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2/15-2/18. A New Hope or We are Screwed.

Tin

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NAM has gone east. Still not good for NH. That model has been great with track this winter, just too wet. Not over the top with this one though.

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BenedictGomez

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12z GFS came about 20 miles NW, but remarkably similar to 06z.

Burke still winner (17"), most of VT does well, Gore & Whiteface get snow but less than VT, bad run for most everyone else, though maybe the elevation in NH will save the day and it could be good for them, tough to say.
 

BenedictGomez

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12z Canuck gets worse. Though ADK and n.VT remain in the clear.

Hmmm..... This must be a trainwreck to forecast, which IMO is why professional mets are pretty much mum on this. LOL
 

catsup948

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12z Canuck gets worse. Though ADK and n.VT remain in the clear.

Hmmm..... This must be a trainwreck to forecast, which IMO is why professional mets are pretty much mum on this. LOL

Yeah with the international models still hammering that eastern New York track. Very hard to make a call.
 

catsup948

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Euro! Still amped up and going through central New York. What a nightmare of a forecast. Will the Euro fail again? Or will it make a come back as the king of winter storm modeling?
 

fcksummer

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The "accumulated snowfall map" moniker is a terrible name, because it gives people the false impression that that's actually what it means. It doesn't. A better name would be "precipitation when it's sortof close to or below 32 degrees map".

You cant just look at a map of modeled snow output and think that's how much snow you'll get, you have to understand what's going on throughout the entire air column and how it moves during the event.
So considering the air column, how much snow will we get in central NH?
 

BenedictGomez

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Euro! Still amped up and going through central New York. What a nightmare of a forecast. Will the Euro fail again? Or will it make a come back as the king of winter storm modeling?

I hate to say this, but I think the Euro/Ukie go east and the GFS/CAD/NAM go west, a "split the difference" sort of a thing. Might be good for ADK & n.VT but not much else if that's the case.
 

catsup948

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I hate to say this, but I think the Euro/Ukie go east and the GFS/CAD/NAM go west, a "split the difference" sort of a thing. Might be good for ADK & n.VT but not much else if that's the case.

Maybe. There is no evidence to say this will happen. You could be right I suppose. I'd rather you be right than the Euro verify.
 

BenedictGomez

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Well, the 18z GFS is..... horrendous.

Looks like my worries might be coming true. Hopefully it shifts back. :(
 

BenedictGomez

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Elk? Maybe?

Hah. Good call! I always forget Elk is sortof tucked into its' own unique little geography.

Elk is right on the fault line of the 12z Canuck, so they get about.... I'd guess 15" maybe. Though the 00z Canuck is running as we speak, so we'll have better data in about 20 minutes.
 

BenedictGomez

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00z GFS is in.

If this or the Euro verifies, t's over. Nobody listens to techno.

Book a trip to Utah or Colorado or Alberta.

Signing off.................

Michaelscottfacepalm1.gif
 

mriceyman

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00z GFS is in.

If this or the Euro verifies, t's over. Nobody listens to techno.

Book a trip to Utah or Colorado or Alberta.

Signing off.................

Michaelscottfacepalm1.gif

Couldnt have trended any worse. Bad luck year .. Bunch of storms around but none will hit for ski country


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