Saddleback Meeting

EPB · Feb 3, 2020

machski said:
Well, let Saddleback go detachable on Rangley. Better hope they start pulling upwards of not North of at least 125K visits/year or they will likely be headed back towards NELSAP. The amount of extra yearly maintenance/operational costs of a detach vs FG will require that. And before some note examples like Burke with 2 detaches, they have been owned by Jay and thus could cost/revenue share across the group prior to receivership (and probably still within it as well). A better example may be Ascutney. They put in a HSQ and it wasn't long before they were gone and they were much closer to population bases than Saddleback. What did Saddleback peak out at under the Berry's for annual skier visits? Did they ever hit 100K?

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Ascutney is the cautionary tale. Burke is indeed more complicated (I thought the lower high speed lift was pre Jay though). I hear you that this raises the visitor visit bar to justify the investment and related maintenance.

The pro-detachable argument is that a shiny toy is needed to lure enough intermediate-heavy skiers up to Rangeley (and past so many other options) to justify operating the business. To bring me onto your side of the fence, I'd need to understand why you think enough people would show up for a fixed grip option. As you well know, Saddleback is outside of day trip range for much of it's target visitor base. Good infrastructure is important to get people to make that type of a commitment. I'd gladly ride a fixed lift a few times a day, but I acknowledge that is an obvious sticking point for many.

Regarding visits, I thought I saw 110k was peak for them in the press releases. Don't have time to check though. I know this was mentioned before, but I'd be curious to know if a high speed option helps win a super pass partnership arrangement, too. Saddleback could be attractive to either pass offering to help spread people out. Obviously that would help to get visits/revenue up.

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deadheadskier · Feb 3, 2020

Ascutney is a cautionary tale for sure, but they had snowmaking issues and only get 120" or so of natural a year at a much warmer location. Had they invested equally in snowmaking, they might have made it.

I do agree for a HSQ to work, you need to be doing 100k skier visits or more a year.

Wildcat might be a good comp on a low skier visit, low snowmaking budget model mountain with a HSQ that has managed to survive albeit with the financial help of Peak/Vail propping them up lately.

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EPB · Feb 3, 2020

deadheadskier said:
Ascutney is a cautionary tale for sure, but they had snowmaking issues and only get 120" or so of natural a year at a much warmer location. Had they invested equally in snowmaking, they might have made it.

I do agree for a HSQ to work, you need to be doing 100k skier visits or more a year.

Wildcat might be a good comp on a low skier visit, low snowmaking budget model mountain with a HSQ that has managed to survive albeit with the financial help of Peak/Vail propping them up lately.

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Great call on Wildcat. I was trying to think of a good example and it was right under my nose.

Another thing I forgot to mention is that they are planning to run a full resort up there. Who is to say that the breakeven skier visit threshold to support Saddleback with a fixed quad would also be enough to support the full resort? Making up numbers, perhaps standalone Saddleback could be viable with 100k visits with a fixed Rangeley replacement, but the resort build out needs more like 130k. Then a high speed option makes a ton of sense if you
can fit it in your budget.

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MEtoVTSkier · Feb 3, 2020

Newpylong said:
A fixed grip would be a grave mistake. For an entity stating they want to grow the business, a 4500' signature lift needs to be high speed or they'll suffer the same fate. This would also open the summit up to non-winter activities.

According to SB the Rangley is 4717' in length, with 1177' vertical.

machski · Feb 3, 2020

deadheadskier said:
Ascutney is a cautionary tale for sure, but they had snowmaking issues and only get 120" or so of natural a year at a much warmer location. Had they invested equally in snowmaking, they might have made it.

I do agree for a HSQ to work, you need to be doing 100k skier visits or more a year.

Wildcat might be a good comp on a low skier visit, low snowmaking budget model mountain with a HSQ that has managed to survive albeit with the financial help of Peak/Vail propping them up lately.

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Wildcat might be comparable to a point, but it is much closer to both Boston metro and a large resort area (North Conway) than Saddleback is. Wildcat's HSQ is also almost 2000' longer line length and replaced a Gondola (albeit an ancient, two seater). The other thing that makes Wildcat's HSQ unique is that they didn't just let the Gondola go, the HSQ converts over to a Gondola in the summer to keep the scenic lift business going.

