Feb 22-23rd - Dump a Day Club

billski said:

Lionel @ FIS posits.
White Mts. win,finally.

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You posted the wrong storm in your own thread.

Well the Euro brings rain now too, so it's universal.

For folks in New England that have a lot of snow on your roofs, you may want to consider getting some of it off before Sunday. Lots of snow + rain = recipe for a collapsed roof. Not to mention, the temperature is going to crash after this storm departs = frozen h2o embedded into that snow. I think by sometime next week there are going to be "collapsed roof" photos floating around Facebook.

Next week? Collapsed roofs are already an issue. There's 700 people homeless in Portsmouth, NH right now due to roof failure at an apartment complex.

I have another 5ft extentsion coming for my roof rake.

I'm staying hopeful. Looks like Vermont is going to get 8 - 18" over the next couple days depending on area and elevation.. if nothing else that should serve as a nice buffer. Most mountains will probably make out OK Sunday.

No quiero el scorchio!

I just may hit Jay Peak next week. Hopefully they won't get hit with ra*n.

Is anyone looking at the storm tonight-Friday? NOAA predicting good snow for Maine and decent snow for the Whites. Obviously if they get hit Sunday with ra*n it's not as big of a deal but this weekend looks pretty good.

Any chance of the models being wrong at this stage?

I have looked at this a little closer and it appears as though some r&*n will be inevitable on Sunday. However, northern areas will accumulate snow initially and then get smaller amounts of the watery stuff. Southern areas in NH and VT will get a little snow and switch over sooner with MA and CT being all r word. Yet my local news station is still predicting Snow.

BenedictGomez said:

Well the Euro brings rain now too, so it's universal.

For folks in New England that have a lot of snow on your roofs, you may want to consider getting some of it off before Sunday. Lots of snow + rain = recipe for a collapsed roof. Not to mention, the temperature is going to crash after this storm departs = frozen h2o embedded into that snow. I think by sometime next week there are going to be "collapsed roof" photos floating around Facebook.

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Are snow loads an issue if the roof has some pitch? I have a few areas with a lot of snow but all of the roofs have decent pitch (9/12).

VTKilarney said:

I just may hit Jay Peak next week. Hopefully they won't get hit with ra*n.

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You're lucky you live up there to take advantage of the great conditions midweek. Those of us who can only make it to n.VT on weekends have had some back weekend luck lately, and it may continue next weekend.

Rowsdower said:

Any chance of the models being wrong at this stage?

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All of them?

This thing is still light years away. That's why it's still in a speculation phase.
Could warrant pre-positioning up at the mountain, due to a high probability of ice in so. ne.


FOR BOSTON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
417 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING...A LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION
EVENT IS LIKELY...BUT THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. WINTRY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LIKELY
OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SNOW LIKELY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND
POSSIBLY EVEN CHANGING TO RAIN FOR A TIME. CLOSER TO THE
COAST...SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN. HOWEVER...A SHIFT IN THE
TRACK OF THE STORM COULD RESULT IN EITHER MORE SNOW OR MORE RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OF WATER IN ONE FORM OR
ANOTHER BEING DEPOSITED. THIS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY EXACERBATE ROOF
LOADING CONCERNS.

SOUTHERN VT
A STORM OVER THE WEEKEND MIGHT BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

NORTHERN VT
AS OF 346 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING INTO THE WEEKEND CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO GROW THAT WE`LL SEE OUR FIRST DECENT WIDESPREAD STORM
IN QUITE SOME TIME (OVER 2 WEEKS NOW), BUT DETAILS ARE STILL A
LITTLE FUZZY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND VERTICAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF STILL AT ODDS WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A TRACK UP THROUGH THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT FARTHER EAST JUST ABOUT
RIGHT THROUGH THE BTV CWA. BOTH SOLUTIONS OFFER SURFACE TEMPS
WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW, I CONTINUE TO
LEAN TOWARDS THE COLDER GFS WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT

BenedictGomez said:

You posted the wrong storm in your own thread.

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LOL, I actually noted that before I posted, but I didn't feel like making a new thread (after you my friend!). So Sat-Sunday could be nice.

BenedictGomez said:

You're lucky you live up there to take advantage of the great conditions midweek. Those of us who can only make it to n.VT on weekends have had some back weekend luck lately, and it may continue next weekend.

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Yeah, except work has been so busy that it's been hard to sneak away on weekdays. But I've booked some time off next week. I'm due for some r&r!


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Ride the GFS and hope for wet snow in the mountains, decent front end thump here and a quick warm-up.

Big turn around on the models last night. Colder, weaker, not a bad thing.

catsup948 said:

Big turn around on the models last night. Colder, weaker, not a bad thing.

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Anything better than what it was showing.


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Shows the wisdom of the "4-day-rule".

abc said:

Shows the wisdom of the "4-day-rule".

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I think it was newsworthy whether it was rain or snow. But it definitely shows you that things can, and do, change.

abc said:

Shows the wisdom of the "4-day-rule".

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You bet. I mostly use the 2-day rule because I mostly day trip and will chase storms.