2018/19 Skier visits - Page 2

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  1. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Smellytele View Post
    Right I just was going with the topic. So I am saying Skier visits is not the best thing to go with to measure success.


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    Agreed there are some major short comings, but I am not aware of another metric, available to the public, that broadly represents the health of the ski industry.
    2017/18 = 37
    2016/17 = 31
    2015/16 = Depressing
    2014/15 = 28
    2013/14 = 27

  2. #12

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    While we don't know the precise numbers, we know the basic just from human nature.

    1) Good snow year, more people ski more days. (basically, if you had a good time, you want to go again)

    2) New pass means new area to check out. A.K.A. "lateral shift". Mind you, the shift is TO mountains included in the new pass.

    So there's no doubt Ikon is responsible for some of the increase. But we don't quite know how to separate that increase from the increase due to good snow year. All we know is the combo is causing significant crowding in some mountains, while other mountains are handling the increase much more gracefully.

  3. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by shwilly View Post
    I'd say it's very important for the health of the sport and industry. The more people have more good days, the more people will fall in love with skiing. Many of the fanatics getting tons of days on their passes are buying real estate, teaching their kids to ski, and bringing friends along to buy day tickets. Converting more fanatics is a good thing! I don't know how noisy skier visits are from year to year, but in general an 11% year-over-year increase in a mature industry is fantastic.
    I doubt many people are, "falling in love with skiing" at $169 single-day lift ticket prices.

    That 11% YoY increase is almost certainly driven by locals & EPIC/IKON, not by new participants.
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  4. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by shwilly View Post

    I don't know how noisy skier visits are from year to year, but in general an 11% year-over-year increase in a mature industry is fantastic.
    I took the time to put this graph together 9 years ago. You can see the number of skier visits to VT has been bouncing around 4 million per year. I haven't done an update, but news flash, the number of skier visits for the 17-18 season was...

    Historic_skier_visits.jpg

    3.97 million visits. If you're not good at math, it's the same.

    There's been variations due to the economy, big gas price hiccups, or bad snow years, but getting over the hiccups isn't growth.

    Vermont skier visits for 18-19 aren't out yet. One thing we might see as the cheap multi mountain passes take hold is a true increase in visits. More skiers owning season passes might well turn into more visits per skier.
    Last edited by mister moose; May 2, 2019 at 9:26 AM.

  5. #15
    thetrailboss's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smellytele View Post
    If people have the epic or Ikon passes do skier visits really matter? Is that a good measurement of revenue or success?
    Good question.

    Skier days is what they have always used, but perhaps in this day in age it may not be the right measurement.
    Live, Ski, or Die!


  6. #16
    Smellytele's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mister moose View Post
    I took the time to put this graph together 9 years ago. You can see the number of skier visits to VT has been bouncing around 4 million per year. I haven't done an update, but news flash, the number of skier visits for the 17-18 season was...

    Historic_skier_visits.jpg

    3.97 million visits. If you're not good at math, it's the same.

    Vermont skier visits for 18-19 aren't out yet. One thing we might see as the cheap multi mountain passes take hold is a true increase in visits. More skiers owning season passes might well turn into more visits per skier.
    More visits per pass holder means less money per visit. The optimal scenario is season pass holders not visiting often at all and selling more day tickets.


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  7. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Smellytele View Post
    More visits per pass holder means less money per visit. The optimal scenario is season pass holders not visiting often at all and selling more day tickets.


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    Season pass holders still spend money when they go to the hill, why wouldnt you want them there? I would say the optimal scenario is more day tickets and more season pass holders. They can have their cake and eat it too.


  8. #18

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    “A bird in hand is...”

    Season pass is worth a lot more than their numerical value because it’s upfront.

    You can also use that money to pay for stuff. While day tickets don’t come in till the day the skier shows up... or not show up at all (in which case you don’t get the money at all)

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by slatham View Post
    Flash report from NSAA is over 59 million, up 11% YOY.

    Given all the noise about EPIC and Ikon-ic crowding this year I would have expected higher. Massive snow year out West, good to very good year in the East, strong economy, etc.
    That is 11% my friend. They went from around 52 Million visits to 59 Million. That is a huge increase as far as skier visits go. I wish all my investments did 11%.

  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by abc View Post
    A bird in hand is...

    Season pass is worth a lot more than their numerical value because its upfront.

    You can also use that money to pay for stuff. While day tickets dont come in till the day the skier shows up... or not show up at all (in which case you dont get the money at all)
    People also buy their passes before they know if it will be a good winter. This locks in a minimum amount of revenue that the operator receives and puts a floor on how bad lean winters get.

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    Ski season is always too short

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