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2015/16 Elnino....?

snoseek

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I recall some not so great elnino winters back east.
 

snoseek

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I also remember sugar loaf getting bombed all year during one of them. It will show somewhere at some point haha.

Maybe, just fucking maybe this one time it can snow just a little bit in California?
 

catsup948

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Super El Nino winter may not be good for anyone on the east coast. A strong el Nino would likely be great for northern New England, elevation plus lots of precipitation. Super el Nino could be temps that are too warm to support snow even at higher elevations and latitudes.
 

skiberg

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Don't mean to disappoint anyone, but there really is no scientifically demonstrated correlation between El Nino and more snow at ANY ski are in the country.
 

snoseek

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Don't mean to disappoint anyone, but there really is no scientifically demonstrated correlation between El Nino and more snow at ANY ski are in the country.
Taos, wolf creek, az skibowl and California all do well on a strong elnino. Other areas like pnw dread it. Colorado and Utah are usually more neutral. I'm not sure if it overall effects new england so much either.

But you see there's still that blob. The blob has really douched up the west for the past 4 years....I've lived through that pos blob. No one really knows how thats gonna effect us. It needs to die already.....
 

BenedictGomez

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Don't mean to disappoint anyone, but there really is no scientifically demonstrated correlation between El Nino and more snow at ANY ski are in the country.

I'd have to agree. In the last 65 years of data, there are only 2 other examples of "Super El Nino" events, 1982 & 1997. So I ran the data for those years for the MM snow stake and you get this:

gendateplot.php3


One excellent snow year and one horrendous snow year.

Granted, I'd caution drawing conclusions from N=2 versus a 4.5B year old planet, but it's all we've got, and it's about as far from a trend as you could possibly get. FWIW, the third strongest El Nino year was also a snow-stinker.
 

Tin

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The 97-98 year was quite impressive, the fast melt at the end too. I loooked through some Farmer's Almanac stuff and Stowe had multiple days in January-Feb 1983 in the 50s.
 

fbrissette

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Don't mean to disappoint anyone, but there really is no scientifically demonstrated correlation between El Nino and more snow at ANY ski are in the country.

There is a significant statistical correlation between ENSO and precipitation/temperature for several regions out west, but none for the north-east of the United States. But even in the West, ENSO only controls a relatively small portion of the variance linked to precip and temperature. During the warm phase, the likelihood of warmer than average winter temperatures is very high for most of the West. Still, other components of climate natural variability have a significant contribution.
 

dlague

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Don't mean to disappoint anyone, but there really is no scientifically demonstrated correlation between El Nino and more snow at ANY ski are in the country.

Well everything suggests that the polar vortex get pushed further east bringing for cold to the northeast. Storm tracks are further south and more tropical. If those two come together which at best would be somewhere along the east northeast theoretically. However things have to be lined up perfectly which does not always happen as depicted below.

ENSO_USimpacts_precip_610.jpg
 
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