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Lake Effect Machine to crank up?

St. Bear

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"@markellinwood

Just looking at lake-effect snow on the GFS Parallel...maxing out the scale on the Tug Hill now through Friday night. http://t.co/tkdkLkJoqp"

Anyone going to get some? Cornhead?
 

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Cornhead

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Brand new Blizzaks on the Rex, all tuned up and ready to roll. Spring conditions at K were great, a November powder day at Snow Ridge would be even better. We'll see if they receive enough to open, fingers crossed.

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Cornhead

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This could be good,
957 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS, OSWEGO, JEFFERSON, AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING, EARLY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS, SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING ONE TO TWO FEET OR
MORE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS

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St. Bear

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B2mNPM5CAAAJ2Uo.jpg:large
 

Cornhead

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Upgraded to a Lake Effect Snow Warning
Event:Lake Effect Snow Warning
Alert:...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST MONDAY...

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO
3 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. VERY HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY FROM THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TUG HILL REGION TO WATERTOWN AND FORT DRUM.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATING AN INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT
AND 3 TO 5 INCHES MONDAY IN THE GENERAL SNOW AND SLEET. LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES IN THE GENERAL
SNOW LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NEAR ZERO AT TIMES LATER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* IMPACTS...THE GENERAL SNOWFALL WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED AND
SLIPPERY ROADS. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE VERY
SLIPPERY AND SLOW. INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN VERY
DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES. SOME ROADS MAY BECOME NEARLY
IMPASSABLE.
Instructions:IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES AND WATER HEATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG BUFWX
Target Area:Jefferson
Lewis
Oswego

LES from Ontario can reach as far as WF, or farther. Not expected to in this event. Here's a TR from Famous Internet Skiers of a LES event that dumped on MRG in Dec 09, day before opening. http://www.famousinternetskiers.com...-iii-the-most-unreliable-great-snow-on-earth/
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Cornhead

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Road trip!

I predict a midweek "illness", contingent on Snow Ridge opening. I've gotta get some true powder skis, be worth it for my trips to Snow Ridge if nothing else. A foot is a dusting for SR, wonder if I'll get stuck this year?

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Warp Daddy

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had snowovernite here along theSt Lawrence , still snowing LES expected later today, tonite , SR , Dry Hill , MaCauley ,Woods Valley all inthe LES Bullseye
 

Cornhead

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had snowovernite here along theSt Lawrence , still snowing LES expected later today, tonite , SR , Dry Hill , MaCauley ,Woods Valley all inthe LES Bullseye

I wonder if Snow Ridge is ready to open if they do get snow? They're advertising for employment on their website. Maybe it's time to scratch McCauley off my to ski list...if they open.

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billski

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'Extreme and dangerous' lake effect snow storm to slam Tug Hill, - 3 FEET

Watertown, N.Y. -- A "dangerous" early season lake effect snow storm will pound Tug Hill for several days beginning tonight, meteorologists say.
"The first lake effect snow storm of the season will be extreme, with blizzard conditions possible across parts of western and northern New York," said Finger Lakes Weather meteorologist Drew Montreuil. "Travel will become impossible along parts of I-90 and I-81."


Montreiul calls the storm "extreme and dangerous."
Snow could fall at a rate of 5 inches per hour, said Channel 9 meteorologist Dave Eichorn.

View full sizeSome parts of Tug Hill could get more than 2 feet of snow, according to the National Weather Service.

National Weather Service

Two to 3 feet of snow could fall in the most persistent lake effect bands tonight through Wednesday, the National Weather Service said.

source: http://www.syracuse.com/news/index....now_blizzard_lake_ontario.html#incart_m-rpt-2
 

Puck it

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The severe cold just now entering the northeast U.S. is forecast to cause intense lake effect snow bands to form over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario late tonight through tomorrow night.
Areas impacted will be at the eastern ends of those lakes, mainly over upstate New York between Watertown and Oswego to the lee of Lake Ontario, and mainly south of Buffalo at the east end of Lake Erie.
The latest hi-res model forecast shows the areas of the heaviest snow accumulations, approaching 4 feet by Wednesday (click image for full size):

Total snow accumulations forecast by Wednesday evening, Nov. 19, 2014 (graphic courtesy of Weatherbell.com).

These forecast model calculations assume a 10:1 snow:water ratio, but lake effect snow is usually fluffier, leading to deeper snow. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see totals in excess of 4 feet by Wednesday.
Early winter lake effect snowstorms tend to be the heaviest, because the Great Lakes have not had time to cool off yet, and it is the relatively warmer water evaporating into the cold air that causes lake effect snow bands to form.
 

billski

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Lake effect storms skcus because they are usually accompanied by strong winds which create windslab drifts which aren't good for much other than dogsledding and kite skiing.
 
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