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Feb 5-6 2015 weather threat

billski

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Wx wonks see signs of an active system coming through Thursday and Friday. Time for a thread.
It's almost getting unnecessary to track these things. Good riddance January! Go for it.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
357 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LARGE AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AMERICAN
MODELS HAVE SIDED WITH THE GFS RESULTING IN A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP
ALONG AS WELL AS BEHIND THE FRONT IN MORE OF AN ANA-FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE EC AND UKMET HOWEVER SHOW A MIDWEST LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF NANTUCKET DEEPENING OUT INTO THE MARITIMES.
REGARDLESS BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOW PRECIP MOVING IN DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HOW IT FORMS AND THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT
AM CONCERN THAT THE EC ENSEMBLES SHOW GOOD SUPPORT IN A COASTAL
REDEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS BUT DID
NOT BUMP UP TO LIKELY DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING. HOPEFULLY
GUIDANCE COMES IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE MORE
SNOW...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ALSO ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL ADV
FOR THE COLD SURGE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT/SYSTEM.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK CLIPPER/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY SPOUT OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM COULD SEE REINFORCING COLD AIR SURGE INTO THE REGION.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
 

drjeff

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of biblical proportions.... :snow:

I've gone from bare ground to almost 40" having fallen in the last week at my house in CT! I've got a settled snow pack of about 2 feet lining my driveway now. My 11yr old is looking at her 4th snow day tomorrow out of her last 7 days of school and hasn't had a "normal" length school day since January 23rd!! This is quite a stretch of winter weather we're having!!
 

abc

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Mar 2, 2008
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And I'm not getting as much work done as I should. I have some deadlines looming that could really cramp my style later in the month whe I got plans for going away.

(though I can work from home, I'm not quite as efficient. So I have to work longer hours to make up for it)
 
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0z will be telling. If the Euro is onto something, NNE gets its turn and in SNE roofs collapse due to heavy rain and mix turning the monster pack into concrete.
 

billski

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0z will be telling. If the Euro is onto something, NNE gets its turn and in SNE roofs collapse due to heavy rain and mix turning the monster pack into concrete.
What's amazing is how much weight roofs (that conform to modern building code) can actually hold. It's only when the rains come and it turns into a giant sponge that the issues arise. So I pray for sustained cold weather so I can ski and not be outside with a snow rake and shovel.
 

billski

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Take a look at this. Ignore the precip forecasts (as he focuses mostly on Northern VT) and just look at the weather trends. Bam. Bam. Bam. About twice a week we are likely to get hit. The Thursday-Friday thing looks real, and there's a good chance for another late next weekend. He sequences the Euro model. It's impressive to watch.

 

billski

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

StormTotalSnowRange.png
 

catsup948

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Dec 6, 2007
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Shelburne Falls, MA
Models aren't coming north on a big coastal for Thursday night. Canadian is out to sea. If Euro still likes the idea it's very much on its own.
 

dlague

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Nov 7, 2012
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Reports are saying that this clipper maybe starved of moisture and may result in something around the 3-6 inch range or less?
 
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