1/21 Storm Discussion Thread

drjeff · Jan 20, 2011

MommaBear said:
That is why I sign on here - gets me the weather better than the weatherman! lol! And with a lot more notice. I see the speculation threads start and I start rearranging client load. I just don't like to pull the kids from school - so I need a pretty certain "snow day" indication before I head out the night before with them. We've only been successful a couple of times. But they were so worth it!

Unless things change dramatically towards the dry side of things in the next 18 hours or so, I'd say that the chances of a snowday in CT tommorrow are above 90%. While the final quantity of snow may not be too much (probably 3 to as much as maybe 8" statewide in CT with the higher amounts more likely the further East you go), the timing is going to be the problem for school districts, as most of the snow will fall between say 3AM and 10AM - so the morning rush will pretty much be in the middle of the storm

Greg · Jan 20, 2011

Both Albany and Taunton are calling for 3-6" in the greater Sundown USA region.

St. Bear · Jan 20, 2011

Greg said:
Both Albany and Taunton are calling for 3-6" in the greater Ski Sundown USA region.

Unless you were talking about this place.

hammer · Jan 20, 2011

So will this one be a bust for NNE?

billski · Jan 20, 2011

hammer said:
So will this one be a bust for NNE?

A couple inches looks probable, but who cares? They've been getting 1-2" a day (MRG, Wildcat and Loon just reported in with 5-7" overnight), and the NNE forecast continues for 1-2"/day for the next 3 days. The skiing up north is going to be magnificent.

billski · Jan 20, 2011

Magic is going to be looking pretty sweet for the weekend. Several inches of the wet stuff and 2-5" Friday is going to be a great setup.

SKIQUATTRO · Jan 20, 2011

3-5" here on LI, hopefully the kids will have a delayed opening...no reason to cancel school for 3-5"

WinnChill · Jan 20, 2011

billski said:
Magic is going to be looking pretty sweet for the weekend. Several inches of the wet stuff and 2-5" Friday is going to be a great setup.

We'll probably tweak our snowfall totals up a bit this afternoon...model track is a smidge closer so maybe another inch or two for SVT-SNH...so maybe around half a foot for some resorts. Probably won't go much higher than that since this will sort of "sweep" by rather than plow into us like other storms. We'll keep you posted though!

St. Bear · Jan 20, 2011

3-6 predicted in NW Jersey. My wife will probably have a snow day tomorrow. She said that yesterday kids were coming in during 4th period and a bus went off the road because of the ice. That means they'll be quick to pull the trigger tomorrow.

severine · Jan 20, 2011

gmcunni said:
our 4th day here.. already talk of cutting short Feb school vacation, which is fine with my kids since we'll be away and they won't be affected.

My daughter's school only has a long weekend in Feb so there's no vacation to take away from-it's basically just Presidents Day. Whatever the case, it all has to be made up by the end of June: it's illegal in CT for kids to go to regular school in July, apparently.

drjeff said:
Unless things change dramatically towards the dry side of things in the next 18 hours or so, I'd say that the chances of a snowday in CT tommorrow are above 90%. While the final quantity of snow may not be too much (probably 3 to as much as maybe 8" statewide in CT with the higher amounts more likely the further East you go), the timing is going to be the problem for school districts, as most of the snow will fall between say 3AM and 10AM - so the morning rush will pretty much be in the middle of the storm

Weather man an hour or 2 ago said that most, if not all, schools would be canceled tomorrow. He also called for 6-8" in NW CT.

gmcunni · Jan 20, 2011

state of CT official info -

MODERATE WINTER STORM EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD WEATHER THIS WEEKEND…

The latest runs of the GFS and NAM models are in fair agreement on the potential for a moderate snowstorm late tonight and Friday morning. Both models are forecasting that a low pressure system will move East from Virginia this evening to the Del Mar Va Peninsula overnight. The low is then forecast to move Northeast and slowly intensify, passing Southeast of Cape Cod Friday afternoon. The following forecast is based on a blend of the GFS and NAM Models and has a fair to good confidence level at this time:

Tonight: Becoming cloudy by late evening with light snow developing from Southwest to Northeast between 10:00 PM and 1:00 AM Friday morning. The snow may become moderate to heavy at times by daybreak. Lows in the teens.

Friday Morning: Moderate to occasionally heavy snow during the morning rush hour, tapering off to flurries from Southwest to Northeast between 9:00 – 11:00 AM. The impact on the morning rush hour is forecast to be moderate to major with 4 – 6 inches of snow on roads and temperatures in the low 20’s.

Friday Afternoon: Flurries ending by 2:00 PM. Total accumulations of 5 – 9” statewide. The impact on the afternoon rush hour is forecast to be minor to moderate at this time.

Glenn · Jan 20, 2011

This is gettting interesting! Let's hope it keeps trending in our favor.

jaywbigred · Jan 20, 2011

With 20-40 mph winds on Saturday, is this going to do much for us other than base build in the trees?

Greg · Jan 20, 2011

Warning level snows for NoCT..

hammer · Jan 20, 2011

Greg said:
Warning level snows for NoCT..

Same for central and eastern MA.

Jisch · Jan 20, 2011

It seems in past years when we'd get a hint of a storm the totals would keep dropping as the storm approached, this year they go up with every new forecast.

Loving it (though I am starting to miss my bike just a little).

John

WJenness · Jan 20, 2011

NWS just updated forecast totals for Woburn, MA

It was at 1-3" total this morning... then went to 2-5".

New totals are 4-10"

Could be an interesting commute in the AM.

-w

riverc0il · Jan 20, 2011

It seems like many of the storms this past month have had updated totals the closer the storm gets. Very interesting. A pattern I can appreciate!

roark · Jan 20, 2011

No kidding. I love seeing the maps trend up (or like today go from 'no significant snowfall predicted' to some decent accums)... Great trend!

Greg · Jan 20, 2011

21 degrees with moderate snow already. Bring it! :snow:

1/21 Storm Discussion Thread

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