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2/12 storm speculation

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Rowsdower

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:thumbdown: Well, I live here and all it does is screw up my life. I'd be the first to ship it up north where it belongs! I can always drive up to enjoy it!

But the "glades" behind my work are rideable!

Q9rDvejl.jpg
 

Wavewheeler

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You live in North Jersey. All we get is slush and mess. Anything that looks white is ice now. :( My daughter is up in New Brunswick and will often tell me it's snowing up there and it's raining here. Amazing what a difference 35 miles makes.
 

Wavewheeler

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While up north got all that snow last Wednesday a lot of NJ got rain, freezing rain and sleet. A lot of the snow washed or away, melted and/or become slush and then frozen ice. No way does it look like that picture.

It was sad to drive home last night and go from a winter wonderland to the crud that is winter at the Jersey Shore. When we do get snow, it's usually wet and doesn't last long.
 

hammer

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So what are the latest guesses regarding the models? Just checked the local NWS discussion and there still seems to be a lot of uncertainty...
 

SnowRock

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I see my holly has already released a snowfall map for thursday am. Does this storm deliver to points north? Work has made it difficult for me to catch much fresh this season but I could set-up for this one. Just trying to figure out where
 

fbrissette

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I see my holly has already released a snowfall map for thursday am. Does this storm deliver to points north? Work has made it difficult for me to catch much fresh this season but I could set-up for this one. Just trying to figure out where

Models show nothing significant for at least the next five days for ski country.
 

4aprice

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It wouldnt shock me if the higher points up in the northern part of the state look something like that.

Another 3" tonight BTW.

No way. There's a decent snowpack on top of Camelback (Elev 2000') but nothing like that. There are some off trail things that can be skied this year too. I have somewhere around 10-14" otg (2 new last night), we're probably at about 50" for the season, good for NJ but not comparable to anywhere that's supposed to get snow.

Alex

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fbrissette

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No way. There's a decent snowpack on top of Camelback (Elev 2000') but nothing like that. There are some off trail things that can be skied this year too. I have somewhere around 10-14" otg (2 new last night), we're probably at about 50" for the season, good for NJ but not comparable to anywhere that's supposed to get snow.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

To be fair this was taken near the top of Big Jay at nearly 4000'. There is 4-5 feet of snow on the ground, whereas it is only about 2 feet at 2000'.
 

BenedictGomez

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Even the higher elevations didn't keep any of the previous snowpack. Everything melted before the last couple of snowfalls, so there's probably no more than 12" tops on the ground.

I'm only at 200 foot elevation, and I have about 12 inches on the ground right now. I would think they'd have more.

So what are the latest guesses regarding the models? Just checked the local NWS discussion and there still seems to be a lot of uncertainty...

Euro, Canadian and even Brits are onboard for a BIG snowstorm. Only the GFS, which the news you see on TV is largely driven off of, doesnt see the storm and has an OTS event. New Jersey could get pounded again.

Here is yesterday's 12z Euro ensemble.

1655555_645451385502123_63350763_o.png
 

hammer

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Euro, Canadian and even Brits are onboard for a BIG snowstorm. Only the GFS, which the news you see on TV is largely driven off of, doesnt see the storm and has an OTS event. New Jersey could get pounded again.
Lately the TV mets I've been watching have been showing more than one model run. Think they are trying to hedge their bets as well. Still wonder since not all models are lined up yet but am still hopeful.
 

BenedictGomez

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Here's the NAM's version of the snowfall map.

NAM is a little outside the window when you take it seriously, but it also shows a big snow event.

BgFLmGRCYAAoJLV.jpg:large
 

BenedictGomez

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This is the sort of map I like a lot at this point.

It's from Bastardi's kid, and what he's essentially acknowleding is that THIS far out, with track uncertainty up in the air, these are the areas that could receive big snow. Now, some people might think a map like this is completely useless, but I 100% disagree, as he's basically "ruling out" geographies, which IMO is useful.

KEEP IN MIND, ONLY THE GFS HAS THE STORM EAST AT THIS POINT


1496802_646979408692858_791887361_n.png
 
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