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3/6-3/7 storm?
- Thread starter gladerider
- Start date
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
steamboat1
New member
My weather guru has the storm trending further north. At this time he's not making a prediction of where the rain/snow line will be.
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
18z GFS just released, and it comes north AGAIN.
NOW some of ski country gets whacked, specifically the Catskills and Poconos.
Given the Poconos never gets snow, that's enough for me to scientifically conclude this model run is BS.
NOW some of ski country gets whacked, specifically the Catskills and Poconos.
Given the Poconos never gets snow, that's enough for me to scientifically conclude this model run is BS.
gmcunni
Active member
[h=3]Time to get the Bread and Milk...?[/h]
gmcunni
Active member
CT forecasts:
Model overview...(keep in mind snowfall totals are MODEL guidance)
18z GFS: Snowfall totals generally 10-20". Very heavy, wet snow across the entire state. Areas near the coast could mix with rain for a while, with amounts on the low end of that range. The 12z GFS was on the order of about 6-12".
18z NAM: Snowfall totals generally 8-16". Very heavy, wet snow that could mix with rain for a time across southern and southeastern sections. Snowfall amounts are higher across northeastern CT and slightly lower across coastal New London County.
15z SREF: Snowfall totals generally 8-14". Also shows heavy, wet snow, but is colder than the NAM. The shoreline totals might be slightly lower.
12z Euro: Snowfall totals of about 2-4". Periods of light snow, with borderline temperatures. The model has taken a significant shift to the northwest. If the trend were to continue for the next run, amounts would be much higher than advertised here.
12z Canadian: Snowfall totals generally 5-10". A wintry mix ends as snow across the entire state. Snowfall amounts would be somewhat lower near the coast.
12z GFS and 12z GFS ensembles: Snowfall totals generally 6-12". Similar with heavy, wet snow across the state.
09z SREF: Snowfall totals generally 6-12".
Model overview...(keep in mind snowfall totals are MODEL guidance)
18z GFS: Snowfall totals generally 10-20". Very heavy, wet snow across the entire state. Areas near the coast could mix with rain for a while, with amounts on the low end of that range. The 12z GFS was on the order of about 6-12".
18z NAM: Snowfall totals generally 8-16". Very heavy, wet snow that could mix with rain for a time across southern and southeastern sections. Snowfall amounts are higher across northeastern CT and slightly lower across coastal New London County.
15z SREF: Snowfall totals generally 8-14". Also shows heavy, wet snow, but is colder than the NAM. The shoreline totals might be slightly lower.
12z Euro: Snowfall totals of about 2-4". Periods of light snow, with borderline temperatures. The model has taken a significant shift to the northwest. If the trend were to continue for the next run, amounts would be much higher than advertised here.
12z Canadian: Snowfall totals generally 5-10". A wintry mix ends as snow across the entire state. Snowfall amounts would be somewhat lower near the coast.
12z GFS and 12z GFS ensembles: Snowfall totals generally 6-12". Similar with heavy, wet snow across the state.
09z SREF: Snowfall totals generally 6-12".
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
The 18z GFS ensemble is even better than the operational run!
If only this were to happen...
If only this were to happen...
St. Bear
New member
@Accu_Henry: GFS has 10 inches in NYC now. Might have to rethink that snow map.
ScottySkis
Well-known member
When I was leaving my job, local weather stations in NYC were already talking about this storm being snow event in the city.
St. Bear
New member
If we get anywhere near a foot, I'll likely be at Elk on Thurs.
ScottySkis
Well-known member
Great place to go to.
Euler
Active member
Any ideas on timing of this..., if SoVT were to wind up getting some snow would it be late Weds into Thurs?
drjeff
Well-known member
That's the likely timeframe right now- the question then becomes can the precip get that far North in signficant amounts and how much of a factor will the winds be! Regardless of whether or not the precip makes it to SoVt, it looks like the vast majority of New England will be in for some strong winds as the storm transitions up from the mid-atlantic on over the the Canadian Maritimes area
planb420
New member
Come on baby...HIT SKI SUNDOWN
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
00z GFS out, and it now has substantial snow for Vermont and New Hampshire, but I have a tough time believing this.
hammer
Active member
If this makes the MA/NH roads tough on Friday morning I'm not going to be happy...
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
The Euro continues to be the most conservative with the snow totals. Below is 00z from last night. The big difference is it puts a 2nd "Jackpot zone" in eastern MA/RI.
The NAM continues to be the most "snow-happy" with the totals. Below is 12z just out less than 10 minutes ago.
The NAM continues to be the most "snow-happy" with the totals. Below is 12z just out less than 10 minutes ago.
St. Bear
New member
If I get out on Thurs, it's looking like either Gore or Magic.
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
12z GFS just took a BIG jog east, which is really bad for pretty much everyone.
Hopefully it's an outlier run and most of the ensemble members are still over some ski country.
Hopefully it's an outlier run and most of the ensemble members are still over some ski country.
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
Because we can NEVER have too many maps or predictions.........
DT at Wxrisk is thinking this "left-hooks" back into northern New England more than anyone I've seen, as such, here is his map. It would be fantastic if true. He's been dead wrong on this storm so far though.
DT at Wxrisk is thinking this "left-hooks" back into northern New England more than anyone I've seen, as such, here is his map. It would be fantastic if true. He's been dead wrong on this storm so far though.
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