billski
Active member
unscientific me thinks it will be at the low end - perhaps 4 to 6". But again, too early to tell. I'm crossing my fingers it has enough elevation to avoid the changeover. See what Scotty thinks....
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The Official 2/26 - 2/27 Storm Discussion Thread
- Thread starter JD
- Start date
unscientific me thinks it will be at the low end - perhaps 4 to 6". But again, too early to tell. I'm crossing my fingers it has enough elevation to avoid the changeover. See what Scotty thinks....
billski
Active member
really? I thought the winds would be no more than 15 kts on Wed. afternoon
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...e=all&AheadDay.x=12&AheadDay.y=15&AheadDay=48
billski
Active member
The rain will stay south on tues.:roll:
What do I know, but if you read Scott's message carefully and other forecasts, there is no mention of NCP in the MRV.
ckofer
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We've got 2 days at Sugarloaf (Tues, Weds) - this could be sweet....
The rain will stay south on tues.:roll:
What do I know, but if you read Scott's message carefully and other forecasts, there is no mention of NCP in the MRV.
were the rolling of the eyes really necessary?
And, like I said, I have no idea how to read that. What's NCP?
SnowRider
New member
NCP - Non Crystalized Precipitation
Im at Killington next weekend and there looks like snow almost every day...oh please stay that way.
Im at Killington next weekend and there looks like snow almost every day...oh please stay that way.
twinplanx
Active member
Thanx ...I've been to ashamed to ask:blink:
billski
Active member
yeah, they are. I am unqualified to make such statements....
I can wish, hope and pray, but make posits, no.:roll:
billski
Active member
Midweek (2/26-27) Stoke from MRV - SHEEEEEUUUUUUUTTEEEE!
(BLESS, you'll want to read this.)
Now, here's one skiing weatherman who's stoking for the storm . I've pulled out the most inflammatory comments from Josh Fox at MRG. I just cleared off my Wednesday Calendar. No friends Wednesday I suppose....
Start Quote:
Here we go !!! Big mid-week dump is now in the making !!!!
...Once again, after a somewhat challenging week for MRG, we do a 180 and prepare for an epic week as the pattern amplifies once again only this time the ampflication will have us rock'n in the free world (credit - Neil Young) rather than flooded at the basebox
...The details including the possibility of 3 powder days
...I think it is fair to say that a 3-powder day week is epic and is also quite achievable this week particularly if we can get some accumulating snow early enough in the day Tuesday. As for accumulations this is the preliminary guess.
By Tuesday morning: Around an inch
By Tuesday evening: 2- 4 inches
By Wednesday first tracks: 8-14 inches
By Wednesday evening: 5-10 inches
By Thursday first tracks: 2-4 inches
This makes for a storm total of 18-30 inches.
More snow for the weekend ? You know it !!"
END QUOTE
Click on the link above for the source at madriverglen.com
(BLESS, you'll want to read this.)
Now, here's one skiing weatherman who's stoking for the storm . I've pulled out the most inflammatory comments from Josh Fox at MRG. I just cleared off my Wednesday Calendar. No friends Wednesday I suppose....
Start Quote:
Here we go !!! Big mid-week dump is now in the making !!!!
...Once again, after a somewhat challenging week for MRG, we do a 180 and prepare for an epic week as the pattern amplifies once again only this time the ampflication will have us rock'n in the free world (credit - Neil Young) rather than flooded at the basebox
...The details including the possibility of 3 powder days
...I think it is fair to say that a 3-powder day week is epic and is also quite achievable this week particularly if we can get some accumulating snow early enough in the day Tuesday. As for accumulations this is the preliminary guess.
By Tuesday morning: Around an inch
By Tuesday evening: 2- 4 inches
By Wednesday first tracks: 8-14 inches
By Wednesday evening: 5-10 inches
By Thursday first tracks: 2-4 inches
This makes for a storm total of 18-30 inches.
More snow for the weekend ? You know it !!"
END QUOTE
Click on the link above for the source at madriverglen.com
If that makes it's way to Maine, I see a night session at Shawnee Peak on Wednesday in my future if they're still doing the mid-week night skiing now that the holidays are through.
billski
Active member
From what I can see it's tracking YOUR WAY. Clear you evening plans now!
powderfreak
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Sorry, this is mainly for the Adirondacks and Vermont.
The more I look at this, more impressed I am but yet fearful at the
same time. I am confident now in more than a moderate (4-8") snowfall
and that we will all be realizing over 8" by 6pm Wednesday. The
northern Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains could see some very
significant totals thanks to surface low track, a well developed
deformation zone on Wednesday, plus favorable upslope enhancement.
Low pressure is going to track from the Ohio Valley to northeast PA
and then across central/southern New England, intensifying as it
reaches the coastline between Boston and Portland. I've examined the
latest upper air model data and am quite impressed with the upper
level support this storm will have. A developing duel-jet structure
will maximize divergence aloft over the interior northeast. Thus, I
am expecting a fairly heavy precipitation event with liquid amounts
ranging from .75"-1.5".
Precipitation types will be difficult to pin down, but I think north
of I-89 its all snow. South of I-89 will become elevation dependent
for a time with all snow above 1,000ft-1,500ft in the Killington to
Sugarbush corridor. Some rain may mix in on Tuesday evening and the
first part of Tuesday night in the low elevations from BTV on south.
I was perusing the MOS data (model output statistics) which tweaks
current model output based on past events with similar environmental
conditions. It does warm BTV and RUT up enough for plain rain at
33-34F late on Tuesday before the cold air rushes in...arguing for
some elevation dependence during the first half of this storm system.
I've seen this happen in the Champlain Valley several times already
this season as warm air moves up the valley from the south.
