Jay Peak bombshell - Page 131

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  1. #1301
    Quote Originally Posted by thetrailboss View Post
    Wow, just wow. To put this in perspective, Vail bought Okemo, the Sunapee lease, AND Crested Butte for $82 million to Triple Peaks, and $155 million to the REIT land owners (total of $237 million for THREE resorts).

    https://vtdigger.org/2018/06/04/vail...-million-deal/

    Vail bought Stowe's mountain operations for $50 million.
    Crested Butte and Sunnapee are located on government land. Crested butte only owns the base area. What this shows is the base area is worth a whole lot more than a ski area. Owning a ski area with a base could be a lot more valuable. Is Okemo ski area on Public land. 250 still sounds very high for Jay. That would be a 28 price to earnings ratio.

  2. #1302
    Apparently last year their EBITA was about 10 million. Historically, unless some major over bidding buying war takes place, sale prices are often in the 8-10x EBITA range.

    I doubt even a Vail vs Alterra bidding war could get to even half of that 250 million figure mentioned

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  3. #1303
    thetrailboss's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drjeff View Post
    Apparently last year their EBITA was about 10 million. Historically, unless some major over bidding buying war takes place, sale prices are often in the 8-10x EBITA range.

    I doubt even a Vail vs Alterra bidding war could get to even half of that 250 million figure mentioned



    Sent from my Moto Z (2) using AlpineZone mobile app
    Perhaps the signal that the receiver meant to send was to the investors to set expectations and prepare them for losing a significant amount of their investment. Based upon what you said Id have a hard time seeing it being worth more than $100 million considering the condition it is in with the dated ski infrastructure. They can call it what they want but it is primarily a ski area.


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  4. #1304
    Quote Originally Posted by drjeff View Post
    last year their EBITA was about 10 million.
    Let's put it this way.

    Vail paid 15x EBITDA for Whistler/Blackcomb, which I would guess was one of the priciest acquisitions in ski industry history. That said, Whister/Blackcomb is one of the premier ski properties in all of North America, so although Vail "overpaid", they clearly wanted it.

    Were Vail to overpay in the same valuation range of 15x earnings, that gets you about $150M, still $100M short of the $250M bogey. And Jay Peak aint no' Whistler/Blackcomb.

    As I said before, that's not happening.
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  5. #1305
    Quote Originally Posted by thetrailboss View Post
    Perhaps the signal that the receiver meant to send was to the investors to set expectations and prepare them for losing a significant amount of their investment. Based upon what you said Id have a hard time seeing it being worth more than $100 million considering the condition it is in with the dated ski infrastructure. They can call it what they want but it is primarily a ski area.


    Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone
    Not totally sure of the distinction of Jay being primarily a ski area.... I have a few non skier friends, who are BIG hockey families, and as long as they have a kid playing hockey between about age 8 and age 16 or 17, they're always going up to Jay at least twice a year, and often not in prime ski season, for hockey tournaments, and also rave about the waterpark. The ice rink + waterpark combo is a BIG year round draw for the resort as well.... If it was just the golf course, well, that's not a major draw. The ice rink + waterpark is a big draw given the passionate Northeast and Canadian hockey population

    Sent from my Moto Z (2) using AlpineZone mobile app
    '07--08 season: 51 Days, '08-'09 season: 55 Days, '09-'10 season: 41 Days, '10-'11 season: 49 days, '11-'12 season: 40 Days '12-'13 season: 57 days, '13-'14 season, 60 days '14-'15 season 60 days, '15-'16 season 52 days, '16-'17 season: 50 days, '17-'18 season 52 days, '18-'19 season 45 days '07-'19 seasons: 612 Days

    '19 - '20 season:

    November: 16.17,23,29,30 (Mount Snow)
    December: 1,7,14,15 (Mount Snow)

  6. #1306
    Quote Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
    Let's put it this way.

    Vail paid 15x EBITDA for Whistler/Blackcomb, which I would guess was one of the priciest acquisitions in ski industry history. That said, Whister/Blackcomb is one of the premier ski properties in all of North America, so although Vail "overpaid", they clearly wanted it.

    Were Vail to overpay in the same valuation range of 15x earnings, that gets you about $150M, still $100M short of the $250M bogey. And Jay Peak aint no' Whistler/Blackcomb.

    As I said before, that's not happening.
    Well Q management was notable for being bad, aside from the fraud. Goldberg is better but if I remember correctly he is a lawyer who lives in Florida, so still probably not the best person to run your ski area. To someone who knows the industry well this might be an relatively easy ski area to make more profitable.

  7. #1307
    Quote Originally Posted by VTKilarney View Post

    This should be a sobering wake-up call to the people that excused Quiros and Stenger because things got built. This is a very high probability that there are going to be some real victims here.
    Wake up call? There was never a chance all the investors were getting paid back. The hole in the ground ANC Bio was exhibit A of that.

    Quote Originally Posted by benski View Post
    Well Q management was notable for being bad, aside from the fraud. Goldberg is better but if I remember correctly he is a lawyer who lives in Florida, so still probably not the best person to run your ski area. To someone who knows the industry well this might be an relatively easy ski area to make more profitable.
    Goldberg is settling creditor claims, suing brokerage firms, finishing the viable projects and providing a legal context to keep the lights on. Stenger and Wright are still there running the place. I'm expecting the market to base the purchase price primarily on recent performance with a close eye on infrastructure. The ice rink, golf course, and hockey rink just add to the complete earnings picture. It's about value. It has to be, because you don't have location.

    If I was looking at running the place I'd be a little concerned about what I'm going to call the "Atlantic City Effect". If anyone builds a waterpark closer to NYC or Montreal, Jay will suffer. The Jay Cloud is the primary product up there.

  8. #1308
    fbrissette's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
    Let's put it this way.

    Vail paid 15x EBITDA for Whistler/Blackcomb, which I would guess was one of the priciest acquisitions in ski industry history. That said, Whister/Blackcomb is one of the premier ski properties in all of North America, so although Vail "overpaid", they clearly wanted it.

    Were Vail to overpay in the same valuation range of 15x earnings, that gets you about $150M, still $100M short of the $250M bogey. And Jay Peak aint no' Whistler/Blackcomb.

    As I said before, that's not happening.

    The number that is being tossed around (including by Goldberg himself) is that they expect Jay Peak to go for around 80-100 millions. The remaining investors should therefore expect to get back 30 cents on the dollar.

  9. #1309

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    I'll check and see if there is a For Sale sign on route 242 tomorrow.
    Ski it like you stole it!

  10. #1310
    There are several indoor waterparks that are closer to New York. But you make a good point about Montreal. For some reason, the indoor waterpark phenomenon has not caught on in Quebec.

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