Potential Storm: 1/16

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  1. #1

    Potential Storm: 1/16

    There has been chatter about this in the other thread, but now it appears that this threat is viable enough for it's own thread.



    This is a tricky system. This transition pattern seems to have many cooks in the kitchen but one very poor chef. Lots of disturbances but a poor set up to get snow. The real PNA pattern is still establishing itself and is sloppy for now. In fact, we are very lucky that this storm is not going to be tracking up the Hudson River or even Buffalo. A -NAO and 50/50 block from today's storm is allowing the system to spawn a secondary coastal low and save us from an inland runner/last weekend redux.

    Pretty much a solid Miller B look right now if we take the current models verbatim.

    Miller B.jpg

    The one issue is that the primary low tracking towards the Great lakes could take a while to die off. The later it takes to do this, the higher chance of rain coming into ski country. A few days ago the models showed this but have trended towards a more snowy solution.

    In all, could be an interesting storm for both New England this Saturday and the Patriots game! Go Pats! BG has posted a projection map in the other thread.
    Last edited by Boston Bulldog; Jan 12, 2016 at 9:05 PM.
    Days on the Snow:

    Pre 2011:~20 per year
    2011-2012: 19
    2012-2013: 34
    2013-2014: 25
    2014-2015: 23
    2015-2015: 17

  2. #2
    Tin's Avatar
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    Trending warmer each GFS run today.

    My couch might pull out but I send it.

  3. #3

    Potential Storm: 1/16

    Quote Originally Posted by Tin View Post
    Trending warmer each GFS run today.

    Yeah 0z GFS was warm but I don't recall the rest being warmer. Ride the EURO for now.

    You can see the Monday shortwave down by the gulf too.
    Days on the Snow:

    Pre 2011:~20 per year
    2011-2012: 19
    2012-2013: 34
    2013-2014: 25
    2014-2015: 23
    2015-2015: 17

  4. #4
    Tin's Avatar
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    Paste bomb for now. It will get a base down in the woods.
    Last edited by Tin; Jan 13, 2016 at 7:31 AM.
    My couch might pull out but I send it.

  5. #5
    Some models now saying a miss out to sea. Maybe a little from the inland low but temps could be a challenge. Not buying any forecast that is more than 48 hours.........
    2017/18 = 37
    2016/17 = 31
    2015/16 = Depressing
    2014/15 = 28
    2013/14 = 27

  6. #6
    Tin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by slatham View Post
    Some models now saying a miss out to sea. Maybe a little from the inland low but temps could be a challenge. Not buying any forecast that is more than 48 hours.........
    Do you mean the follow up is OTS? The Saturday deal moving so quickly could help for the follow up.

    My couch might pull out but I send it.

  7. #7
    Tin's Avatar
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    And it appears to help. BIG TIME. Still too far out though.
    My couch might pull out but I send it.

  8. #8
    If the mountains get 4 or 5 inches out of this I'll be happy. The important thing is that the pattern has clearly changed, and shots on goal for something decent should be coming (FINALLY) over the next few weeks.
    President - Bicknell's Thrush Extermination Solutions (BTES), LLC



  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
    shots on goal
    Love this analogy.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
    shots on goal
    Quote Originally Posted by Harvey View Post
    Love this analogy.
    This weekend:

    2019-2020 0 days and holding...
    "Skiing is the closest you'll get to flying without leaving the ground." -snowmonster

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