Smellytele
Well-known member
Take it for what it is worth...
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820
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Another winter perdiction
- Thread starter Smellytele
- Start date
What are the areas with nothing? Average snowfall expected?
Smellytele
Well-known member
What are the areas with nothing? Average snowfall expected?
That is what I am thinking but then look at the other map lower in the article...
skinowworklater
Member
- Joined
- May 26, 2012
- Messages
- 87
- Points
- 8
It's way to early to believe in any of this, especially anything from AccWeather. But I do like the hype!
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
I'm guessing the first map might be Accuweather doing its' typical thing where they generally dont give a rat's azz about you unless you live in a major city.
ScottySkis
Well-known member
I just ski more in PA. if that snowy nice map is accurate.
fbrissette
Well-known member
As much as I'd like to believe this, the truth is that long-range weather forecasts are worth nothing in the north east. No matter what they tell you about El Nino or La Nina, the correlation between these events and weather in the North-East does NOT exist (no statistically significant correlation). A significant correlation does exist out west (especially along the coast) but not out east. My climate modeler friends at Environment Canada are trying very hard, but they will be the first to tell you that the skill of long-term forecasts at 4 months is '0' for the north-east.
Francois
jaja111
New member
http://forums.alpinezone.com/showthread.php?98551-2011-2012-Winter-expected-to-have-Extreme-Weather Ah, didn't happen.
http://thesiweather.com/2011-2012-winter-outlook/ Wasn't even close
http://forums.alpinezone.com/showthread.php?102258-2011-12-Winter-Highlights-Accuweather Pure incompetence to drive advertising
It always seems that 6-8 months is just enough for some to forget the failure of these longer term predictions to accurately predict anything other than it may be colder in January compared to now, and that it will be likely to snow if the temp is below freezing and precipitation can be seen 12 hours away on the radar. Meteorology has a long long way to go.
Winter predictions, or any weather predictions for that matter, more than 100 hours out are pure infotainment.
http://thesiweather.com/2011-2012-winter-outlook/ Wasn't even close
http://forums.alpinezone.com/showthread.php?102258-2011-12-Winter-Highlights-Accuweather Pure incompetence to drive advertising
It always seems that 6-8 months is just enough for some to forget the failure of these longer term predictions to accurately predict anything other than it may be colder in January compared to now, and that it will be likely to snow if the temp is below freezing and precipitation can be seen 12 hours away on the radar. Meteorology has a long long way to go.
Winter predictions, or any weather predictions for that matter, more than 100 hours out are pure infotainment.
St. Bear
New member
Nothing wrong with that. Many of us have gone 4-5 months without skiing, and still have a few more to go. Nothing wrong with a little late summer optimism.
fbrissette
Well-known member
Weather forecast has roughly gone in 20 years from a 50% forecast success at 48 hours to a 50% success at 120 hours (5 days). In other words, on average, the 5 day weather forecast is pretty much a toss of the dice. Nowadays, the 48-hour weather forecast is quite good, thanks to faster supercomputers and additional weather data (especially satellites data). Long range forecasts (3 months and up) do have skills (meaning that they are better than a random sampling of the climate past) in several parts of the world, especially where the climate is strongly influenced by the ocean. In these cases, indices such as as sea temperature anomalies provide useful information. Such is not the case for the north-east and we likely won't see any useful long-range forecast in our lifetime.
In winter, pay attention to the 48-hour forecast and then, as mentioned above, the radar is your best friend (that and good winter tires).
Francois
Smellytele
Well-known member
Not one person here has said this is what it will be. I even stated right off the bat "Take it for what it is worth..."
Puck it
Well-known member
I just hope that I am not excited by 4" of powder like last year!
What are the areas with nothing? Average snowfall expected?
I like this one better!
snowmonster
New member
What are the areas with nothing? Average snowfall expected?
I don't like this prediction. It says that I will spend a lot of time shovelling snow around Boston but the northern New England mountains will get nothing. Not cool! It should be the other way around!
Puck it
Well-known member
Smellytele
Well-known member
Actually it will have average snowfall for the mountains but above average for southern NE as far as that map shows.
x10003q
Active member
I am the person responsible for this season's weather. The winter hinges on my decision to get snow tires and rims for my car. If I get snow tires we will not see any snow. If I do not get snow tires I am sure there will be record snows.
snowmonster
New member
OK. But, I still want the reverse -- average snow in Boston, above average in the Greens, Whites, Mahoosucs and the Loaf!
jaja111
New member
I am the person responsible for this season's weather. The winter hinges on my decision to get snow tires and rims for my car. If I get snow tires we will not see any snow. If I do not get snow tires I am sure there will be record snows.
Being that this is the more accurate assessment this far out, based on the Murphy's law approach, I'll say that New England and the Northeast in general will get HAMMERED this winter. Why? It's because I'm moving to the Pacific Northwest, which I'll now predict gets a snow drought. The prognostication offered by the inaccuweather map clearly shows their favor to this regarding the Northwest. That may be alright as I'll be too broke from the move anyhow for more than 10-15 days out for the first season, even less if a job takes awhile to find.
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