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What are we thinking about the end of January?

rocks860

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Just got a call that a week freed up for trade at sugarbush for 1/26-2/2. I think I was up there the same week last year and it was definitely not great.


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ss20

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A minute from the Alta exit off the I-15!
Just got a call that a week freed up for trade at sugarbush for 1/26-2/2. I think I was up there the same week last year and it was definitely not great.


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This is the East coast. There will always be a chance it'll be icy groomers. It's not a "this month is good" or "this week is good" thing.
 

rocks860

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I’ve just been noticing over the past few years that conditions have been consistently better in mid February to early March but this is the only thing that’s opened up since I put myself on the wait list last year so I guess I don’t have too much of a choice


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rocks860

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Bash away, I took my summer hiatus from here so I’m sure I’ll post plenty of stupid stuff before I get back in the groove


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ss20

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A minute from the Alta exit off the I-15!
I’ve just been noticing over the past few years that conditions have been consistently better in mid February to early March but this is the only thing that’s opened up since I put myself on the wait list last year so I guess I don’t have too much of a choice


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Last year and the year before it was in the 60s and 70s President's week...

Again...zero correlation between timing and good conditions in the Northeast. Mid-to-late March is typically the deepest snowpack... the past 2 years late March and Early April were the best times of the season. But of course this can happen as well... 2012...when everyone melted out in a 70 degree March... http://www.killingtonzone.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=34609
 

shwilly

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I believe it was in that date range last year that I had one memorable run down a glazed trail with my younger daughter howling that she never wanted to do this again, EVER.

Then a week later was powdery and great. Miraculously, the one weekend we had guests flying in to ski with us was the best weekend of the mid-season.

Conditions might be great or awful. All you can control is your own mindset and your off-snow plans.

Subjectively, it does seem like there have been some lousy conditions in late January the last few years, but who knows?
 

rocks860

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Apparently I’m first on the list for February 2 and March 2 as well, just wondering if I should press my luck and just wait and see


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mriceyman

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Could be cold or not and maybe some fresh snow or not


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Hawk

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Rocks, I here what you are asking. I been skiing at the Bush for a while now and I have had really good skiing the last week in January and I have had really bad skiing. ON average over the last 12 or so years it has been 50-50. So I guess it is a total crap shoot. Take it for what it is worth.
 

cdskier

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I think Hawk's 50-50 is pretty accurate. In the past 7 years, Sugarbush has been anywhere from <50% open to 100% open during the week in question and has had anywhere from 67" to 188" of total snowfall up to that point. 4 of the last 7 years they've been 100% during at least some point of that particular week (of course with Sugarbush being very lenient on trail opening, that doesn't necessarily mean they had good conditions, but at least you know there was enough natural snow for the trails to all be skiable).

I'm glad I don't have to try to plan these type of trips in advance anymore. You just never know and hope for the best. First time I ever went to Sugarbush was in mid-late January and it was absolutely fantastic and what hooked me on the place.
 

rocks860

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Yeah at this point I’m just trying to decide whether I take my chances on this week or hold out to try to get a later week with no guarantees. If I don’t get a trade the week we have is the last week or so in March


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cdskier

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Now I'm curious...if you already have the last week of March, why are you trying to trade for earlier? If I had a choice between late March and the end of January, I'd consider late March the "safer" bet (but of course you still never know for sure). Out of the past 7 years, Sugarbush was 100% open in late March all but 2 of those years.

Edit: I looked back another 3 years at snow reports in my e-mail. Adding in those 3 years, SB was 100% open in late March in all but 3 of the past 10 years. One of the 3 years where they were not 100% open at that point they were only off by a handful of trails.
 

bigbog

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Fwiw...
@EOJ >2 days....Sugarloaf has always seemed to be terrific. Bangor has been cold & dry...and talking to shopguys around the Carrab Valley = has been great for many years....once over the few days at the beginning of the month and before the potential melt/freezes of late March...but yeah all that was prior to 16/17's horror. Think that season got me to grab the Epic Pass in case, but the EOJ-EOF is prime time at the Loaf...imho = very cold but dry as hell.
 
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rocks860

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Now I'm curious...if you already have the last week of March, why are you trying to trade for earlier? If I had a choice between late March and the end of January, I'd consider late March the "safer" bet (but of course you still never know for sure). Out of the past 7 years, Sugarbush was 100% open in late March all but 2 of those years.

Edit: I looked back another 3 years at snow reports in my e-mail. Adding in those 3 years, SB was 100% open in late March in all but 3 of the past 10 years. One of the 3 years where they were not 100% open at that point they were only off by a handful of trails.

Late March has been pretty rough since I was pretty young. I’m talking like last week of march. I was there probably 8 or 9 years ago the week of st Patrick’s day and over the span of the week 90% of the mountain melted. I was also there the week of st patty’s day for that incredible storm where it snowed 40+ inches in 3 days. I feel like February is generally a safer bet than end of March. Just trying to figure out if I should hold out for a later week

Edit: it’s also generally easier for me to get time off work mid winter vs time in March


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mikec142

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You just never know. Mid-March this year brought us Winter Storm Skylar and some of the best east coast skiing of the past decade.

This past season:

December - Epic
January - Shitty
February - Shitty
March - Ultra Epic
 

slatham

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You just never know. Mid-March this year brought us Winter Storm Skylar and some of the best east coast skiing of the past decade.

This past season:

December - Epic
January - Shitty
February - Shitty
March - Ultra Epic

It’s impossible to forecast decent skiing on the East coast more than 7 days out (and even this is hard and often wrong). It’s either take your chances, or learn about the weather and be opportunistic. To speculate how skiing will be in late January is completely impossible. We could have the best winter ever yet the one non-frozen storm hits when your there. Just the way it is....


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rocks860

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Well decided to just go with it. Will be at sugarbush from 1/26 to 2/2


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