The bottom line at this juncture...
This will be a significant storm system with snow beginning after 12pm
on Tuesday, becoming heavy at times into Tuesday evening. Snow will
mix with rain at lower elevations on Tuesday evening and early Tuesday
night...especially during times of lighter precipitation.
Precipitation will taper off for a time as the low passes us at some
point on Tuesday night. Then, everyone goes back to all snow by early
Wednesday morning...with snow, heavy at times, through noon on
Wednesday. Light/moderate snow will continue in the northern
Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains for the rest of the day.
Elsewhere, after noon on Wednesday the snow will be more intermittent.
Total accums at the ski areas (higher elevations), 7-15" in central
Vermont (Killington to Sugarbush), 10-18" in northern Vermont (N of
I89), and 10-18" in the Adirondacks look possible. Here in
Burlington, looking like 6-12".
For skiing/riding conditions this storm looks to be about perfect with
wetter/denser snow during the first half, then light 'n fluffy with
high ratios during the second half. This will hide the crusty and
unpredictable stuff nicely. However, wind hold is a possibility on
Wednesday (mainly afternoon) but doesn't look like a given.
Driving on Wednesday morning could be real fun with dropping
temperatures, increasing wind, and possibly increasing snowfall rates
even though precipitation rates slightly wane (due to much better
dendrite growth temps).
It won't be a true blockbuster, but its another storm system to add to
the very healthy snowfall totals we've seen across the region this
season. Burlington's already a foot above the seasonal average with
another month and a half of accumulating potential.
-Scott
The more I look at this, more impressed I am but yet fearful at the
same time. I am confident now in more than a moderate (4-8") snowfall
and that we will all be realizing over 8" by 6pm Wednesday. The
northern Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains could see some very
significant totals thanks to surface low track, a well developed
deformation zone on Wednesday, plus favorable upslope enhancement.
Low pressure is going to track from the Ohio Valley to northeast PA
and then across central/southern New England, intensifying as it
reaches the coastline between Boston and Portland. I've examined the
latest upper air model data and am quite impressed with the upper
level support this storm will have. A developing duel-jet structure
will maximize divergence aloft over the interior northeast. Thus, I
am expecting a fairly heavy precipitation event with liquid amounts
ranging from .75"-1.5".
Precipitation types will be difficult to pin down, but I think north
of I-89 its all snow. South of I-89 will become elevation dependent
for a time with all snow above 1,000ft-1,500ft in the Killington to
Sugarbush corridor. Some rain may mix in on Tuesday evening and the
first part of Tuesday night in the low elevations from BTV on south.
I was perusing the MOS data (model output statistics) which tweaks
current model output based on past events with similar environmental
conditions. It does warm BTV and RUT up enough for plain rain at
33-34F late on Tuesday before the cold air rushes in...arguing for
some elevation dependence during the first half of this storm system.
I've seen this happen in the Champlain Valley several times already
this season as warm air moves up the valley from the south.
The bottom line at this juncture...
This will be a significant storm system with snow beginning after 12pm
on Tuesday, becoming heavy at times into Tuesday evening. Snow will
mix with rain at lower elevations on Tuesday evening and early Tuesday
night...especially during times of lighter precipitation.
Precipitation will taper off for a time as the low passes us at some
point on Tuesday night. Then, everyone goes back to all snow by early
Wednesday morning...with snow, heavy at times, through noon on
Wednesday. Light/moderate snow will continue in the northern
Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains for the rest of the day.
Elsewhere, after noon on Wednesday the snow will be more intermittent.
Total accums at the ski areas (higher elevations), 7-15" in central
Vermont (Killington to Sugarbush), 10-18" in northern Vermont (N of
I89), and 10-18" in the Adirondacks look possible. Here in
Burlington, looking like 6-12".
For skiing/riding conditions this storm looks to be about perfect with
wetter/denser snow during the first half, then light 'n fluffy with
high ratios during the second half. This will hide the crusty and
unpredictable stuff nicely. However, wind hold is a possibility on
Wednesday (mainly afternoon) but doesn't look like a given.
Driving on Wednesday morning could be real fun with dropping
temperatures, increasing wind, and possibly increasing snowfall rates
even though precipitation rates slightly wane (due to much better
dendrite growth temps).
It won't be a true blockbuster, but its another storm system to add to
the very healthy snowfall totals we've seen across the region this
season. Burlington's already a foot above the seasonal average with
another month and a half of accumulating potential.
-Scott
(BLESS, you'll want to read this.)
Now, here's one skiing weatherman who's stoking for the storm . I've pulled out the most inflammatory comments from Josh Fox at MRG. I just cleared off my Wednesday Calendar. No friends Wednesday I suppose....
Start Quote:
Here we go !!! Big mid-week dump is now in the making !!!!
...Once again, after a somewhat challenging week for MRG, we do a 180 and prepare for an epic week as the pattern amplifies once again only this time the ampflication will have us rock'n in the free world (credit - Neil Young) rather than flooded at the basebox
...The details including the possibility of 3 powder days
...I think it is fair to say that a 3-powder day week is epic and is also quite achievable this week particularly if we can get some accumulating snow early enough in the day Tuesday. As for accumulations this is the preliminary guess.
By Tuesday morning: Around an inch
By Tuesday evening: 2- 4 inches
By Wednesday first tracks: 8-14 inches
By Wednesday evening: 5-10 inches
By Thursday first tracks: 2-4 inches
This makes for a storm total of 18-30 inches.
More snow for the weekend ? You know it !!"
END QUOTE
Click on the link above for the source at madriverglen.com
ummmm, yeah.
billski
Active member
don't get too excited now
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