Look, Saddleback could be well served with a HSQ up the Rangley line. But at less than 5000' line length, it is in the length where the debate about detach vs fixed grip is at its peak. 5000 + and not a specialized terrain pod, usually you go detach. Less length and that is where the debate heats up. They need to be clear on which way they are going and stick to that. A detach asks a lot, they had better have solid snowmaking from day 1 to back that asset up if they go that route. They need to draw skiers from a large distance there, and there is a resort just up the ridgeline that has solid snowmaking and resort base already.

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bdfreetuna · Feb 3, 2020

Anything less than an 8 pack Bubble Lift is mentally insane and career suicide for the new owners.

Oh but we'll go ski MRG and Smuggs without complaining

We already know they're putting a new lift there. How about some terrain expansion plans?

MEtoVTSkier · Feb 3, 2020

bdfreetuna said:
Anything less than an 8 pack Bubble Lift is mentally insane and career suicide for the new owners.

Oh but we'll go ski MRG and Smuggs without complaining

We already know they're putting a new lift there. How about some terrain expansion plans?

I'm the opposite. It's the first thing I look for, especially if it's a longer lift. But remember, you are not a "Terminal Intermediate" like a large share of the masse are. You are gonna be on Expert terrain or in the trees, not lapping groomers all day...

Wildcat Mountain is the only place in North America where you’ll find the unique lift conversion from a high-speed Quad in the winter to a scenic gondola in the summer. To view the Best Scenery in the East (SKI Magazine 2014), ride aboard our four-person enclosed scenic gondola to Wildcat Mountain's 4,000+ foot summit. Fresh Lunch & Ride packages are available for you to enjoy a unique picnic experience while taking in 360 degree views at the summit.

That could be an interesting addition down the road for them, depending on what they end up doing for summer activities. (Peak wedding chapel?) As long as the quad is engineered for the gondi's right from the get-go. You don't have to do the gondi car investment until year(s) down the road if you don't want to, as long as they can swap right into the system at that point.

I don't think they need to worry about terrain expansion anytime soon, at least not in the first 5 years. Lots of great terrain there already to keep most everyone from becoming bored.

bdfreetuna · Feb 3, 2020

Do you think Saddleback is going to start attracting the casual skier crowd though? Did they ever, besides some locals?

Due to the distance most people have to travel, and the world-class tree skiing and moguls, I figured the most they can realistically hope for is good skiers coming up with their families on a "advanced skier vacation".

I kind of figured I'm exactly who their target market is. "Expert"/tree-loving skier with a family, willing to drive there once every couple years, and ready to rent a slopeside condo if they're close to the price they used to be.

They have some nice groomers but the mountain is mostly woods and bump runs.

EPB · Feb 3, 2020

machski said:
Wildcat might be comparable to a point, but it is much closer to both Boston metro and a large resort area (North Conway) than Saddleback is. Wildcat's HSQ is also almost 2000' longer line length and replaced a Gondola (albeit an ancient, two seater). The other thing that makes Wildcat's HSQ unique is that they didn't just let the Gondola go, the HSQ converts over to a Gondola in the summer to keep the scenic lift business going.

Look, Saddleback could be well served with a HSQ up the Rangley line. But at less than 5000' line length, it is in the length where the debate about detach vs fixed grip is at its peak. 5000 + and not a specialized terrain pod, usually you go detach. Less length and that is where the debate heats up. They need to be clear on which way they are going and stick to that. A detach asks a lot, they had better have solid snowmaking from day 1 to back that asset up if they go that route. They need to draw skiers from a large distance there, and there is a resort just up the ridgeline that has solid snowmaking and resort base already.

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Wildcat is a better comp than I had initially realized because:

1) While being closer to North Conway and Boston, we know that it's not a high traffic area (I've got plenty of theories for why that's the case, but it distracts from the point). In some ways, it's like Ascutney. Tons of people are skiing within a 20-30 mile radius, but most go elsewhere.
2) The weather is pretty similar. 200ish inches of snow and 1900+ foot bases mean snowmaking is important for intermediate trails, but less necessary on black terrain than most places.
3) Saddleback does want to use the resort in all seasons, and weddings are on the table. Having a detachable setup makes life easier in the summer, too.

It's not a slam dunk either way which is precisely what makes it a fun debate.

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EPB · Feb 3, 2020

bdfreetuna said:
Do you think Saddleback is going to start attracting the casual skier crowd though? Did they ever, besides some locals?

