1/12 Storm Discussion Thread

billski · Jan 10, 2012

Urgent - winter weather message
national weather service gray me
304 pm est tue jan 10 2012

...winter storm watch in effect from late wednesday night through
thursday evening...

The national weather service in gray has issued a winter storm
watch...which is in effect from late wednesday night through
thursday evening.

* locations...the mountains of northern new hampshire and western
maine...the foothills...and the coastal plain.

* hazard types...snow...with a mix of sleet and freezing rain
possible for locations along the coastal plain.

* accumulations...6 inches or more are possible

* timing...snow will begin late wednesday night across
southwestern new hampshire...and spread northeast from there.
Thursday morning snow may mix with sleet or freezing rain before
ending as freezing drizzle thursday evening.

* impacts...cold temperatures preceding snow will help them
become snow covered and slippery shortly after onset.

* winds...northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* temperatures...in the lower 20s.

* visibilities...heavy snowfall may reduce visibility to one half
mile or less at times.

hammer · Jan 10, 2012

We don't need Accuweather...we have billski.:wink:

Thanks for the update.

BenedictGomez · Jan 10, 2012

billski said:
Urgent - winter weather message
national weather service gray me
304 pm est tue jan 10 2012

...winter storm watch in effect from late wednesday night through
thursday evening...

I give them credit for at least making a prediction.

Apparently everyone else is going to wail until they're either sopping wet or getting out their snow blowers before making a prognostication!

billski · Jan 10, 2012

hammer said:
We don't need Accuweather...we have billski.:wink:

Thanks for the update.

Are you comparing me to the weather babes? No match!

BenedictGomez · Jan 10, 2012

Accuweather doesnt seem all that impressed.

Of course, they've been wrong about this storm all along, so...........

I like the 8 - 10 NOAA is thinking for SVT better!

BenedictGomez · Jan 10, 2012

Then there's the Intellicast one, I'm been watching this one since early this morning, and they keep bumping up the snow totals (which I imagine has to be a good thing).

Note most think it can snow THROUGH Thursday, and these totals are only through 1pm Thursday, with as much as a foot haven fallen along much of the spine by then.

Yes please!

ctenidae · Jan 10, 2012

billski said:

Best part of winter?
Sweater puppies.

Off topic, but that pic is worth doubling up on.

WinnChill · Jan 10, 2012

BenedictGomez said:
I've wasted the last few hours checking in on as many weather sites, outlets, and individual forecasts as humanly possible.

I've seen everything from Wednesday night through Thursday will be mostly all mixed precip with rain and sleet, to NNE could get walloped with up to 18 inches of snow (although only FIS said 18 is possible). There seem to be more folks on the the negative side saying 6 inches is about as much as they'd hope for, but there are several who think 6-12 is a possibility (fingers crossed).

This all only confirms what I already knew. Man is not yet sophisticated enough to predict the weather. LOL. This 'event" is less than 30 hours away for God's sake.

Depends on which region the forecast is for. The Adirondacks from the link you mentioned in another post will be further away from the precip field whereas parts of New England will be closer---the forecasts of course will vary. Hillier terrain can enhance snowfall as opposed to flatter areas--the direction from which the moisture arrives makes a difference. And we have to consider that the upper level dynamics/mechanics of the first system (Thurs) is not as strong but the moisture supply is decent. A one-size-fits-all forecast for a variety of areas doesn't work.

St. Bear · Jan 10, 2012

Matt Noyes from NECN is still concerned about mixing, but he could be talking about Southern New England.

From 4cast perspective, cause for pause is trend for warmer solution at 6K-12K feet in altitude, but colder at surface. More sleet/frz rain?

billski · Jan 10, 2012

I'm going anyways.

St. Bear said:
Matt Noyes from NECN is still concerned about mixing, but he could be talking about Southern New England.

