The Official 2/26 - 2/27 Storm Discussion Thread

billski said:

don't get too excited now

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danny p said:

powderfreak, your reports/forecasts are very much appreciated. thanks again!! :beer:

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.......SO EXPECT A
RAIN/SNOW EVENT...WITH TERRAIN BEING A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR AS TO
P-TYPE. RAIN/SNOW MIX LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN LIKELY
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY. A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE
CATSKILLS TO THE BERKSHIRES.

AFTER THE LOW GOES BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...COLDER AIR RETURNS
QUICKLY WITH ALL SNOW EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS FROM MIDNIGHT ON.
ALTHOUGH TIMING/LOCATION IS DIFFERENT...MODELS INDICATE
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECSAT AREA AND
THE CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BAND WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW LINGERS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE...BUT
THE FORCING WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THEN WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER STORM
WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EVEN IF THE SNOW DOES MIX WITH RAIN IN MANY AREAS
FOR A TIME. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

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reefer said:

Ditto Scott! Very informative....................

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Greg said:

The forecast has even improved for SoVT:

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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EST MONDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. WARM AIR
ADVECTION SNOWS BEGIN THE EVENT ON TUESDAY...WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1
TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING THE STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING INTO THE
AREA. FRONTOGENESIS BECOMES MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME DRY ADIABATIC. BUFKIT PROFILES
SHOWING FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF SNOW GROWTH AND OMEGA TO SUPPORT
ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SNOW
GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH DRY SLOT TO THE SOUTH...
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATING SNOWS GOING. GIVEN MANY FAVORABLE
PARAMETERS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND LONGER DURATION OF THIS
EVENT...FEEL A WINTER STORM WATCH IS NECESSARY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. WITH LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH AND WARM LAYER REMAINING JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA...NOT THINKING A LOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET FOR RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES...BUT PROBABILITY MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
WILL RUN THE WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY AND MENTION POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW.

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powderfreak said:

12z NAM and Parallel NAM from NCEP are big, big hits for the north country.
Upslope parameters with wrap around are maximized on Wednesday
afternoon...should see some 1"-2"/hr snowfall for a time on Tuesday night
before a 6 hour lull Wednesday AM. Then another round of heavy snow,
especially mtns but also maybe BTV area with CPV convergence. The CPV
convergence up against the western shores, plus upslope flow of >25kts at
H85, plus low level cold air advection to increase ratios...we really do not
want this low pressure track to change. If this doesn't change today, I'll
be forecasting 12-24" for the Green Mtn spine, including Sugarbush, Mad
River Glen, Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs, and Jay.

-Scott

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Greg said:

What are your thoughts for SoVT, Magic specifically? If you had to pick a day, which would it be, Wed or Thurs? Thanks for your time.

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powderfreak said:

A little bit of a tougher call...but at elevation I'm thinking they stay all snow.

This storm will be different from recent ones in that it'll be fairly black and white without a lot of gray. By that I mean its either rain or snow...I see sleet and freezing rain playing a fairly minor role, if any. That's not to say there won't be pockets of sleet/freezing rain along the transition zone, but it'll be elevation dependent in the transition zone. Temperatures will likely start just above freezing everywhere...but the north will cool to 29-32F as snow develops. In southern Vermont, the Berkshires, Albany area, Catskills and southern tier of NY...I am envisioning a solution that has a rain/snow mix into Tuesday night below 1,500ft south of I90 and 1,000ft north of I90. It wouldn't surprise me if I saw a few rain drops at my house here in Burlington as we are so marginal in the bottom 1K feet. But it'll be snowing from the Blanford Rest Area on the Mass Pike (near that "highest elevation before South Dakota" sign) northward up the Berkshires and Green Mountain spine...just don't get dismayed if its raining at low elevations even north of I-90 tomorrow night for a time.

So the bottom line, Greg...I think Southern Vermont has a 90% chance of all snow above 1,000ft. Thus, the ski areas will be fine. I'd go Wednesday because the bulk will fall there on Tuesday night with some additional accums through early afternoon Wednesday. But that'll be the fresh day. They won't get the backside accums areas further north will get, but would still think 8-14" is a good range for Magic...with the upper numbers allowing for a further shift south in storm track.

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SKIQUATTRO said:

again, why do i live on this island??

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