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MAJOR STORM TO POUND EAST COAST--
A weak disturbance aloft coupled with moisture off Lake Champlain has resulted in another few inches of snow across N/C Vermont and the Adirondacks. Killington has received close to 14" the past 3 days, Stowe and Sugarbush 6-10" and Jay Peak at least 5". Hence, after all, the cold blast that is gripping the eastern U.S. did indeed bring the snow we were hoping for even in the face of the Big Dipper and moon starting gravely down on many ski resorts a couple nights ago.
This promises to be a nice weekend for sking, and just in time, given the warm pattern and frequent rains we have seen of late. I think this overall weather pattern will remain---some snow, warming up with rain, then some snow again. This freeze-thawing will continue for at least another 10 days, so things could certainly be worse. A major storm will affect the east later next week and could bring some heavy rains to New England before it gets cold again, but in the short term, we have another thing to be watching.
Computer models backed off yesterday on bringing the big eastern storm to Vermont--which yesterday suggested maybe a foot or more from Northern New Jersey to Mass and much of New Hampshire this weekend. I am going with one computer model of Europe , which takes a major coastal storm a few hundred miles east of Cape Code by later Saturday/Sunday.
Initially, places like Snowshoe West Virgina, Great Gorge, New Jersey and parts of the Poconos could wind up with a foot or more snow from this system by later tomorrow night. Depending on how far south cold air penetrates New England will determine whether primary New England ski resorts get snows this weekend. I think the odds are about 80% that the Berkshires, and especially Waterville Valley, NH to Southern Maine could see anywhere from 8-18" from this storm. If I just go with the Europe map, which does better, in what we call Baratropic situations, we will begin hearing other forecasters upping their snow amounts in Vermont and NH as time goes on and other models begin to agree. From southern Vermont from Magic Mountain, Stratton and possibly Okemo could get 4-8" from this storm. Further north, the odds are probably 60% for 4-7" at Killington; 2-5" at Sugarbush and Stowe, 2-4"; 1-3" for Jay Peak, and 4-7" at Burke Mountain Saturday into Sunday. There is a 30% chance now that snow amounts in these areas could be heavier than this. Stay tuned the next two days for updates. Again, the best chance for heavy snows will be over southern New England with this system. Even with the main system going east of Vermont, with Lake Champlain not frozen yet, northern winds Saturday night into Sunday should result in a few inches of snow across most areas of C/N Vermont. Look what has been happening the last few days with Lake Effect.
Next week will feature a big warm up with temps above normal through mid week and a possible major storm approaching about Wednesday night and Thursday. Based on the weather the pattern has been the last few weeks, I expect moderate rains with this system and then turning colder later Thursday or Friday with some lake effect--oragrphic snows. The models are showing a major rain event for New England by next Thursday..but things can change somewhat and I want to hold off getting too pessimistic about that right now.
Snowfall that began tapering off across parts of Colorado this last week, after tons during November, should begin to pick up again early next week as temps in the 40's are replaced with colder temps and 4-8" of snow many areas by Monday/Tuesday With the passage of a cold front Sunday, Tahoe, Kirkwood and Utah could see at least 3-6" more snow. I think that looking at the new maps now, Alta/Snowbird has a 60% chance of seeing 6-12" by Sunday/Monday going off the Great Salt Lake. The big winners out west will be Mt. Baker to Mt. Hood that could see 1-2 feet of snow the next few days and Sun Valley's conditions will stay ideal with at least 6". Mammoth Mountain to the Tahoe region may see the freezing levels rise to around 7,500 feet this weekend and some rain may fall at the lowest elevations with several inches of snow behind the system later Sunday. Much colder weather will blast Colorado through Utah and much of the west by Monday-Tuesday with temps falling back into the teens and 20's around 7500 feet and colder than that alot.
Today's map at 15,000 feet shows an "x" off the S. NJ coast..where the storm will be and another "X" diving into Update New York and the Great Lakes. If the X (storm) can phase and dive to the south fast enough, this will turn the steering winds more out of the south and bring this storm closer to the New England coast and increase snow amounts in C/N New England.
The map also shows "X"'s off the Oregon/Washingto Coast and British Columbia which will nail these areas over the weekend with 1-3 feet of snow.
