Snow..coming ???

Jully · Feb 28, 2018

Kleetus said:
Booked a room in Rutland for Saturday just in case this performs well. Rooms appear to be booking up with the storm potential, and since I can cancel up to Friday afternoon figured why not. Figure that is a good place to base out of in the event K gets a good dump or SoVT does depending on where this thing goes.

Now since I actually was pro-active for once in trying to secure a room on short notice instead of re-active, this storm will probably not deliver.

Figuring out where to go this weekend is a bit of a challenge for sure. Trying to decide between grabbing a room by Sunday River/the MWV or staying home. If the storm doesn't deliver and/or bombs down south, I'll want to be up north, but if Crotched gets nailed, even if it is nailed with wet slop, I'll probably still wish I was down there.

Rowsdower · Feb 28, 2018

I'm not seeing what you guys are seeing. Unless this thing is a serious elevation performer, it looks like the changeover mid storm will depress snowfall totals and leave whatever is on the ground as slop, not snow.

Actually right now it looks like Hunter and parts of the Catskills could come through ok, but its gonna be a close call.

Edit: I'm gonna pull the trigger on a room up in the Cattys anyway. If this thing comes together Hunter and Platty will be going off. Reminds me of the March 17th storm last year.

tnt1234 · Feb 28, 2018

Rowsdower said:
I'm not seeing what you guys are seeing. Unless this thing is a serious elevation performer, it looks like the changeover mid storm will depress snowfall totals and leave whatever is on the ground as slop, not snow.

Actually right now it looks like Hunter and parts of the Catskills could come through ok, but its gonna be a close call.

Edit: I'm gonna pull the trigger on a room up in the Cattys anyway. If this thing comes together Hunter and Platty will be going off. Reminds me of the March 17th storm last year.

Any idea what kind of shape Platte is in right now? though I guess if they get 20" of wet snow, it doesn't matter - that would open up the whole place I suppose.

sankaty · Feb 28, 2018

12Z Euro looks great for the Catskills. More than a foot of snow in Windham, NY. It's much cooler than its 0Z run. As modeled, it might start mixed with some raindrops, but surface temps quickly fall to around 30F for the heart of the event, so it probably wouldn't even be a super wet snow if that model run verified.

It shows a more moderate event for S VT with about 6 inches at Stratton. Still pretty dry north of there, tapering to only a couple of inches in the Killington area. I'm hoping it ramps up the precip over VT over the next few runs, but there's no particular reason to think it will other than standard model wobbles.

hammer · Feb 28, 2018

Have a room booked for the weekend at Killington, reserved several months ago. Can't cancel that, and we already bought tickets, so unless the drive is undoable we will be there.

Thoughts on the drive up on Friday and conditions on Saturday? Trying to see if there will be a better or worse time to drive up from Mass.

sankaty · Feb 28, 2018

hammer said:
Have a room booked for the weekend at Killington, reserved several months ago. Can't cancel that, and we already bought tickets, so unless the drive is undoable we will be there.

Thoughts on the drive up on Friday and conditions on Saturday? Trying to see if there will be a better or worse time to drive up from Mass.

Given the uncertainty with the placement and type of precip, it's really hard to make a guess on how bad travel will be. The timing is bad, with greatest amount of precip falling between 10AM and 10PM Friday. With a little luck for travelers, it could be mostly wet in the I-91 valley with most of the snow relegated to the higher elevations. In fact, that's kind of what the Euro is currently showing, but it has been cooling with each successive run, so who knows what will actually happen.

Right now, the most difficult travel looks like it would be from NW MA into S VT, but that could change.

x10003q · Feb 28, 2018

This storm is going to drop a mess on the roads from the flatlands to the mountains making the Friday drive north a pain in the ass while dropping only a few flakes on the mountains. The only thing worse than this for weekend warriors is a Sunday snow storm for the ride home.:???:

Kleetus · Feb 28, 2018

Rowsdower said:
I'm not seeing what you guys are seeing. Unless this thing is a serious elevation performer, it looks like the changeover mid storm will depress snowfall totals and leave whatever is on the ground as slop, not snow.

Actually right now it looks like Hunter and parts of the Catskills could come through ok, but its gonna be a close call.

Edit: I'm gonna pull the trigger on a room up in the Cattys anyway. If this thing comes together Hunter and Platty will be going off. Reminds me of the March 17th storm last year.

This is my plan B. If things come together for the Cats, will cancel the Rutland room and get a place down there.

tumbler · Feb 28, 2018

KustyTheKlown said:
thick pasty snow is just what the doctor ordered this weekend. then let some fluff fall on march 7 and we're back in biz

100% agreed.

podunk77 · Feb 28, 2018

Hoping for good karma for the Cats but also for Catamount and Butternut, where I'll be for a portion of next week.

