The Official 2/26 - 2/27 Storm Discussion Thread

any speculation?

Signifigant model divergance... some have an Apps Runner, others have a storm off the M-A coast. GFS has been most consistent bringing a storm through NNE and a warm front followed by a sharp cold front for SNE. No confidence whatsoever on timing, amount, or type yet.

Also looking at a chance for another (and should be colder) storm for next Friday after a nice little arctic blast in the middle of next following storm 1.

shh.... I already blocked Tuesday off on my office calendar..... (seriously...)
I'll let the pent up demand whack at today's flakes this weekend. then I'm going after the goods before this talk of ncp transforms into reality......

Kinda funny. Whenever it starts snowing out (like today) I start humming Christmas tunes..... "oh the weather outside is frightful...."

billski said:

Kinda funny. Whenever it starts snowing out (like today) I start humming Christmas tunes..... "oh the weather outside is frightful...."

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Dude that is too funny!!:lol: :lol:

TheBEast said:

Dude that is too funny!!:lol: :lol:

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It looks like rain for Vermont..hero snow..

Right now, models are coming into agreement on the placement of some of the
upper level features...which leads to some confidence in the overall
synoptic output. Now, this storm is only at 3-4 days lead time but the
models are really just beginning to get a handle on all the ingredients for
this storm...as all of this upper level energy enters a more data-rich
environment across western N.America.

Surface Low looks to track from the Ohio Valley, ENE south of Albany to just
near Boston. Given the seasonal trend to go further northwest, I am
expecting this to track somewhere across BTV's county warning
area....meaning we'll have to deal with sleet, at least in the
southern/central areas.

Overall, precipitation amounts on the GFS, EURO, and Canadian all point
towards a moderate storm; QPF amounts are between .35-.75 so I'm leaning
towards a 4-8" snowfall on Tuesday during the day.

Will keep a few updates coming but this is our next winter storm.

-Scott

The BTV HWO from this morning...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRESENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH
SLEET AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. WHILE IT IS TOO SOON TO PREDICT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LOW TRACK AT
THIS TIME RANGE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MODERATE SNOW STORM
THAT WOULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NWS FORECASTS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

Sounds good for the north country. We've got the base, but we need a good storm to get those woods and natural trails back up to snuff.

12z NAM and 12z GFS are on-board with a long duration snow event...taken at face value they would yield a 6-12" storm for the ski resorts from Killington on northward in Vermont...and across most of New Hampshire's 'major' resorts like Loon, Bretton Woods, Waterville, Wildcat, Cannon, etc. Same goes for the River and Loaf in Maine.

However, I am leery of a northwest trend which seems to be a seasonal disorder this winter thanks to La Nina. Certainly am not ruling out mixed precipitation far north until we get closer to the event, but looking good at this juncture.

Please, I will be Sugarloaf starting Monday!:grin:

TheBEast said:

Dude that is too funny!!:lol: :lol:

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Yeah, I actually have some video clips of a hike on the falls in snow. My friend and I just start singing that and walking in a winter wonderland. And I hate christmas music.

The track of this storm will shift favorably and all of the Northeast will be blessed. At least that's what I'm hoping for. Positive vibes...

Greg said:

The track of this storm will shift favorably and all of the Northeast will be blessed. At least that's what I'm hoping for. Positive vibes...

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Greg, how much snow did you get out of this last one?

powderfreak said:

Greg, how much snow did you get out of this last one?

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Prolly 7" with some wet crapola on top. The local ski hill reports 7-9" and it stayed all snow. A bunch of us skied during the height of the storm which was intermittent, but hey, gotta take what you get in CT. We were lovin' it!

My local NWS forecast is calling for snow on monday night turning to rain by noon on tuesday and then to freezing rain tuesday night, yummy, yummy. I saw an early guesstimate of 3-6" of snow before the change to rain for my area.

I figure it will mean a delayed school opening on tuesday, but hopefully not a closing as Warren has already had 5 snow days this year and school (foolishly) only alot's three.

It's looking pretty promising for Southern VT or NH on Tues-Wed, I am hopeful at least at the higher el's. It seems NWS is prognosticating snow to continue through the spine while the flatlands get the niar. Certainly north of Kmart looks like all snow.

Soooo.. the big question. I've a choice of Tuesday or Wednesday for midweek skiing. I had tentatively blocked Tuesday, but am starting to think Wed. might be the better choice. I'd really like to get onto the naturals and woods, but I'm probably gonna stay in Southern VT this time. (I head north again on Friday, so save some for me!) If the storm comes in late it might not hit in time for me to take advantage of. Of course there's the usual driving-in-the-snow roadway issues on Tuesday. I think I'm talking myself into Wednesday.

Thoughts? Tuesday or Wednesday?

billski said:

It's looking pretty promising for Southern VT or NH on Tues-Wed, I am hopeful at least at the higher el's. It seems NWS is prognosticating snow to continue through the spine while the flatlands get the niar. Certainly north of Kmart looks like all snow.

Soooo.. the big question. I've a choice of Tuesday or Wednesday for midweek skiing. I had tentatively blocked Tuesday, but am starting to think Wed. might be the better choice. I'd really like to get onto the naturals and woods, but I'm probably gonna stay in Southern VT this time. (I head north again on Friday, so save some for me!) If the storm comes in late it might not hit in time for me to take advantage of. Of course there's the usual driving-in-the-snow roadway issues on Tuesday. I think I'm talking myself into Wednesday.

Thoughts? Tuesday or Wednesday?

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Wednesday is definitely going to be the true powder day. Tuesday will be storm skiing in the afternoon (also quite nice) but Tuesday morning will be the same old stuff we've been skiing on. Light snow will still be falling through most of Wednesday morning, but heaviest is Tuesday evening into the night, IMO.

I'd say Killington to Sugarbush/MRG area will make out very well with over a foot if it stays all snow. Actually, the number I've got in my head right now for much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and the Adirondacks is 7-14" based on a basic 12:1 ratio. Synoptic set-up argues for .5-1.0 liquid equivalent. Will need to look further at the mixing potential, temperatures in the snow growth region, and how quickly the coastal development gets going.

Gotta go to work till this evening, however, so will try to post a full update later tonight.

I'm liking Wednesday a lot. Thanks Scott.

....Now, I've got four meetings to reschedule...

Suddenly it appears that this may not even be too bad down here. Right now, the forecast says snow Tuesday morning, rain/snow in the afternoon, and snow ending in the evening for me. Not much accumulation, but it's not the big rainstorm I was fearing.

What about wind? We're planning to go to Bolton on Wednesday, but the forecast is currently showing a lot of wind to follow this storm, which worries me a bit.

powderfreak said:

Wednesday is definitely going to be the true powder day. Tuesday will be storm skiing in the afternoon (also quite nice) but Tuesday morning will be the same old stuff we've been skiing on. Light snow will still be falling through most of Wednesday morning, but heaviest is Tuesday evening into the night, IMO.

I'd say Killington to Sugarbush/MRG area will make out very well with over a foot if it stays all snow. Actually, the number I've got in my head right now for much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and the Adirondacks is 7-14" based on a basic 12:1 ratio. Synoptic set-up argues for .5-1.0 liquid equivalent. Will need to look further at the mixing potential, temperatures in the snow growth region, and how quickly the coastal development gets going.

Gotta go to work till this evening, however, so will try to post a full update later tonight.

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Any thoughts on Magic?