(maps available to subscribers from his web site www.bestskiweather.com Also many more updates and free ski passes)
A weak disturbance aloft coupled with moisture off Lake Champlain has resulted in another few inches of snow across N/C Vermont and the Adirondacks. Killington has received close to 14" the past 3 days, Stowe and Sugarbush 6-10" and Jay Peak at least 5". Hence, after all, the cold blast that is gripping the eastern U.S. did indeed bring the snow we were hoping for even in the face of the Big Dipper and moon starting gravely down on many ski resorts a couple nights ago.
This promises to be a nice weekend for sking, and just in time, given the warm pattern and frequent rains we have seen of late. I think this overall weather pattern will remain---some snow, warming up with rain, then some snow again. This freeze-thawing will continue for at least another 10 days, so things could certainly be worse. A major storm will affect the east later next week and could bring some heavy rains to New England before it gets cold again, but in the short term, we have another thing to be watching.
Computer models backed off yesterday on bringing the big eastern storm to Vermont--which yesterday suggested maybe a foot or more from Northern New Jersey to Mass and much of New Hampshire this weekend. I am going with one computer model of Europe , which takes a major coastal storm a few hundred miles east of Cape Code by later Saturday/Sunday.
Initially, places like Snowshoe West Virgina, Great Gorge, New Jersey and parts of the Poconos could wind up with a foot or more snow from this system by later tomorrow night. Depending on how far south cold air penetrates New England will determine whether primary New England ski resorts get snows this weekend. I think the odds are about 80% that the Berkshires, and especially Waterville Valley, NH to Southern Maine could see anywhere from 8-18" from this storm. If I just go with the Europe map, which does better, in what we call Baratropic situations, we will begin hearing other forecasters upping their snow amounts in Vermont and NH as time goes on and other models begin to agree. From southern Vermont from Magic Mountain, Stratton and possibly Okemo could get 4-8" from this storm. Further north, the odds are probably 60% for 4-7" at Killington; 2-5" at Sugarbush and Stowe, 2-4"; 1-3" for Jay Peak, and 4-7" at Burke Mountain Saturday into Sunday. There is a 30% chance now that snow amounts in these areas could be heavier than this. Stay tuned the next two days for updates. Again, the best chance for heavy snows will be over southern New England with this system. Even with the main system going east of Vermont, with Lake Champlain not frozen yet, northern winds Saturday night into Sunday should result in a few inches of snow across most areas of C/N Vermont. Look what has been happening the last few days with Lake Effect.
Next week will feature a big warm up with temps above normal through mid week and a possible major storm approaching about Wednesday night and Thursday. Based on the weather the pattern has been the last few weeks, I expect moderate rains with this system and then turning colder later Thursday or Friday with some lake effect--oragrphic snows. The models are showing a major rain event for New England by next Thursday..but things can change somewhat and I want to hold off getting too pessimistic about that right now.
Snowfall that began tapering off across parts of Colorado this last week, after tons during November, should begin to pick up again early next week as temps in the 40's are replaced with colder temps and 4-8" of snow many areas by Monday/Tuesday With the passage of a cold front Sunday, Tahoe, Kirkwood and Utah could see at least 3-6" more snow. I think that looking at the new maps now, Alta/Snowbird has a 60% chance of seeing 6-12" by Sunday/Monday going off the Great Salt Lake. The big winners out west will be Mt. Baker to Mt. Hood that could see 1-2 feet of snow the next few days and Sun Valley's conditions will stay ideal with at least 6". Mammoth Mountain to the Tahoe region may see the freezing levels rise to around 7,500 feet this weekend and some rain may fall at the lowest elevations with several inches of snow behind the system later Sunday. Much colder weather will blast Colorado through Utah and much of the west by Monday-Tuesday with temps falling back into the teens and 20's around 7500 feet and colder than that alot.
Today's map at 15,000 feet shows an "x" off the S. NJ coast..where the storm will be and another "X" diving into Update New York and the Great Lakes. If the X (storm) can phase and dive to the south fast enough, this will turn the steering winds more out of the south and bring this storm closer to the New England coast and increase snow amounts in C/N New England.
The map also shows "X"'s off the Oregon/Washingto Coast and British Columbia which will nail these areas over the weekend with 1-3 feet of snow.
(maps available to subscribers from his web site www.bestskiweather.com Also many more updates and free ski passes)
