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Weekend of December 14th

BenedictGomez

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day3_composite.gif

Yup, that's definitely government work! Who can spot the obvious logical failure? lol

NAM THROUGH MONDAY:

If I had to ignore one right now, I'd ignore the NAM, doesnt get very accurate until the event is a day or 2 out.

There's base enough in northern vermont at upper elevations that I have skied trees already.

Fureelz? That's great news.
 

BenedictGomez

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The last frame shows chance of .25" of ICE accumulation over Jersey

Oh, is that what it is? Pic appeared pretty small and I missed it. Those maps are still a complete departure from the reality of how this appears to be shaking out though.
 
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Weather Channel is saying 8-12!!!

I feel like that is a little bit exaggerated, however TWC needs to hype things in order to get their precious ratings.

I personally think 6-10 will fall in the majority of that 8-12 area and a 12 inch jackpot around Nashua.
 

billski

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This is a computer forecast of precipitation that will fall during the 12 hour period from 7 AM EST through 7 PM EST for one day before the date indicated at the bottom of the map. This is normally the day after tomorrow. Amounts include liquid forms plus the water equivalent (melted amount) of any solid forms. Precipitation is contoured in steps starting with .01 inch, then .10 inch, .25 inch, .50 inch, .75, 1.0 inch and in steps of one inch after that. Areas shown in black have less than .01 inch (usually none) forecast.

pcpday3.gif
 

billski

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This is a computer forecast of precipitation that falls during the 12 hour period from 7 AM EST through 7 PM EST for one day before the date indicated at the bottom of the map. This is normally three days from today. Amounts include liquid forms plus the water equivalent (melted amount) of any solid forms. Precipitation is contoured in steps starting with .01 inch, then .10 inch, .25 inch, .50 inch, .75, 1.0 inch and in steps of one inch after that. Areas shown in black have less than .01 inch (usually none) forecast.

pcpday4.gif
 

BenedictGomez

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I prefer the Canadian model for this storm........


......because it gives me the most snow!

Wouldnt be the best for ski country though, and it is Christmas, so perhaps I should cheer on the GFS.
 
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Bingo, classic coastal right there.

NAM is up to its old tricks. It takes some tropical moisture from the Bahamas and absolutely bombs the low off the Jersey shore. It then looks like its going to cut the low inland, but then it takes it right into the cold dome, which blocks the low and forces it due east from Block Island to Cape Cod. It shoots the canal and becomes an absolute precip bomb, as the tropical moisture picked up the warm sector rides into the commahead and becomes thundersnow. Don't know the precip amts but they are going to be insane.

No way this happens, but a very interesting (and very snowy) solution. I wish the NAM was reliable (It's been all over the place) but since it isn't, I'm going to disregard this past run.
 
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