Due to the distance most people have to travel, and the world-class tree skiing and moguls, I figured the most they can realistically hope for is good skiers coming up with their families on a "advanced skier vacation".

I kind of figured I'm exactly who their target market is. "Expert"/tree-loving skier with a family, willing to drive there once every couple years, and ready to rent a slopeside condo if they're close to the price they used to be.

They have some nice groomers but the mountain is mostly woods and bump runs.

I think the place is likely to continue to skew more advanced, but that permanent intermediate class is just so large by comparison that it probably makes sense to do enough to take a bite from that demographic.

Regarding your idea on more terrain, they used to have their proposed lifts on their trail map. I always thought that the relatively new drive terminal on the Rangeley double would make a nice starting point for a budget west/backside lift. Probably a pipe dream though.

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thetrailboss · Feb 3, 2020

SkierDude said:
Friends of Saddleback Mountain Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/groups/277158955983493/permalink/1043194702713244/

Well, that confirms their intent.

thetrailboss · Feb 3, 2020

machski said:
Well, let Saddleback go detachable on Rangley. Better hope they start pulling upwards of not North of at least 125K visits/year or they will likely be headed back towards NELSAP. The amount of extra yearly maintenance/operational costs of a detach vs FG will require that. And before some note examples like Burke with 2 detaches, they have been owned by Jay and thus could cost/revenue share across the group prior to receivership (and probably still within it as well). A better example may be Ascutney. They put in a HSQ and it wasn't long before they were gone and they were much closer to population bases than Saddleback. What did Saddleback peak out at under the Berry's for annual skier visits? Did they ever hit 100K?

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Neither Burke lifts were installed by Jay; both were by the previous owner (Lubert Adler).

Ascutney, as said, looks like a comparative but as DHS said there are other complicating factors including location, lack of snow, lack of snowmaking, etc. The bad management/ownership also played a very significant role in killing what traffic they had.

I agree with the Wildcat comparison. FWIW the family that owned the resort installed that lift and continued to hang on, but barely. Peaks had a lot of work to do on the snowmaking IIRC. So not a bad comparison.

LoafSkier19 · Feb 17, 2020

They officially announced the purchase of new high speed quad for the Rangeley at the party they held in the lodge yesterday. Even had the Doppelmayr rep there. Video of it can be found here on the Friends of Saddleback FB page (most recent video)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/277158955983493/?ref=share

Smellytele · Feb 17, 2020

Yeehaw. Speculations over. Detachable quad. Nice!

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Edd · Feb 17, 2020

LoafSkier19 said:
They officially announced the purchase of new high speed quad for the Rangeley at the party they held in the lodge yesterday. Even had the Doppelmayr rep there. Video of it can be found here on the Friends of Saddleback FB page (most recent video)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/277158955983493/?ref=share

Incredible news!

MEtoVTSkier · Feb 17, 2020

LoafSkier19 said:
They officially announced the purchase of new high speed quad for the Rangeley at the party they held in the lodge yesterday. Even had the Doppelmayr rep there. Video of it can be found here on the Friends of Saddleback FB page (most recent video)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/277158955983493/?ref=share

bdfreetuna · Feb 17, 2020

eastern powder baby said:
I always thought that the relatively new drive terminal on the Rangeley double would make a nice starting point for a budget west/backside lift. Probably a pipe dream though.

I'll smoke a pipe to that dream!

Great news about the new lift. Could care less what it is -- but this means: IT'S HAPPENING !

Smellytele · Feb 17, 2020

bdfreetuna said:
I'll smoke a pipe to that dream!

Great news about the new lift. Could care less what it is -- but this means: IT'S HAPPENING !

So you care somewhat if you could care less

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bdfreetuna · Feb 17, 2020

no I mean between a fixed grip and detach quad I had zero concern either way aside from banter's sake. I might be a minority on this forum but I actually have less expertise when it comes to lifts than the engineers at Poma, Dopplemayr, etc

I will absolutely be at Saddleback for re-opening year

Smellytele · Feb 17, 2020

bdfreetuna said:
no I mean between a fixed grip and detach quad I had zero concern either way aside from banter's sake. I might be a minority on this forum but I actually have less expertise when it comes to lifts than the engineers at Poma, Dopplemayr, etc

I will absolutely be at Saddleback for re-opening year

Then you couldn’t care less not could.

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