It's hard to read the twit's tweets. At the same time he tweeted that tonight, he also wrote

"I truly believe that, as of Tuesday evening, there is still too much uncertainty to speak confidently on amounts for interior Massachusetts into Southern New Hampshire, but chances are good there would be a few inches before a change to sleet and rain, and that's what I've indicated in this forecast map. I feel more confident about a 6"-10" snowfall in Northern New England, with perhaps some 12" amounts. I also feel confident about a virtual non-event for much of coastal Massachusetts and far Southern New England."

Then he posted this chart:

6a00d83451c01c69e20168e5524bc7970c-800wi

While most of us are looking for a forecast that we like best, Winnchill said it best. Too many moving parts to be able to predict microscopic levels of detail.

Most likely I will head out tomorrow, given the ugly transition zone not worthy of being encountered.

gpetrics · Jan 10, 2012

Lionel's 18" is predicated on the secondary low being more powerful than forecast, and entraining lots of Lake moisture, and even then, only in a narrow bullseye. It'd be unfair to paint his call as a flat out 18".

BenedictGomez · Jan 11, 2012

Intellicast is pushing our storm east into Maine...... :uzi: Bring it back!!!!!

But the single chair guy is calling for 10 - 20, yes 20 ("or more") through Friday!

I cant take this anymore, but given the positively ridiculous disparity in "predictions" amongst people who ostensibly know what they're talking about, I'm guessing this ranks high on the degree-of-difficulty in storm predictions.

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

Edd · Jan 11, 2012

Yikes. I may have to snake out of work for this one.

WinnChill · Jan 11, 2012

BenedictGomez said:
I cant take this anymore, but given the positively ridiculous disparity in "predictions" amongst people who ostensibly know what they're talking about, I'm guessing this ranks high on the degree-of-difficulty in storm predictions.

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

Me either. How about quit making all forecasters out to be a bunch of idiots. If it was as easy as looking at a single index--like an NAO as your signature suggests--everyone could do it. It's a very difficult forecast--we're trying.

riverc0il · Jan 11, 2012

WinnChill said:
Me either. How about quit making all forecasters out to be a bunch of idiots. If it was as easy as looking at a single index--like an NAO as your signature suggests--everyone could do it. It's a very difficult forecast--we're trying.

And of course, no one remembers when you are right +90% of the time either. Weather folks take a lot of flack but most forecasts are right far more often than they are wrong and rarely are the forecasts 100% complete and total busts.

billski · Jan 11, 2012

Pretty neat "make your own" forecast for those sparring with the pros.

And if you really want to get on TV, get a hot babe and analyze these.

not enough?

I'm waiting for your forecast now!

WinnChill · Jan 11, 2012

riverc0il said:
And of course, no one remembers when you are right 90% of the time either. Weather folks take a lot of flack but most forecasts are right far more often than they are wrong and rarely are the forecasts 100% complete and total busts.

Thanks River. I don't mean to come off crabby but I'm worried about a big time bust on this--plus the coffee is wearing off already.

billski · Jan 11, 2012

WinnChill said:
Me either. How about quit making all forecasters out to be a bunch of idiots. If it was as easy as looking at a single index--like an NAO as your signature suggests--everyone could do it. It's a very difficult forecast--we're trying.

+++++
I'm just heading north. Hey guys, you picked an outdoor sport. This is weather. Things change. Deal with it!

marcski · Jan 11, 2012

riverc0il said:
And of course, no one remembers when you are right +90% of the time either. Weather folks take a lot of flack but most forecasts are right far more often than they are wrong and rarely are the forecasts 100% complete and total busts.

Don't they execute weathermen in China if they are wong too many times??

.

WinnChill · Jan 11, 2012

billski said:
+++++
I'm just heading north. Hey guys, you picked an outdoor sport. This is weather. Things change. Deal with it!

Safe travels Bill! Send some storm reports when you get a chance...I'll be curious how this pans out up there...particularly Friday with that second batch.

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