Late October Snowmaking?

snowman · Oct 24, 2007

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:
but mid 20s overnight temps aren't cold enough for snowmaking according to Snowman..lol

Exactly. I wouldn't waste 1 KW on temps of 25F at this time of year. It would take you 15 + days of 25F nighttime lows to make the same amount of snow that you can make in 1 night with a low of 15. Energy actually costs money now. Nobody is going to dick around with marginal or worse temps on unfrozen ground unless they've got the worlds largest ego (and even then the results are going to bruise it) and absolutely no sense of fiscal and environmental responsibility.

BushMogulMaster · Oct 24, 2007

I know it's Accuweather, but this long range starting Monday the 29th looks pretty promising for snowmaking at the 'Bush.

Accuweather said:
Monday, Oct 29
Low: 28 °F
High: 47 °F

Tuesday, Oct 30
Low: 21 °F
High: 48 °F

Wednesday, Oct 31
Low: 20 °F
High: 37 °F

Thursday, Nov 1
Snow
Low: 21 °F
High: 37 °F

Friday, Nov 2
Low: 18 °F
High: 38 °F

Saturday, Nov 3
Low: 18 °F
High: 36 °F

Sunday, Nov 4
More Details
Low: 18 °F
High: 35 °F

Monday, Nov 5
Snow
Low: 16 °F
High: 34 °F

Tuesday, Nov 6
Snow
High 35 °F
Low: 20 °F

BushMogulMaster · Oct 24, 2007

snowman said:
Exactly. I wouldn't waste 1 KW on temps of 25F at this time of year. It would take you 15 + days of 25F nighttime lows to make the same amount of snow that you can make in 1 night with a low of 15. Energy actually costs money now. Nobody is going to dick around with marginal or worse temps on unfrozen ground unless they've got the worlds largest ego (and even then the results are going to bruise it) and absolutely no sense of fiscal and environmental responsibility.

Yep, snowman's right on this one. And for those of you who need numbers to prove it, consider this:

Let's look at two guns... a low-e a/w gun, and a standard a/w gun.

Ratnik Skygiant II+II (most productive low-e gun on the market):

At 20-26 °F & 600psi, you get 36gpm output.
At 12-18 °F & 600psi, you get 88gpm.
Drop another 10°, and you get 136gpm without any compressed air.

Ratnik Snowgiant II+II (high production standard a/w gun):

There's not a specific temp table like the one above, but the following is pretty accurate:

Marginal temps (the 20-26 °F range) & 600psi, you get 69gpm with air compressors absolutely cranking.
In more ideal temps (the teens range) & 600psi, you get around 150gpm.
In optimum temps (single digits) & 600psi, you get up to 250gpm without any compressed air.

Of course, manufacturer stats don't necessarily line up with real-world performance. But you get the general idea. 10° can make a HUGE difference in production and efficiency of snowmaking. Unless you have a set deadline that you MUST meet, making early season snow with mid-20s temps & New England humidity onto unfrozen ground is like blowing 100 dollar bills out your snowguns.

snowman · Oct 24, 2007

BushMogulMaster said:
Let's look at two guns... a low-e a/w gun, and a standard a/w gun.

Ratnik Skygiant II+II (most productive low-e gun on the market):

At 20-26 °F & 600psi, you get 36gpm output.
At 12-18 °F & 600psi, you get 88gpm.
Drop another 10°, and you get 136gpm without any compressed air.

What that chart also doesn't tell you is that at the 26F you're getting total slop out your gun, pretty much all of which is going to vanish the next day if it's 45F out and the ground is still unfrozen, leaving you with a muddy mess to work in the next night that's even harder on production that unfrozen ground. You guys look like you might be good to go for 12 hour shifts Nov 1 or 2 eh? You could maybe blow right thru the day the third or 4th on if it's sunny out ...

BushMogulMaster · Oct 24, 2007

snowman said:
What that chart also doesn't tell you is that at the 26F you're getting total slop out your gun, pretty much all of which is going to vanish the next day if it's 45F out and the ground is still unfrozen, leaving you with a muddy mess to work in the next night that's even harder on production that unfrozen ground. You guys look like you might be good to go for 12 hour shifts Nov 1 or 2 eh? You could maybe blow right thru the day the third or 4th on if it's sunny out ...

Exactly. Even if the mess that came out of that gun stuck around long enough to get the mountain open, you would not want to ski on it!

Yeah... temps are looking good for the 'Bush. Give the ground a couple of those 20° nights to freeze up a little, and then start blowing some snow. If even 2 or 3 of those nights are medium to low humidity, some real good early snow could be made.

WJenness · Oct 24, 2007

Zand said:
<snip> ORH recorded a CDD today...</snip>

I'm new around here... CDD?

-w

bobbutts · Oct 24, 2007

snowman said:
Exactly. I wouldn't waste 1 KW on temps of 25F at this time of year. It would take you 15 + days of 25F nighttime lows to make the same amount of snow that you can make in 1 night with a low of 15. Energy actually costs money now. Nobody is going to dick around with marginal or worse temps on unfrozen ground unless they've got the worlds largest ego (and even then the results are going to bruise it) and absolutely no sense of fiscal and environmental responsibility.

