get bored at Bromley. And the snow, hey you never know the Low might track further south or east and then it will be all snow for everyone...happy days...

I'll do what i can about taking pictures (will have to use my younger brothers camera) as I wrecked mine jumpin the little cliffs in Skree Field (BSB Vail) and still havent bought a new one.

This season has sucked for me so far with moving, work, school and orchestrating a career change, so this will be my first full weekend out (did 2 day trips so far)
and it looks like I may get lucky

:snow:

SKIQUATTRO · Mar 1, 2007

any by "get lucky" you are talking the snowstorm of course!!!!!!

wintersyndrome · Mar 1, 2007

since I'm co-habitating now-a-days...when i say "get lucky" it can only mean snow, or getting the lift at the leeward mark ;-)

SKIQUATTRO · Mar 1, 2007

good point...ahhhh the Leeward mark....!!! should be a fun drive up Friday night nonetheless.....

wintersyndrome · Mar 1, 2007

Hopefull we all get lucky and no one north of I-90 gets the wintry mix...safe drivin...ws

kingslug · Mar 1, 2007

I just hope all that great catskill snow doesn't turn to cement!

SKIQUATTRO · Mar 1, 2007

hey, any turns in any conditions beats not turning at all.....

KingM · Mar 1, 2007

From the MRG weather blog about 45 minutes ago:

Storm Update - New data shows a colder storm

I keep looking at the data as it comes in and with each successive run of the models, cross sections for northern and central Vermont appear colder. The last run of the high resolution model did not show an above freezing layer at MRG which would mean all precipitation Friday would be snow. What may end up happening is that instead of a significant amount of sleet Friday afternoon, a dry slot will move across the region which would mean a cloudy but mostly dry Friday afternoon after the heavy snow in the morning. In either case, we are getting our 6-10 by mid morning Friday and it will make for a great day.

Could we do 2-3 feet over the next 5 days - absolutely yes !!!
The better part of this situation continues to be the set-up in the aftermath of Friday. We have Friday evening where another round of snow will likely bring a few inches to the mountain. On Saturday however the dyanmics arrive and the terrain snow machine will kick into high gear. There will be undulations in the intensity of the snow and it will be hard to predict specific amounts each day. One period where the snow might become intense is Saturday afternoon and evening. Most importantly though is that the snow should continue in sporadic but at times intense fashion in the period beginning Saturday and ending Tuesday. When you the Saturday-Tuesday amounts with Friday's amounts 2-3 feet is a very reasonable guess. Be aware however that valley locations will see snow mainly on Friday and the limited sunshine on Saturday, Sunday and Monday could send temperatures in the Champlain Valley to near 40. It will be a lot different though in the high country and a lot better for skiing.

KingM: I've got a guy coming this afternoon to clean the snow off my roofs. Not a moment too soon.

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