“VAIN-LY” FALLING - From a investment newsletter I get.

From the Gartman Letter.

“VAIN-LY” FALLING: We look for evidence
in unusual places to tell us of the strength or weakness
of the economies around the world. One such place of
interest is Vail, Colorado and its ski slopes, for despite
what are apparently very good conditions there for
skiing this year, the slopes are virtually empty.
According to an interesting article in yesterday’s
Journal, the total number of visitors to Vail Resorts Inc.
this year is down 5.8% from a year ago; sales of lifttickets
are down 7.5% and bookings at Vail’s
expensive hotels during the peak season are down
14.8% as of December 31st. At the competitor, Aspen
Skiing, visits were down 8% year on year.
The “high end” is having a hard go of it these days, if
we read the results from Vail Resorts and Aspen Skiing
correctly. Managements at both companies are trying
to spin the news as best they can, but try as they might
the spin is the same: things are slow and things are
slowing; the high end is suffering as is the middle
market, and it may be months yet before there are
even nascent signs of a turnaround.

.....

...$.01,
The lack of worker-skill retooling and job opportunities certainly isn't any of ski-resort management's making....but, to me, the absence of these corporate management's consideration for what the non-urban, lower-middle working-class populations are going through by not re-focusing their pricing schemas..is sheer arrogance and stupidity. I don't care what their books look like by the end of this season, imho...they've lost the "friendliness"-factor...no matter how many luxuries are offered.

Visits are down in much of Colorado, particuarly at "destination" resorts such as Aspen. Places closer to Denver, such as Loveland, Copper, etc. are actually doing quite well. I'd give you numbers to back it up, but....I spoke with a rep at Colorado Ski Country recently who told me their report - as far as Christmas week visits are concerned - would be done last week, but there was no guarantee they'd release the numbers. Safe to say based on some of the gloom they're not going to release the numbers.

Makes sense..my upcoming trip to Jackson Hole is $150 less than last year for the exact same package because I got 2 nights of free lodging..apparently bookings are down 30% in J-Hole..I'm die-hard so I'm always going to go on lots of steezy ski trips..but most people are cutting back on big ski trips..my cutbacks are on going to bars and restaurants..

I don't know if it is the economy or just the presence of a snow cover here in Jersey but the local hills have seemed a lot busier than the last few seasons. If it's not the presence of snow to remind people of skiing then it could be more people doing day trips instead of destination resorts.

Someone sent me these links today:

Aspen Occupancy Rates Tumble

Vail Resorts Bookings, Visits Down From Previous Year

Here's the whole WSJ story. Interesting that ski school is down 20%. I hear more anecdotal evidence that people are sticking around closer to home, shorter trips. I suspect that ski school, stores, bars and restaurants are down this year while they "bare bones" it to just the skiing. Like me
It will be interesting to see how the east coast weighs in. I suspect flat or better.



By WILLIAM SPAIN

The snow fell early and often at most of Vail Resorts Inc.'s properties, but the avalanche of the bad economic news still took its toll. The company on Friday said that skier visits and forward bookings have declined for the season to date.
Vail Resorts said that from the start of the season through Jan. 6, total skier visits to its five properties were off 5.8% compared with the same period a year ago, while lift-ticket revenue fell 7.5%. Bookings as of Dec. 31 are down 14.8% on a room-night basis.
While the company's shares tumbled sharply on the early morning news, they partially rebounded and some analysts said it appeared that bookings were holding up better than expected.
"The current economic environment has certainly impacted the beginning of the 2008-09 ski season," said Chief Executive Rob Katz, although he added that skier visits were up during the two-week holiday period.
The drop in lift-ticket revenue was higher than that of visits largely due to more traffic from season-pass holders, according to Mr. Katz. Ancillary revenues -- that is, from dining, retail and rentals -- were off about the same as lift tickets. The ski school was off roughly 20%.
"We believe the greater decline in ski-school revenue was due to lower guest spending on certain higher-priced items during their trip, a trend that was matched in lower check averages at certain of our fine-dine restaurants," the executive said.
Looking ahead, Mr. Katz noted that booking trends have improved from the 23.3% decline reported early last month -- an indication that "many of our guests are booking closer in, which we saw evidence of in the recently concluded current-year holiday period."
Shares of Vail dropped to $26.97, down $1.63, or 5.7%, in Friday trading on the New York Stock Exchange. But they had traded down as much as 16%.
Rochdale Research analyst Hayley B. Wolff said the company's results were marginally better than what she had anticipated.
She added that the company is aggressively marketing to drive visitation. "It does have an advantage given its huge season-pass base and database," she said.
In December, Vail Resorts dropped multi-day lift-ticket prices down to last ski season's prices in an effort to appeal to cash-strapped potential visitors after the company's first-quarter loss widened and was greater than analysts' expectations.
Separately, Aspen Skiing Co. said skier visits were down 8% during the two weeks that covered Christmas and New Year's Day, compared with last year. Company officials had projected that visits would fall between 5% and 15% over the holidays.
A spokesmen for Aspen Skiing said that the week of Dec. 21-27 was noticeably down compared with last year but Dec. 28 through Jan. 3 was as strong, if not stronger, than last year.
—Aja Carmichael contributed to this article