Everything (bold) is an exaggeration with you.

Greg · Oct 24, 2007

snowman said:
Check your geography Greg. I'm talking about the River now, and the Loaf before...blah blah blah...Saying I said one thing about one place, when actually I was talking about someplace completely different.

They are a whopping 50 linear miles apart. So I guess you must feel that if Sunday River fires up, Sugarloaf will just sit idly by?

Vortex · Oct 24, 2007

Loon has statred they will start Nov 1.
http://www.loonmtn.com/winter/

They tend to make a lot and let if set almost snow farm if they can. A few times(not the last two years) they had enough snow to open but waited to open.

Greg · Oct 24, 2007

snowman said:
I was just looking at the West Dover forecast for the first time. There's no snowmaking go date in that forecast either, right thru Nov 6.

It's an in-town forecast. Temps will likely be lower (barring an inversion) up at elevation.

Greg · Oct 24, 2007

ski_resort_observer said:
I was pretty impressed with all those new fan snowguns Attitash now has lining up the lower trails. If they are so inclined opening a trail top to bottom should be alot easier for them than at alot of other resorts.

Check out this video. Attitash has top to bottom fan guns on Illusion over at Bear Peak. If this forecast hold true, we may very well see Attitash emerge as the first with a T2B run. Maybe as soon as next weekend.

snowman · Oct 24, 2007

Greg said:
They are a whopping 50 linear miles apart. So I guess you must feel that if Sunday River fires up, Sugarloaf will just sit idly by?

According to the Accuweather forecasts, yes. Like I already said, it's bizarre there's such a difference when one would think the loaf would have the advantage. The loaf has no choice but to watch, they simply don't have the temps if the forecast is correct.

snowman · Oct 24, 2007

bobbutts said:
Everything (bold) is an exaggeration with you.

No.

snowman · Oct 24, 2007

snowman said:
According to the Accuweather forecasts, yes. Like I already said, it's bizarre there's such a difference when one would think the loaf would have the advantage. The loaf has no choice but to watch, they simply don't have the temps if the forecast is correct.

I guess I should say the River HAD the temps, now they both do. The magic of 15 day forecasts. The River has the advantage now of a couple of premium cold nights, while at the loaf they have the daytime temps to allow them to blow right thru a few days if they want. By blowing thru, they won't make very much extra snow during the day, but by keeping the system running they can take better advantage of the night time cold temps. They might both start as early as Oct 30th now too, as the temps got a lot better for that day, although the ground won't have a really good freeze into it. Normally, it would be best to wait a day or 2 longer, however, instead of this being an extended cold snap, it's looking more like a 5-7 day window now. It's a coin flip now as to if you start on the 30th or wait until the 1st. If the 15 day ends up looking really warm from the 7th out, they might not even bother at all. My money is on SR blowing the heck out of one trail as early as possible now to kick things off. They might not bother with the loaf at all if the long term is bad on the 30th.

Greg · Oct 24, 2007

snowman said:
According to the Accuweather forecasts, yes. Like I already said, it's bizarre there's such a difference when one would think the loaf would have the advantage. The loaf has no choice but to watch, they simply don't have the temps if the forecast is correct.

Well, I'd like to remind you on a few things:

Accuweather, historically, has not been the most accurate forecast.
15 Day forecasts of any kind are sort of just speculation anyway. Unless of course it's a good forecast like the ones we have here which is why I started this thread.
The Accuweather forecast I started this post with is for Kingfield, not Sugarloaf itself. It can be safely assumed that temps will be lower at elevation given there is no inversion.
If 8 consecutive nights of lows in the teens to low 20's (in Kingfield) are not enough to blow enough snow to get open, I don't know what is.

snowman said:
I guess I should say the River HAD the temps, now they both do. The magic of 15 day forecasts. The River has the advantage now of a couple of premium cold nights, while at the loaf they have the daytime temps to allow them to blow right thru a few days if they want. By blowing thru, they won't make very much extra snow during the day, but by keeping the system running they can take better advantage of the night time cold temps. They might both start as early as Oct 30th now too, as the temps got a lot better for that day, although the ground won't have a really good freeze into it. Normally, it would be best to wait a day or 2 longer, however, instead of this being an extended cold snap, it's looking more like a 5-7 day window now. It's a coin flip now as to if you start on the 30th or wait until the 1st. If the 15 day ends up looking really warm from the 7th out, they might not even bother at all. My money is on SR blowing the heck out of one trail as early as possible now to kick things off. They might not bother with the loaf at all if the long term is bad on the 30th.

One key thing you're missing is that the new ownership wants to make some news, especially to validate the Maine Pass. My money would be on Sugarloaf for an opening maybe next Friday or Saturday if the current forecast holds. For the weekend anyway.

snowman · Oct 24, 2007

Greg said:
Well, I'd like to remind you on a few things:

Accuweather, historically, has not been the most accurate forecast.

15 Day forecasts of any kind are sort of just speculation anyway. Unless of course it's a good forecast like the ones we have here which is why I started this thread.

