The Official 12/16 Storm Discussion Thread

highpeaksdrifter · Dec 12, 2005

What do all our forum meteorologists think?

redalienx11 · Dec 12, 2005

I've been curious about this too...(but a little hesitant to ask) I don't know about the 18th, but here is what Accuweather is saying about the 15/16...

Article Here....doesn't look terribly promising for New England...but better than nothing.

mattchuck2 · Dec 12, 2005

Yeah, I noticed that coming up too. I didn't want to be the first one to say anything lest I be accused of jinxing it. But now that someone else started it, let the hype begin!

ctenidae · Dec 13, 2005

Weather on teh elevator screen (NBC, I think) says snow Thrusday for Boston, Weather Channel said Rain Friday yesterday, says rain/snow on Friday.

Check back in on Monday, I'll be able to give you a better idea of the weather over the weekend.

Vortex · Dec 13, 2005

Ctenidae. Revisionist history is always the most accurate. I like your thinking. I'm hoping what ever happens take place Friday night to make the drive better than last Friday.

ctenidae · Dec 13, 2005

Forget the spoils- to the victor go the history books.

NOAA doesn't seem to expect much for Thur/Fri for the Sunapee area, but there seems to be some discontent with the GFS model:

HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON THU. LOW PRES
EMERGES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THU AND MOVES UP THE
COAST. GFS HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK WEST OVER OUR LAND AREAS AGAIN
TONIGHT. THIS WARMER SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE THE PREFERRED
ALTERNATIVE MEANING MOSTLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AND A MIX FOR
THE NORTH. THIS CLOSED SYSTEM REMAINS TO OUR N THROUGH THE WEEKEND
TO KEEP A COOL NW FLOW. MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY GET SNOW SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THAT SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES BACK IN THE MIDWEST TO SETTLE THINGS DOWN FOR
MONDAY.

skibum1321 · Dec 13, 2005

More importantly than southern areas, hopefully northern VT finally gets a big storm. They are hurting so far with all these coastal storms.

pepperdawg · Dec 13, 2005

anti jinx anti jinx anti jinx - things are looking better for end of the week event - anti jinx anti jinx

agreed - to h#ll with these southern storms....although the snow is purty to gape at - beat looking at dead grass.....

freeheelwilly · Dec 13, 2005

There's every reason to be cautiously optimistic at this juncture for a fairly big event on Friday. This from the Burlington NWS forecast discussion:
INHERITED FCST OF LIKELY POPS DURING FRIDAY STILL APPEAR REASONABLE
AS AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL SYSTEM PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO REGION.
UNCERTAINTY STILL ABOUNDS WITH EXACT TRACK OF SYSTEM SO PEGGING ANY
SNOWFALL AMTS AT THIS JUNCTURE PREMATURE AT BEST. MORE CERTAINTY
EXISTS IN THE FACT THAT EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT/QG FORCING/MID LVL
FGEN AND JET DYNAMICS WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THUS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUM WILL OCCUR W/THIS
SYSTEM. SYSTEM THEN LIFTS NORTH OF REGION FRIDAY NIGHT W/WIDESPREAD
SNOWS SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AND REMAINING PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO MORE
MESOSCALE UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES. MEAN WSW BNDRY LYR FLOW
COMBINED W/AMPLE MOISTURE AND 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -10 TO -15C RANGE
SUPPORTS PRIOR THINKING THAT WIDESPREAD LK ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SHSN
WILL CONTINUE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUM LIKELY ACROSS DACKS/NRN GREENS.
&&

And HPD: What's this 12/18 thing? Friday is the 16th. Do you know of a Sunday storm?

Greg · Dec 13, 2005

freeheelwilly said:
And HPD: What's this 12/18 thing? Friday is the 16th. Do you know of a Sunday storm?

Yeah. I changed the title. The NOAA forecast is improving for Jiminy:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=01237

It was indicating some rain yesterday, now mostly sleet and freezing rain. Maybe elevation will help keep it white?

freeheelwilly · Dec 13, 2005

Up here, if we get it, it's gonna be all white. Special Weather Statement from Burlington:

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY...

THOUGH STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THURSDAY...AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FIRM AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY...ENSURING THAT AMPLE COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA...AND THAT MOST IF NOT ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT
IS PREMATURE TO PREDICT EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL...BUT SEVERAL INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY EVENING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER EVENT.

$$

JMG

mattchuck2 · Dec 13, 2005

CH-CHING!!!!! I will try to hold back my excitement, but "SEVERAL INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY EVENING" sounds pretty damn nice.

Marc · Dec 13, 2005

I was just talking about this storm to people here at work.

Man does it get them pizzed to see how excited I am for the upcoming snow.

They must be jealous of my skiing trips... or my devilishly good looks and wit. One of the two for sure.

freeheelwilly · Dec 13, 2005

Living in the North East and complaining about snow :roll: . I just don't get that. Why not complain about gravity or magnetism while you're at it.

Marc · Dec 13, 2005

freeheelwilly said:
Living in the North East and complaining about snow :roll: . I just don't get that. Why not complain about gravity or magnetism while you're at it.

Actually, I do complain about gravity quite often when I'm on the slopes. And it's usually when I'm, ya know, on the slopes, usually head first on my belly.

And I'm shouting "damn you gravity!" :dunce:

ctenidae · Dec 13, 2005

Magnets really tick me off, what with all their opposites attracting business.

skibum1321 · Dec 13, 2005

Who is complaining about snow?

If you were talking about me I just said that I want it in the mountains. If we get it here too then that's a bonus.

VB · Dec 13, 2005

I know someone who absolutly hates snow, and she loves the pouring rain, every storm we get she gets pissed when it's snow.

mattchuck2 · Dec 14, 2005

wunderground.com calls for "heavy snow accumulation" in Wilmington, "moderate snow accumulation" in North Creek. Might be a Whiteface day. All the maps looks like Whiteface, Jay, Stowe, etc. will get pounded.

noski · Dec 14, 2005

MRV area

Roger Hill is calling for 5-10+ in north central VT to begin early Friday morning if all things stay on track....

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