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Potential Storm: 1/16

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There has been chatter about this in the other thread, but now it appears that this threat is viable enough for it's own thread.

This is a tricky system. This transition pattern seems to have many cooks in the kitchen but one very poor chef. Lots of disturbances but a poor set up to get snow. The real PNA pattern is still establishing itself and is sloppy for now. In fact, we are very lucky that this storm is not going to be tracking up the Hudson River or even Buffalo. A -NAO and 50/50 block from today's storm is allowing the system to spawn a secondary coastal low and save us from an inland runner/last weekend redux.:puke:

Pretty much a solid Miller B look right now if we take the current models verbatim.

Miller B.jpg

The one issue is that the primary low tracking towards the Great lakes could take a while to die off. The later it takes to do this, the higher chance of rain coming into ski country. A few days ago the models showed this but have trended towards a more snowy solution.

In all, could be an interesting storm for both New England this Saturday and the Patriots game! Go Pats! BG has posted a projection map in the other thread.
 
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Tin

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Trending warmer each GFS run today.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png
 

slatham

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Some models now saying a miss out to sea. Maybe a little from the inland low but temps could be a challenge. Not buying any forecast that is more than 48 hours.........
 

Tin

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Some models now saying a miss out to sea. Maybe a little from the inland low but temps could be a challenge. Not buying any forecast that is more than 48 hours.........

Do you mean the follow up is OTS? The Saturday deal moving so quickly could help for the follow up.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png
 

BenedictGomez

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If the mountains get 4 or 5 inches out of this I'll be happy. The important thing is that the pattern has clearly changed, and shots on goal for something decent should be coming (FINALLY) over the next few weeks.
 
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Trend has been OTS, BUT the wave has not even come on shore yet. Once it does tomorrow, the model run which follows will be very important. It could stay meh or come roaring back with a vengeance. Once we get a full sampling on this thing, we will know the full story.
 

dlague

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Local news reported mix will be close to the border in southern NH and some snow north but nothing significant.


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drjeff

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I don't see Monday panning out to anything significant.

The fact I have a 6AM flight Monday AM out to Utah significantly increases the chances that the Sunday Night/Monday AM event will suddenly explode and mess up my travel plans! ;)
 
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