The Official 4/15 - 4/17 Storm Discussion Thread

Biggest storm of the year on the way... tomorrow is only a warmup. The storm is expected to last 2-3 days and could bring huge snow amounts to the northlands and even quite a bit once again for SNE.

Nor'Easter Superstorm late this week?

Look at this:

A Beast in the East?
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Yes, the question causing a lot of buzz here in Acculand is, "Will there be a monster of a storm along the Atlantic Seaboard by the end of this weekend?" The storm of concern is not the one churning through the middle of the country now, even though it is quite a storm in its own right. Heavy snow fell this morning in northern Illinois, including Chicago, and as the storm heads eastward there will be heavy snow, especially in the higher elevations of central New York into central and northern New England tonight and tomorrow.
However, the storm we are buzzing about it is still on the West coast. About the only real sign of its potential today will be strong winds in the mountains and high desserts of California. Those winds indicate a very strong disturbance in the jet stream. As this storm moves eastward there will be heavy snow in the Rockies tonight and tomorrow, then thunderstorms will become severe later tomorrow and tomorrow night through the southern Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley. We may see quite an outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes. There will be some snow on its northern edge as it crosses the Midwest, but not as much as with today's storm.
The really interesting scenario is what happens when the storm hits the East Coast. Last night's runs of the GFS, the European and the Canadian were pretty much in agreement. The details of course varied, but each model had an explosively developing storm off the Middle Atlantic coast that slows down as it strengthens. You old timers may remember the nor'easter of March 1962. That storm sat and battered the coast for several days. There was coastal flooding and beach erosion, and it wound up rearranging the New Jersey coastline and destroying many of the boardwalks at the shore. There also was considerable snow and rain. Of course a lot has to happen for this storm to rival that historic monster, and if we didn't have the computer models, we probably wouldn't be dreaming that such a thing could happen. But, we do have those models, and that kind of a storm is a possibility in the Sunday through Tuesday time period of next week. So, stay tuned!
Updated: 4/11/2007 8:43 AM

Ha, Ha we both posted on the same subject

Hopefully Northwestern Maine will be the place to be for bigtime snows late this weekend.

Yea. I'm ready with the Boards or the Boats. A bunch of rain would mean INSANE river levels and some tiny streams that never run could run big. A bunch of snow means I continue to shred POW until my legs fall off. either way, I love big weather!

JD said:

Yea. I'm ready with the Boards or the Boats. A bunch of rain would mean INSANE river levels and some tiny streams that never run could run big. A bunch of snow means I continue to shred POW until my legs fall off. either way, I love big weather!

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Dude out of all respect - keep your rain wishes to yourself!!!

If getting in your boat is your perogative, head down to West Virginia and don't jinx the snow for us frozen surfers.

Dude.

Gary on 'CAX said as of now it looks like it'll be warm enough for it to be rain, but the higher elevations should see some snow. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

I saw a recent model and I swear it looked like the valentines day monster. I couldn't believe it. I did the math and it was like 20-25 inches of snow at higher elevations. I doubt this is really possible BUT this winter is nuts so who knows.

Bring it.

NWS in Gray is already issuing special weather statements for this one. Undecided on precipitation type, Mountains might get slammed. Going to be a monster regardless. Here is part of the discussion.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALL MODELS INDICATE A MAJOR COASTAL STORM TO
DEVELOP OFF OR ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE
CONCENSUS OF USING THE GEM AND EURO MODELS FOR GUIDANCE. GFS/WRF SEEM TO
BE HAVING A PROBLEM TAKING SYSTEM EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES AND
TRY TO PHASE IT WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM ALLOWING IT TO GET
ABSORBED TOO FAR WEST AND NORTH. ASSUMING THESE STAY SEPARATE ONE WOULD
EXPECT A MORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERLY TRACK FROM WHAT THE GFS/WRF SUGGESTS.
IN ANY EVENT...WITH A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF ENERGY TO HIT THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY ITS ALL BUT CERTAIN THAT MAJOR
BOMBOGENISIS WILL BE GENERATED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN ONE WAY
OR ANOTHER. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENTRAINED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
WATER ON ITS TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND WITH
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF WATER (PTYPE
UNCERTAIN) TO BE DUMPED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA SEEMS FAIR TO
ASSUME. ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL ALSO BE WHETHER THE STORM STALLS
SOMEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. AND YET ANOTHER PROBLEM IS
GOING TO BE DETERMINING WHAT FORM THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN...SNOW OR RAIN. CONSIDERING A COLDER BIAS THAN THE GFS/WRF
SUGGEST EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A SNOW TO RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW SITUATION FURTHER SOUTH
AND ALONG THE COAST.

The other factor will be the wind, with talks of hurricane force winds, winds holds will be prevalent, and if its the heavy, dense snow that it seems likely to be, some serious amounts of powerlines/trees could very well come down too.

Tuesday may end up proving to be the day when the winds finally subside.

drjeff said:

The other factor will be the wind, with talks of hurricane force winds, winds holds will be prevalent, and if its the heavy, dense snow that it seems likely to be, some serious amounts of powerlines/trees could very well come down too.

Tuesday may end up proving to be the day when the winds finally subside.

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Heading up to VT after work today. Was considering taking Monday off, but now I'm thinking that this may be a waste. Monday may not be the day to be on the slopes.

Gary on 'CAX is changing his mind....looks like we'll be on the cold side here in Vermont.

andyzee said:

Heading up to VT after work today. Was considering taking Monday off, but now I'm thinking that this may be a waste. Monday may not be the day to be on the slopes.

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The folks running in the Boston Marathon should have a blast in Monday's predicted weather. I bet some of those wispy Kenyan's might very well be blown into another county!

drjeff said:

The folks running in the Boston Marathon should have a blast in Monday's predicted weather. I bet some of those wispy Kenyan's might very well be blown into another county!

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If they get a good tail wind, records may drop :lol:

if the weather holds as predicted, beacon street should look like a war zone. come up over heartbreak hill and the full force of those winds are going to cream the elite and recreational runner - running in rain and wind for a couple of hours and then stronger winds and fatigue from mile 21 on - can you spell hypothermia! had it happen to me years ago - had to stop at mile 23 b/c I couldn't stop shaking - bad.

i really hope for snow in mtns!

noaa is all snow for kmart, no totals yet

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/Ma...lat=43.182917&smap=1&mp=0&map.x=132&map.y=101

drjeff said:

The folks running in the Boston Marathon should have a blast in Monday's predicted weather. I bet some of those wispy Kenyan's might very well be blown into another county!

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hey, that was funny! boarderline Imus-like offensive statement. but then again, what marathon runner isn't "wispy"? thank you for the good laugh.

The summit forecast at www.sugarloaftoday.com predicts 20" + for Sugarloaf.

Powder would be nice, but honestly for the most part the mountain has plenty of snow.

Meteorologist Russ Murley from the Sunday River site is saying that the potential is there for 24-36 inches sunday and monday. Incredible. What a time to be injured. :sad: