2/15-2/18. A New Hope or We are Screwed. - Page 4

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  1. #31
    GFS comes WEST quite a bit (it's back on-shore). More snow and more cold deeper into ski country. More rain in the southern regions. Win/lose situation... win for big mountain skiing, lose for the local hills in the flatlands that rely on this week. Central VT and NH get a foot+, Southern VT on the fringe... the Catskills could do better than Sunday River.

    2018-2019 90 days and holding...
    Thunder Ridge: 12/1, 12/15, 12/23, 12/24, 12/26, 12/27, 12/29, 12/30, 12/31, 1/1, 1/5, 1/12, 1/13, 1/19, 1/20, 1/21, 1/25, 1/26, 1/27, 2/1, 2/2, 2/3, 2/8, 2/9, 2/10, 2/15, 2/16, 2/17, 2/18, 2/20, 2/22, 2/23, 2/24, 3/2, 3/3, 3/10, 3/16, 3/17
    Killington: 11/16, 12/7, 12/9, 12/13, 12/20, 1/8, 1/9, 1/14, 1/23, 2/13, 3/1, 3/8, 3/22, 3/23, 3/24, 3/29, 3/30, 4/7, 4/20, 4/21, 5/4, 5/5
    Sugarbush: 12/8, 1/3, 1/17, 1/18, 4/6, 4/19 Mount Snow: 10/27, 11/21, 12/12
    Sunday River: 3/11, 3/12, 3/13
    Magic: 11/30, 1/11, 3/9 Jay Peak: 12/18, 1/15 Smuggler's Notch: 12/17 Sunapee: 12/19 Mad River Glen: 1/2 Mohawk: 1/4 Okemo: 1/7, 4/5 Pico: 1/10 Burke: 1/16 Belleayre: 2/1 Catamount: 2/6 Jiminy Peak: 2/12 Berkshire East: 3/6 Wildcat: 3/14 Bretton Woods: 3/15
    "Skiing is the closest you'll get to flying without leaving the ground." -snowmonster

  2. #32

  3. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by ss20 View Post
    GFS comes WEST quite a bit (it's back on-shore). More snow and more cold deeper into ski country. More rain in the southern regions. Win/lose situation... win for big mountain skiing, lose for the local hills in the flatlands that rely on this week. Central VT and NH get a foot+, Southern VT on the fringe... the Catskills could do better than Sunday River.
    You're interpreting the model wrong.

    New Hampshire is an absolute pain train on that run. Absolute deluge of rain with very little snow. Southern Vermont almost as bad. Poconos and Berks are screwed too. Cats okay, but dancing on the fault line.
    President - Bicknell's Thrush Extermination Solutions (BTES), LLC



  4. #34
    00z Canuck isnt done running, but I can tell it's going to be similar to the 00z GFS, it came west too.

    Maine gets pain and despair, huge L goes right over the mountains.

    New Hampshire gets pounded with rain too.

    Around 9'ish hours of sleet/ice in Berks.

    Cats & Poconos amazingly somehow come out unscathed, but both right on the fault-line.

    Vermont does well with snow. ADK sees some snow, not too much.

    EDIT: Just for fun, the snowmaps are now out. Biggest winners would be Burke at about 20" and Plattekill and Magic at about 17". Of course, with this sort of storm, the way you get the modeled jackpot is by being very close to the modeled disaster. So......
    Last edited by BenedictGomez; Feb 12, 2016 at 11:19 PM.
    President - Bicknell's Thrush Extermination Solutions (BTES), LLC



  5. #35
    catsup948's Avatar
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    Hard to pin point this one. 0z GFS and Canadian were very similae in track and intensity. But 0z Euro is still west and the 6z GFS is weaker more east. This could still take a couple more days to figure out.
    Snow!

  6. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by mriceyman View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
    You're interpreting the model wrong.

    New Hampshire is an absolute pain train on that run. Absolute deluge of rain with very little snow. Southern Vermont almost as bad. Poconos and Berks are screwed too. Cats okay, but dancing on the fault line.
    mriceyman's map disagree's with you BG. Central NH and Central VT do great.
    2018-2019 90 days and holding...
    Thunder Ridge: 12/1, 12/15, 12/23, 12/24, 12/26, 12/27, 12/29, 12/30, 12/31, 1/1, 1/5, 1/12, 1/13, 1/19, 1/20, 1/21, 1/25, 1/26, 1/27, 2/1, 2/2, 2/3, 2/8, 2/9, 2/10, 2/15, 2/16, 2/17, 2/18, 2/20, 2/22, 2/23, 2/24, 3/2, 3/3, 3/10, 3/16, 3/17
    Killington: 11/16, 12/7, 12/9, 12/13, 12/20, 1/8, 1/9, 1/14, 1/23, 2/13, 3/1, 3/8, 3/22, 3/23, 3/24, 3/29, 3/30, 4/7, 4/20, 4/21, 5/4, 5/5
    Sugarbush: 12/8, 1/3, 1/17, 1/18, 4/6, 4/19 Mount Snow: 10/27, 11/21, 12/12
    Sunday River: 3/11, 3/12, 3/13
    Magic: 11/30, 1/11, 3/9 Jay Peak: 12/18, 1/15 Smuggler's Notch: 12/17 Sunapee: 12/19 Mad River Glen: 1/2 Mohawk: 1/4 Okemo: 1/7, 4/5 Pico: 1/10 Burke: 1/16 Belleayre: 2/1 Catamount: 2/6 Jiminy Peak: 2/12 Berkshire East: 3/6 Wildcat: 3/14 Bretton Woods: 3/15
    "Skiing is the closest you'll get to flying without leaving the ground." -snowmonster

  7. #37
    catsup948's Avatar
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    UKmet, meteofrance, euro and Japan models all west. American and Canadain models more east.
    Snow!

  8. #38
    Tin's Avatar
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    Freezing rain could be a serious issue in western/central parts CT the first half of this storm according to the GFS.

    NAM says southern VT/NH...
    Last edited by Tin; Feb 13, 2016 at 8:52 AM.
    My couch might pull out but I send it.

  9. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by ss20 View Post
    mriceyman's map disagree's with you BG.

    Central NH and Central VT do great
    .
    The "accumulated snowfall map" moniker is a terrible name, because it gives people the false impression that that's actually what it means. It doesn't. A better name would be "precipitation when it's sortof close to or below 32 degrees map".

    You cant just look at a map of modeled snow output and think that's how much snow you'll get, you have to understand what's going on throughout the entire air column and how it moves during the event.
    President - Bicknell's Thrush Extermination Solutions (BTES), LLC



  10. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by catsup948 View Post
    Hard to pin point this one. 0z GFS and Canadian were very similae in track and intensity. But 0z Euro is still west and the 6z GFS is weaker more east. This could still take a couple more days to figure out.
    Just looked at that, a supersoaker for the coastal areas, and much ado about nothing elsewhere. That seems odd, wonder if it's the off-run wonkiness showing up and 12z will be pretty different.

    And it appears the 00z Euro and 00z Ukie are still terrible.
    President - Bicknell's Thrush Extermination Solutions (BTES), LLC



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