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Winter Forecast 2015-2016

JDMRoma

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Joined
Jan 20, 2013
Messages
1,253
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Location
Hudson NH
Like Alex. Hope he gets to ride.

Wonder if he needs help ?
We could volunteer !

Yes hope he can get some time on the snow. We can live vicariously through his adventures !


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slatham

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Sep 17, 2012
Messages
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Location
LI/Bromley
Re: accuweather - Paul has really been leaning on the CFS model - and persistence - but he's been right. Weatherbell still believes a pattern change will slowly evolve and is using the Canadian, JMA and their analogs to support the argument. The interesting thing is they're not too different - Weatherbell has warmer than usual December for instance, but does come in colder in Jan. They both think the core of the winter is Feb.

But we must all keep one very important fact in mind - it can snow a TON with average temps ABOVE normal! But we do we need a bit of a pattern change where the unusually high heights over the NE and into Eastern Canada move Northwest toward west shore of Hudson Bay and allow the cold air to filter down while lower heights and storms can move east and up the coast. This is what some of the models are showing, but the CFS is not one of them. So we'll have to see which solution the models gravitate toward over the next couple of weeks. But there is way more than a glimmer of hope for a good winter, however frustrating things are as of today.
 

Tin

Active member
Joined
Oct 14, 2009
Messages
2,996
Points
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Location
ZooMass Slamherst
Looking good for the mountains of NH for base building.

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catsup948

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Dec 6, 2007
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Location
Shelburne Falls, MA
Looks very tranquil for the northeast until then. Days and days of nice sunshine and mild temps. It likely will be cold enough at night to make snow though.
 

dlague

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Nov 7, 2012
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CS, Colorado
That was interesting to listen too! Surprised no one is biting on what he talks about at the end.


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Puck it

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Joined
Oct 26, 2006
Messages
9,680
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Location
Franconia, NH
That was interesting to listen too! Surprised no one is biting on what he talks about at the end.


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99% of the scientific community agrees.



they just don't tell what they agree one!
 

dlague

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Nov 7, 2012
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Location
CS, Colorado
It looks like we have another week and a half of this. At least it is cold enough by night in the northern parts of New England!
 

JDMRoma

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Jan 20, 2013
Messages
1,253
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Location
Hudson NH
May have to burn a few more K 2 Fer s next weekend !


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billski

Active member
Joined
Feb 22, 2005
Messages
16,207
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Location
North Reading, Mass.
Website
ski.iabsi.com
I don't give a crap about the weather until January 1st. December is always one of those months where you win big or lose big. I'm moving my modus operundi to a start late end late regimen. Ski through the last day. Go for deep. Milk the woods at Jay until the end.
Remember that year when December was big and January sucked? I'll take the opposite. I have so many family and work commitments in December that I miss out every year.
 

Puck it

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Oct 26, 2006
Messages
9,680
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Location
Franconia, NH
I don't give a crap about the weather until January 1st. December is always one of those months where you win big or lose big. I'm moving my modus operundi to a start late end late regimen. Ski through the last day. Go for deep. Milk the woods at Jay until the end.
Remember that year when December was big and January sucked? I'll take the opposite. I have so many family and work commitments in December that I miss out every year.
We don't care about your committments, some of us want to ski from Late Oct. to Mid May.
 

VTKilarney

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Feb 5, 2014
Messages
5,552
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Location
VT NEK
I don't give a crap about the weather until January 1st. December is always one of those months where you win big or lose big. I'm moving my modus operundi to a start late end late regimen. Ski through the last day. Go for deep. Milk the woods at Jay until the end.
Remember that year when December was big and January sucked? I'll take the opposite. I have so many family and work commitments in December that I miss out every year.
While I generally agree with this statement, my biggest concern is that if we don't get decent natural snowfall, the resorts have lost a month of snowmaking weather.
 

slatham

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Sep 17, 2012
Messages
2,400
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Location
LI/Bromley
Be mindful of that NOAA graphic. That is simply the probability of it being above/below normal. Nothing about magnitude. That said the models that spit out an actual forecast are showing consistent warmth for the next week+. Maybe we get a step down to cooler temps later in the month but I've seen nothing that even hints at normal, much less below normal. Now of course it can snow like mad and be above normal!:daffy:
 
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