Week of February 2nd, storm speculation

skiberg · Jan 30, 2014

Can we ever just get some good news. I think the NEK is in a historic snowstorm drought,. I would be interested to know if there has ever been as prolonged period of such few major storms, as has happened for the past three years in the north country.

BenedictGomez · Jan 30, 2014

Cannonball said:
Because, judging by this map, the NWS is using MS Paint to make their forecasts now and it's easier to draw straight lines.

I'm come to the conclusion that NWS is really horrible for many weather-related things. A little more effort please, ya know.

moguler6 said:
Matt Noyes just posted a pic of the Euro 240 hr snowfall accumulation and it has all New England in the 24" range. Yes please!

Unless he added some serious caveats, that's extremely misleading/irresponsible.

That energy isnt even close to making landfall on the west coast yet. It's promising that all the models are showing some sort of large disturbance around Febuary 9th, but to post blizzard maps is a bit much.

IMO, what's happening in the digital age is that people fear that if they dont just "go" with something, they're left behind in terms of marketing themselves. People have been posting maps showing 20" and 30" inches for the northeast for Feb 9, and it gets people who dont know any better (i.e. most people) all "canned goods and bottled h2o" crazy excited, but the fact is there's much that could wrong in the next 10 days to torpedo that storm or make the 35" totals more like 3.5".

MadMadWorld · Jan 30, 2014

BenedictGomez said:
I'm come to the conclusion that NWS is really horrible for many weather-related things. A little more effort please, ya know.

Unless he added some serious caveats, that's extremely misleading/irresponsible.

That energy isnt even close to making landfall on the west coast yet. It's promising that all the models are showing some sort of large disturbance around Febuary 9th, but to post blizzard maps is a bit much.

IMO, what's happening in the digital age is that people fear that if they dont just "go" with something, they're left behind in terms of marketing themselves. People have been posting maps showing 20" and 30" inches for the northeast for Feb 9, and it gets people who dont know any better (i.e. most people) all "canned goods and bottled h2o" crazy excited, but the fact is there's much that could wrong in the next 10 days to torpedo that storm or make the 35" totals more like 3.5".

Maybe he does side work for Costco and BJ's

billski · Jan 30, 2014

skiberg said:
Can we ever just get some good news.

St. Bear · Jan 30, 2014

BenedictGomez said:
Unless he added some serious caveats, that's extremely misleading/irresponsible.

That energy isnt even close to making landfall on the west coast yet. It's promising that all the models are showing some sort of large disturbance around Febuary 9th, but to post blizzard maps is a bit much.

IMO, what's happening in the digital age is that people fear that if they dont just "go" with something, they're left behind in terms of marketing themselves. People have been posting maps showing 20" and 30" inches for the northeast for Feb 9, and it gets people who dont know any better (i.e. most people) all "canned goods and bottled h2o" crazy excited, but the fact is there's much that could wrong in the next 10 days to torpedo that storm or make the 35" totals more like 3.5".

Of all the mets that I generally follow, he's one of the more conservative, so I'm sure he put up disclaimers galore.

dlague · Jan 30, 2014

Second half of winter is calling for more significant snow events and cold temps to stick around!

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podunk77 · Jan 30, 2014

The video version of Matt's current NECN forecast includes a lot of caveats... he's basically talking about a pattern change over the next 10 days that brings with it more moisture than we've had for a while, and so if the temps stay cold enough we're more likely to get snow than we've been for a while.

Huck_It_Baby · Jan 30, 2014

from_the_NEK said:
(still only 3.5" at my stake).

What's the elevation your stake?

from_the_NEK · Jan 30, 2014

skiberg said:
Can we ever just get some good news. I think the NEK is in a historic snowstorm drought,. I would be interested to know if there has ever been as prolonged period of such few major storms, as has happened for the past three years in the north country.

The thing is over the last three years it has JUST been the central NEK (and the NW part of NH) in this weird snow hole. To be fair to mother nature, St Johnsbury did have a few near record snow fall years in the late '00s. Now I think we may be seeing the averaging out of those years. But this snow drought is getting a bit ridiculous

from_the_NEK · Jan 30, 2014

Huck_It_Baby said:
What's the elevation your stake?

Roughly 1000'

catsup948 · Jan 30, 2014

I'm just hoping sugarloaf gets in the game a little more for the 2/5 system. I think they will do ok this weekend maybe a few inches of paste. If they can manage 10 inches by the summit I would be happy.

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Huck_It_Baby · Jan 30, 2014

from_the_NEK said:
Roughly 1000'

Thanks!

skiberg · Jan 30, 2014

I think there have been only like 1 or 2 storms of more than 6 inches of snow in like the past 1000 days in the NEK. That as to be some sort of historical record.

from_the_NEK · Jan 30, 2014

skiberg said:
I think there have been only like 1 or 2 storms of more than 6 inches of snow in like the past 1000 days in the NEK. That as to be some sort of historical record.

I'll have to see if the dudes at the Fairbanks Museum can dig up that stat.

from_the_NEK · Jan 30, 2014

Let's see 1000 days would go back to...
January 31, 2014 to Jan 30, 2013 = 365 days... then to January 28, 2012 (leap year) = 730 days Back to the beginning of November 2011 = 820 days. 1000 days goes back into late winter of the 2010-11 season so I might avoid that.

My question to the Fairbanks guys would be: "Since the beginning of November 2011 (roughly 820 days ago) how many snowfall events over 6" has the Fairbanks Museum recorded?" My estimate would be 6 with only 2 over 1 ft.

wa-loaf · Jan 30, 2014

catsup948 said:
I'm just hoping sugarloaf gets in the game a little more for the 2/5 system. I think they will do ok this weekend maybe a few inches of paste. If they can manage 10 inches by the summit I would be happy.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

A nice coating for the rocks and stumps in the woods this weekend and then a big dump next week would be ideal. Going to have to go burn something ski related to appease the snow gods ...

BenedictGomez · Jan 30, 2014

from_the_NEK said:
Roughly 1000'

Not to rub salt in the wounds, but in west/central NJ I live at the bottom of a valley at only 200' and I have nearly twice that.

wa-loaf · Jan 30, 2014

1-3 feet next week? Again, I'll believe it when I ski it!

from_the_NEK · Jan 30, 2014

BenedictGomez said:
Not to rub salt in the wounds, but in west/central NJ I live at the bottom of a valley at only 200' and I have nearly twice that.

At this point, I think I've become desensitized to that kind of information. How many 20"+ snowfalls have there been between NJ and S NE over the last three winters? Whatever number you come up with it is still more than here.

from_the_NEK · Jan 30, 2014

wa-loaf said:

Uhhhh, Tim... Try not packing down all of the snow in front of the stake? I wonder if the sharp decrease on the snowdepth chart today is was caused by him packing down the snow in front of the stake. It definitely wasn't due to a thaw this week.

Week of February 2nd, storm speculation

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