KustyTheKlown · Feb 28, 2018

I give no credence to the GFS 15 days out, but ugh march 14-17 is looking problematic AF at the moment. :evil:

BenedictGomez · Feb 28, 2018

Rowsdower said:
I'm not seeing what you guys are seeing. Unless this thing is a serious elevation performer, it looks like the changeover mid storm will depress snowfall totals

Actually right now it looks like Hunter and parts of the Catskills could come through ok, but its gonna be a close call.

This.

Unless the models are pretty off, this isnt going to do much for anyone other than NYS and maybe s.VT if they get lucky.

tnt1234 said:
Any idea what kind of shape Platte is in right now? though I guess if they get 20" of wet snow, it doesn't matter - that would open up the whole place I suppose.

LOOKS TERRIBLE. I had the same thought, that if they get 15" maybe I'll head up on Sunday after the wind dies. But looking at these webcams makes you want to cry. Bare ground all over it seems. I had no idea they got trashed so bad

bdfreetuna · Feb 28, 2018

What's interesting is that Wunderground has at least temporarily switched to optimistic mode

KustyTheKlown · Feb 28, 2018

ugh^ (re: plattekill photos)

while I'm not giving up yet and have faith that march will provide, it's warm and sunny in nyc, and I can't even ride my bike. two weeks ago I dropped my keys (car, apartment, bike locks, and work remote access device) down a NYC sewer. everything was replaceable except for the bike keys, and now I need to find someone to help me cut bike locks.

Glenn · Feb 28, 2018

The ride up Friday could be interesting. We've had a few that had us in the rain for 90% of the ride up 91, then we hit Bernardston and things get snowy in a hurry. Happened for me in that late February/Early March storm a few years back; "Mt. Snow "Snowicane"" as they called it. Then again for that foot of fresh a few Thanksgivings ago. I remember we hopped off Exit 1 after seeing close to 10 cars off the road and one big rig stuck on the hill just north of the Welcome Center.

drjeff · Feb 28, 2018

Glenn said:
The ride up Friday could be interesting. We've had a few that had us in the rain for 90% of the ride up 91, then we hit Bernardston and things get snowy in a hurry. Happened for me in that late February/Early March storm a few years back; "Mt. Snow "Snowicane"" as they called it. Then again for that foot of fresh a few Thanksgivings ago. I remember we hopped off Exit 1 after seeing close to 10 cars off the road and one big rig stuck on the hill just north of the Welcome Center.

Yup!!!

Gotta go to the condo at Mount Snow 1st, and then grab E and head up to just North of Killington Friday night ahead of her state meet at Middlebury Snowbowl Saturday-Monday.....

And that's after making a bit of a white knuckle drive this past Sunday AM from the condo up to Pico for D's race.... First tracks sometimes are great. First tracks on a DARK 100 north descending the 11 or so miles from the Mount Snow area down to 30 in Wardsboro in the dark with heavy snow before the plows hit it, isn't fun!!!

legalskier · Feb 28, 2018

BenedictGomez said:
I had the same thought, that if they get 15" maybe I'll head up on Sunday after the wind dies.

Platty's been having a rough time of it lately- hopefully this storm will deliver. At Belle yesterday I was surprised how well their base is holding up- here's Dot Nebel:

There was a lot of chatter on the lift rides about the expected snows, not only on Friday but several times next week. Some nice natural on top of this base and they'll be in very nice shape. *fingers crossed*

sankaty · Feb 28, 2018

I'm really not too concerned about warmth for the ski areas at this point. The models are tending cooler in the boundary layer with each run. The big question is whether heavy precip makes it north of the Catskills. If it does, I'm confident it will be at least 90% snow.

I don't put too much stock in the NAM, the the 18Z run that is coming out now is crazy. It prints out almost 20" of snow for NYC. Far southern NJ sees more than a foot of snow in 6 hours. I don't think this will happen, but the point is each run shows a new evolution. The main constant has been that the Catskills do OK, but it's touch and go getting precip further north. The latest NAM shows about 20" for the Catskills, about a foot for Mt. Snow/Stratton, 6-8 Killington/Pico, and not much north of there. The NAM is notorious for overdoing precip and has been all over the place, so I don't think these numbers mean much in isolation.

bdfreetuna · Feb 28, 2018

sankaty said:
I don't put too much stock in the NAM, the the 18Z run that is coming out now is crazy.

49" for Hunter on the latest 3km run... lol

tnt1234 · Feb 28, 2018

bdfreetuna said:
What's interesting is that Wunderground has at least temporarily switched to optimistic mode

View attachment 23364

boy, look at that.....

Snow..coming ???

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