Pre-MLK weekend weather tracking

BenedictGomez · Jan 17, 2017

bdfreetuna said:
I just wait till the last minute and stay in some unheard of motor lodge.

Same here. Booking 3 hotel rooms to intentionally remember to cancel 2 of them 24 hours out is way too much maintenance/work.

snoseek said:
Wait, where are you seeing shitty weather going into next week? Serious question as I thought overall things were on the mend moving forward

This weekend is okay. Next week looks like a total trainwreck of rain, and I doubt we dodge the bullet twice, because next week would be more like dodging a 12 gauge shotgun blast (loaded with #9 shot). One caveat is the Canuck, which suppresses everything with strong blocking to the south of ski country, but that model's on an island.

kingslug · Jan 18, 2017

I've come to the conclusion..that trying to predict mountain weather...is damn near impossible...

tumbler · Jan 18, 2017

you can't really pay serious attention more than 3 days out. 7-10 day are pretty much worthless except getting worked up over a rain storm that turns to snow...

dlague · Jan 18, 2017

MLK day has come and gone and this has changed to the Northeast weather thread! Very secretive.

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fcksummer · Jan 18, 2017

kingslug said:
I've come to the conclusion..that trying to predict mountain weather...is damn near impossible...

You're looking at the wrong model

KustyTheKlown · Jan 18, 2017

I think I'm gonna do sugarbush Saturday (ne ride and ski BOGO), stay in rutland, do okemo (max pass) on way home, and save the sugarbush/Stowe 5packs for February

BenedictGomez · Jan 18, 2017

tumbler said:
you can't really pay serious attention more than 3 days out. 7-10 day are pretty much worthless except getting worked up over a rain storm that turns to snow...

It really depends on what aspect of the weather you're talking about.

Snowfall totals? Then I tend to agree.
Temperatures? Then I tend to disagree.
Presence or lack thereof of a storm? Disagree.

Etcetera...

People posting snowfall total maps 10 days out should be drawn-and-quartered though.

Smellytele · Jan 18, 2017

BenedictGomez said:
It really depends on what aspect of the weather you're talking about.

Snowfall totals? Then I tend to agree.
Temperatures? Then I tend to disagree.
Presence or lack thereof of a storm? Disagree.

Etcetera...

People posting snowfall total maps 10 days out should be drawn-and-quartered though.

Most had temp wrong as well for this weather event 4 days out.

fbrissette · Jan 18, 2017

Smellytele said:
Most had temp wrong as well for this weather event 4 days out.

Not really. Forecasts all called for warmer temperatures than average and close to the freezing point.

Smellytele · Jan 18, 2017

fbrissette said:
Not really. Forecasts all called for warmer temperatures than average and close to the freezing point.

Well they were saying rain not snow and mid 30's not below freezing as it turned out.

slatham · Jan 18, 2017

Smellytele said:
Well they were saying rain not snow and mid 30's not below freezing as it turned out.

Tracked the is one closely for SoVT and models didn't show any frozen until Friday nights runs and not consistently until later Saturday, and even then it was mix. So the 4 day forecast from Friday for Tuesday was very poor, but to our benefit.

The post News Years rain storm turned cement storm with mix and snow (at least for SoVT) didn't start to show anything until within 24 hours of the event and the official forecast never changed.

Models seem to not have a handle on the Eastern Canada cold highs - often moving them out too quickly than reality. Even though no block (NAO not negative) the highs and cold air hang tough.

Now do we have a repeat next week? Not impossible and models are hinting? Lots of activity with several storms, cold air coming in with a pattern change. Models will flip and flop. Gonna be interesting at the least.

Do note that statistically the weather is most variable during a La Niña with a La Nada (what we have now) a close 2nd.

VTKilarney · Jan 18, 2017

Smellytele said:
Most had temp wrong as well for this weather event 4 days out.

But that is an anecdotal observation. It's possible that they didn't do so well with this particular date but that their overall performance is respectable.

fbrissette · Jan 18, 2017

slatham said:
Tracked the is one closely for SoVT and models didn't show any frozen until Friday nights runs and not consistently until later Saturday, and even then it was mix. So the 4 day forecast from Friday for Tuesday was very poor, but to our benefit.

You have very high expectations of models. 4 days out, they correctly predicted significant amount of precipitation (generally in the right area) with way above average temperature near the freezing point. A few degrees up or down makes a big difference for skiers, but to call the 4-day forecast poor is very harsh.

fbrissette · Jan 18, 2017

slatham said:
Do note that statistically the weather is most variable during a La Niña with a La Nada (what we have now) a close 2nd.

I'm sorry but that's BS.

tumbler · Jan 18, 2017

I wish the mets would not rely solely on the models and instead actually forecast from experience. I'm generalizing but it seems like it isn't as savy as it once was. I think that Tim Kelley goes outside the box sometimes along with Roger Hill and I'm sure there are others.

Tin · Jan 18, 2017

tumbler said:
I wish the mets would not rely solely on the models and instead actually forecast from experience. I'm generalizing but it seems like it isn't as savy as it once was. I think that Tim Kelley goes outside the box sometimes along with Roger Hill and I'm sure there are others.

Model "trends" over the course of a season are important and knowing which model excels during certain types of events and their weaknesses.

Jully · Jan 18, 2017

tumbler said:
I wish the mets would not rely solely on the models and instead actually forecast from experience. I'm generalizing but it seems like it isn't as savy as it once was. I think that Tim Kelley goes outside the box sometimes along with Roger Hill and I'm sure there are others.

Mets absolutely do that. Thats why every meteorologist doesn't have the same forecast with every impending storm.

BenedictGomez · Jan 18, 2017

Smellytele said:
Most had temp wrong as well for this weather event 4 days out.

Yes, but that was an exception, not the norm. About 3 or 4 days out, temps will be ballpark'ish correct more oft than not.

We need history to repeat next week too, because this storm that's coming is an absolute super-soaker. This would have been almost a 3 foot blizzard if there was cold air to work with.

Models have been hinting that enough cold air may be in place to hopefully save a place like n.VT etc... but we really need that trend to continue or everyone's screwed.

deadheadskier · Jan 18, 2017

My observation is at least for Northern NH, the Mets have been wrong on the warm side. This storm is the third one I can recall this season that substantial rain on the long term forecast ended up as snow. And the rain they were right about last week didn't come in the volume initially predicted. So, I'm keeping an optimistic outlook. I won't believe next week's rain prediction until 48 hours out

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LONGBOARDR · Jan 19, 2017

Jully said:
Mets absolutely do that. Thats why every meteorologist doesn't have the same forecast with every impending storm.

Totally agree,

Statistical models are part of a wx toolbox along with the dynamical models.
Specifically, statistical models are very useful for fine tuning small spatial scale predictions realtive to larger scale dynamical models.
Examples, lake effect snow east of the great lakes or northern VT near Jay orographic lifting AKA Jay Cloud

Pre-MLK weekend weather tracking

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