The Accuweather forecast I started this post with is for Kingfield, not Sugarloaf itself. It can be safely assumed that temps will be lower at elevation given there is no inversion.

If 8 consecutive nights of lows in the teens to low 20's (in Kingfield) are not enough to blow enough snow to get open, I don't know what is.

One key thing you're missing is that the new ownership wants to make some news, especially to validate the Maine Pass. My money would be on Sugarloaf for an opening maybe next Friday or Saturday if the current forecast holds. For the weekend anyway.

Well, it was you who held Accuweather up like the holy grail over the weather.com forecast. Do they not have a mountain specific forecast for the Loaf like weather.com? There is no way in hell the Loaf is opening next weekend unless they do something short off Timberline or cover Boardwalk. That is no where near enough time to cover something off the Superquad. It will take them the entire "window" to cover something off the Superquad, and even then it will be thin and not last if it's going to be warm after the window. The river is where they can do something usefull. They can cover one or 2 trails deep to last. If the 15 day is really good on the 30th though, they'll both go to work.

Edd · Oct 24, 2007

Greg said:
Check out this video. Attitash has top to bottom fan guns on Illusion over at Bear Peak. If this forecast hold true, we may very well see Attitash emerge as the first with a T2B run. Maybe as soon as next weekend.

That would be a stunner. I've been so unimpressed with their snowmaking compared with other resorts, last year I said I was done with them. It would figure now that I don't have a pass there the place would come alive.

Greg · Oct 24, 2007

snowman said:
Well, it was you who held Accuweather up like the holy grail over the weather.com forecast. Do they not have a mountain specific forecast for the Loaf like weather.com? There is no way in hell the Loaf is opening next weekend unless they do something short off Timberline or cover Boardwalk. That is no where near enough time to cover something off the Superquad. It will take them the entire "window" to cover something off the Superquad, and even then it will be thin and not last if it's going to be warm after the window. The river is where they can do something usefull. They can cover one or 2 trails deep to last. If the 15 day is really good on the 30th though, they'll both go to work.

Wow. :blink: Here we go again. :roll: Where do you come up with this stuff? And you wonder why everybody questions your credibility? First of all, I never "held Accuweather up like the holy grail over the weather.com forecast." I challenge you to find a post where I did that. What I said was I don't put a lot of credence in any forecast beyond 3-5 days. I only linked to the Accuweather forecasts in this thread to give us something exciting to discuss, and I prefaced the fact that this is all just speculation. What bothers me about your posts is you make them with this annoying absolute tone as if everything you post is fact.

Secondly, the Loaf can certainly open the terrain off the Superquad given the current forecast. You, yourself said they may have a few days to blow around the clock. If they can get started Sunday night and have 3 days to blow around the clock midweek, a Friday or Saturday opening is totally possible.

snowman · Oct 24, 2007

Greg said:
Wow. :blink: Here we go again. :roll: Where do you come up with this stuff? And you wonder why everybody questions your credibility? First of all, I never "held Accuweather up like the holy grail over the weather.com forecast." I challenge you to find a post where I did that. What I said was I don't put a lot of credence in any forecast beyond 3-5 days. I only linked to the Accuweather forecasts in this thread to give us something exciting to discuss, and I prefaced the fact that this is all just speculation. What bothers me about your posts is you make them with this annoying absolute tone as if everything you post is fact.

Secondly, the Loaf can certainly open the terrain off the Superquad given the current forecast. You, yourself said they may have a few days to blow around the clock. If they can get started Sunday night and have 3 days to blow around the clock midweek, a Friday or Saturday opening is totally possible.

Weather.com is providing elevation forecasts now? Ha ha ha. Newsflash, snowman: a weather.com forecast "for Sugarloaf" IS Kingfield.

The point of them blowing around the clock is simply to keep the system primed so that start up doesn't take as long the next night. During the day they would have to retreat to 5-10 old style guns near the peak to blow a very small amount of snow. It's not really for daytime production. They don't have daytime temps to make meaningfull amounts of snow. I think i've heard it takes 60 good hours to get something off the Superquad covered. That's about all they're going to get looking at this forecast, and if it's going to get warm thereafter, they could lose it before anyone even gets to ski it because it would also be thin.

Vortex · Oct 24, 2007

Way too many things come into play that I don't have the facts to make a good guess.

Suglarloaf might be a better choice cause crowds would be lower on limited terrain. If temps are equal Sr would open faster and be a better place to make money.

The problem is at least with me is I don't know what factors are involved with making a descion.

Both look like the temps would allow snow to be made maybe even enough for early openings.

My guess is it would happen mid week not on a weekend unless is was like veterans day weekend when more lodging packages could be sold. I would not be surpised to see the North east pass explained on the same day one place opens to increase marketing value.

I beilieve we will get an early opening, party casue they seem to care about the die hards, but more for marketing value( look what our pass got you... and those who have not bought one might be more inclinded to do so.)

The temps are not the only deciding factor.

If it was an oct opening like this weekend I would have said the Loaf just cause of the evevation temp.

My bet as it was from the beginning is SR will open 1st. Its a race with money spent being taken into account.

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