Killington: Centex bailed out

[Tin Woodsman]

Your conclusion is unfounded. This would only hold true if all other resorts had a roughly zero net loss/gain. As SRO points out, there are several other resorts that could have had large drops. Others (especially in the North) may have even been up...

No, Greg. All other resorts in VT, AS A WHOLE, did in fact post a zero net loss/gain.

The fact is that the ASC resorts posted the two largest drops BY FAR, and that overcame any gains by other areas up north and at Okemo.

 

[ctenidae]

Interestingly, a 6% drop in skier visits for VT is not all that odd. They had a 15% gain in 2005 over 2004. The standard deviation for the # of skiers is 200,000, so this year's loss is well within the expected range. Looks like it's bounced between 3.9M and 4.4M for the past 10 years.

 

[Greg]

Actually, it IS correct. I should have spoken more clearly. The rest of VT, as a whole, was in fact up slightly. I'm sure there were individual resorts other than Mt. Sneux and K-Mart who were down. However, it's simple math.

We know how many skier days were lost at the ASC areas.
K-Mart = 190,000
Mt. Sneaux = 95,000
Total ASC in VT loss = 285,000

We know how many skier days were lost across the state of VT.

Now that I look up thread, I realize thebigo did the numbers for me, so I won't repeat it. Whether other resorts lost a couple thousand skier days is irrelevant - these two were clearly the biggest offenders.

No, Greg. All other resorts in VT, AS A WHOLE, did in fact post a zero net loss/gain.

The fact is that the ASC resorts posted the two largest drops BY FAR, and that overcame any gains by other areas up north and at Okemo.

Your claim that only the ASC resorts were the only ones that saw a significant (subjective) drop is still just speculation. You may very well be right, but without ski visit numbers broken down by resort, you simply can't make this claim. Also, what you initially said was "The entire state except for K-Mart and Mt. Sneaux was up slightly (a couple thousand skier days)." That misleadingly reads as if every other resort individually was up. It was reasonable for me to indicate that wasn't correct. Your clarification of "as a whole" is correct based on simple math. That's not what you initially said.

 

[ski_resort_observer]

Tin...as Greg pointed out...unless all the other Vermont resort's skier visits were basically unchnaged then you clain that the 2 ASC resorts accounted for ALL of the lost skier visits but without that data it's just an opinion.

Example, just hypothetical...if Okemo had an increase of 50,000 skier days and MRG had a decrease of 10,000, Stratton a decrease of 40,000 then the totals would remain unchanged but obviously other resorts aside from the 2 ASC resorts are included in the overall 6% loss from the previous ski season even tho the 2 ASC's losses equal the -6% figure.

 

[Tin Woodsman]

Tin...as Greg pointed out...unless all the other Vermont resort's skier visits were basically unchnaged then you clain that the 2 ASC resorts accounted for ALL of the lost skier visits but without that data it's just an opinion.

Example, just hypothetical...if Okemo had an increase of 50,000 skier days and MRG had a decrease of 10,000, Stratton a decrease of 40,000 then the totals would remain unchanged but obviously other resorts aside from the 2 ASC resorts are included in the overall 6% loss from the previous ski season even tho the 2 ASC's losses equal the -6% figure.

I understand that, and I apologize if it wasn't clear as it could have been. Clearly, every other individual resort in VT didn't post a gain.

Regardless, there are only so many areas in VT that have the ability to materially "move the needle" as it were. K-Mart, Snow, Stratton, Okemo for sure. To a lesser extent, SB, Stowe, and maybe Jay. We've seen elsewhere in this thread that Stratton was down 11%. I'm not certain, but think that would represent about 50,000 skier days. It is likely that Okemo, with their snowmaking rep (no worries about a lousy natural snow season)and expansions at Jackson Gore, was possibly up slightly. If they had been down by any large degree (say 5% or more), they starting with a big enough base that there's no way the gainers in the north (who generally have lower skier vistis per area - in the 300K to 400K range) would gain enough to offst losses at ALL of the big 4 down south. As such, the point remains that K-Mart and Mt. Snow:

1) Had a larger drop in % terms than the vast majority of other VT ski resorts

2) Had by FAR the largest drops in reported skier visits

This doesn't speak well to their brands, their product or their mgmt.

 

[Greg]

I understand that, and I apologize if it wasn't clear as it could have been. Clearly, every other individual resort in VT didn't post a gain.

Regardless, there are only so many areas in VT that have the ability to materially "move the needle" as it were. K-Mart, Snow, Stratton, Okemo for sure. To a lesser extent, SB, Stowe, and maybe Jay. We've seen elsewhere in this thread that Stratton was down 11%. I'm not certain, but think that would represent about 50,000 skier days. It is likely that Okemo, with their snowmaking rep (no worries about a lousy natural snow season)and expansions at Jackson Gore, was possibly up slightly. If they had been down by any large degree (say 5% or more), they starting with a big enough base that there's no way the gainers in the north (who generally have lower skier vistis per area - in the 300K to 400K range) would gain enough to offst losses at ALL of the big 4 down south. As such, the point remains that K-Mart and Mt. Snow:

1) Had a larger drop in % terms than the vast majority of other VT ski resorts

2) Had by FAR the largest drops in reported skier visits

This doesn't speak well to their brands, their product or their mgmt.

These are all well stated and valid observations. However, the weather certainly did play the largest factor in all this (NH was down 10% overall; certainly Attitash wasn't the only culprit there). The question is why did the adverse weather seemingly effect the ASC resorts and perhaps Stratton more than the others?

 

[Tin Woodsman]

These are all well stated and valid observations. However, the weather certainly did play the largest factor in all this (NH was down 10% overall; certainly Attitash wasn't the only culprit there). The question is why did the adverse weather seemingly effect the ASC resorts and perhaps Stratton more than the others?

I'm sure weather was a factor, but it didn't impact Okemo at all, and it seems to have impacted Stratton far less than ASC. Not sure about Bromley one way or the other and Magic is too small and volatile to matter. SB and MRG didn't really have great weather years (only above I-89 were things strong in that regard) but they seem to have done reasonably well.

I think it's bad weather plus a bad product.

 

[tree_skier]

Having been at mount snow last winter virtually every weekend day they would have had a hard time getting anymore people on the hill on good weather days.

now a couple of points about the mount snow numbers.

1. Haystack was gone, thier sales were grouped with MS since the early 90's. Alot of the haystack traffic would have gone to other areas.

2. Weather, now I know the weather isn't that much different over southern VT but MS is primarily a day trip area and although they had great conditions for the weather christmas week and MLK weekend had awful weather which killed the 2 biggest periods.

Now in my humble opinion even though MS had conditions as good as any in So VT for much of last winter with the weather issues more then a few day trippers either stayed home or went farther north.