Winter Forecast 2015-2016

yeggous · Dec 10, 2015

skiberg said:
I really have no idea what the hell I am doing when it comes to weather forecasting. I just like to see what the majority of forecasters are saying looks "most likely". They have been suggesting a cool down towards the end of the month for some time and as we near it they are refining consistent forecasts, so it sounds like we have a reasonable shot of this coming to fruition.

A cool down in late December? You can set your calendar to it! It's called winter.

As far as next week goes, the west get cool and we might get a bit less blow torch. No cold to be found.

180 · Dec 10, 2015

Possible nor easter according to weatherbell on the 20th

catsup948 · Dec 10, 2015

It only takes one storm to flip December around. It's not a month I ever expect much out of.

ss20 · Dec 10, 2015

I have a weekend at Mount Snow booked over the 19th and 20th. Get your powder skis ready for the 2ft coming December 21st :spin:

andrec10 · Dec 10, 2015

ss20 said:
I have a weekend at Mount Snow booked over the 19th and 20th. Get your powder skis ready for the 2ft coming December 21st

Whatever it takes! Do I need to put my Patio furniture back out?

Boston Bulldog · Dec 10, 2015

Here's my take:

The pattern is not "flipping" in around 10 days per-se but the ridiculous ridge which was creating the blowtorch will begin to break down. I am not expecting the PNA and the rest of the Pacific to flip to a favorable spot until January, but as we all know: a marginal atmosphere could go either way. Right now it is at the worst possible scenario (Pig ridge flushing warm heights into the northeast) and for the future it's looking like it may edge on the positive side (Zonal flow of lukewarm pacific air allowing for moisture and the occasional cold shot. Time this perfectly and we know what happens). Just don't expect any longterm cold until January. We need a full shakeup to do that, not just some transient changes.

Boston Bulldog · Dec 10, 2015

Best case scenario right here. We need to time those shortwaves of energy just right to avoid a 40*F rainer with rotting, stale pacific air.

skiberg · Dec 10, 2015

When you say January will get cold is that because of a potential weather pattern change or just because that's what happens in January?

Boston Bulldog · Dec 10, 2015

skiberg said:
When you say January will get cold is that because of a potential weather pattern change or just because that's what happens in January?

Potential major pattern change. Strong El Nino's typically start off warm in December and have a major pattern change for cold in January. There are hints at this change already, but 3+ weeks out is a crapshoot at this point.

catsup948 · Dec 11, 2015

skiberg said:
Looks like we have a major La Niña coming. I think La Niña years are like El Niño years, in that they are unpredictable and prone to periods of warmth and cold. In other words I think they are inconsistent as well, but we really need a pro to speak to this.

La Nina sometimes follows big El Nino. I know little about it, but doing a little research I'm intrigued. Over the last ten years 2007-08 and 2010-11 were la Nina winters. Both were very good snowfall winters with 07-08 being noteworthy for northern New England and January 2011 being pretty epic for many. Another note is that those two la Nina winters followed after strong El Nino winters. 2006-2007, 09-10 both had decent 2nd halfs with some big storms, Valentine's 07, St Pattys 07 and the infamous Snowicane in 2010.

deadheadskier · Dec 11, 2015

At this point, I'm just hoping for a repeat of 07'. Fall 06 was the worst start to a season I can recall (though this one is closing in fast), but Spring 07 was the best I can remember hands down. Large holiday storms through Patriots day and colder than normal temps made for many days in April where it was skiing like February.

ScottySkis · Dec 11, 2015

http://www.ilsnow.com/2015/12/10/winter-missing/

Some some Mary or take some anti depressants before reading above.

yeggous · Dec 11, 2015

I have good news for anyone. There continues to be intermittent support for a big inland snow next weekend if everything aligns just right. But it would be short lived good news.

I am starting to wonder what places like Burke and Attitash are going to do. If they can't open yet I don't see them doing so for next weekend. Given that next weekend starts the Christmas period, this is going to hurt.

Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone mobile app

Tin · Dec 11, 2015

yeggous · Dec 11, 2015

Tin said:

Yes, the 06Z run brings it. A day or two ago a couple consecutive runs were similiar. Don't get caught up on this yet. The fact that this is in and out a week in advance just says there is a chance.

This all depends on how things phase up. It's unlikely but possible.

Tin · Dec 11, 2015

We need something to hope for. Those amounts are unlikely but anything would help the smaller ski areas for the holiday week.

catsup948 · Dec 11, 2015

deadheadskier said:
At this point, I'm just hoping for a repeat of 07'. Fall 06 was the worst start to a season I can recall (though this one is closing in fast), but Spring 07 was the best I can remember hands down. Large holiday storms through Patriots day and colder than normal temps made for many days in April where it was skiing like February.

That was an epic run for much of New England. We had snow on the ground down here well into April.

ss20 · Dec 11, 2015

Tin said:

Reminds me of that guy on here who spent a week in northeast Canada skiing and we were all shocked at some of the terrain up there. That's where the jackpot is, with this storm.

The trip report is somewhere in the March of last year reports.

BenedictGomez · Dec 11, 2015

At this point, I'll be thrilled if the woods are open the last week of January.

andrec10 · Dec 11, 2015

BenedictGomez said:
At this point, I'll be thrilled if the woods are open the last week of January.

Heck, at this point I would be happy with normal snowmaking weather!

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