Winter 2019/2020 - Page 3

AlpineZone

Page 3 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast
Results 21 to 30 of 48
  1. #21
    From Jessica Facebook forecaster
    Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago

    I hope all y'all had an enjoyable Thanksgiving

    Today will be dry, but cold and a bit breezy. Friday will start out Okay, but a storm will be in the Midwest. This storm is currently on a track similar to many of the other storms of late, but the setup is a little different. We’re going to have blocking high pressure in Eastern Canada back into the Great Lakes. This is going to force our storm’s energy to turn south and east. The transfer of energy will allow a secondary storm to form off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This transfer looks to start later Sunday morning.

    The track and extent of the cold air will be a major factor in who sees what. But based on a blend of the American and European models…. this is looking very possible.

    The General Idea:

    Rain will move into southwest Pennsylvania late Saturday afternoon/evening into Saturday night. During the overnight (1-2 AM) Sunday morning, rain will change over to freezing rain (ZR) for western into central Pennsylvania (southwest Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh should see mainly rain). As we move into Sunday morning ZR will be falling over Northern Pennsylvania into western New York State. The ZR looks to fall for several hours. This could lead to quite a bit of ice accretion (0.10 to 0.25 inches with localized amounts of 0.50 inches). During the afternoon snow will be falling over interior New York State, Vermont, into New Hampshire. and most of southern New England. By Sunday night the coastal low will be wrapping up. And banding will be setting up, right now that looks to be across the eastern Mohawk Valley, the New York Capital District, and across Massachusetts, and most likely back into Northwest Pennsylvania and Southwest New York State (South and east of Syracuse and Utica) (Poconos and the Catskills 6+). The storm will last through Monday into Tuesday morning. Parts of Eastern New York State (around Albany could be the jackpot), back into Northwest Pennsylvania (Scranton), Southern Vermont Southern New Hampshire, Southern Maine, Massachusetts (Boston 6+) and parts of northern Connecticut look to see fairly significant and plowable snow (6 to 12+ inches). Snow amounts west and north of these areas will see lower amounts, but areas like State College and the Finger Lakes will still most likely end up with some snow. Northern New York State, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and northern Maine will see lesser amounts than those to the south.

    This is all subject to change as things evolve.
    This is based on my analysis, for official information go to your local NWS website.

    I will have more later this evening and tomorrow.


  2. #22
    From Jessica Facebook forecaster
    Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago
    https://www.facebook.com/25498278121...2908346423185/
    I hope all y'all had an enjoyable Thanksgiving
    https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanorthe...&source=result
    Today will be dry, but cold and a bit breezy. Friday will start out Okay, but a storm will be in the Midwest. This storm is currently on a track similar to many of the other storms of late, but the setup is a little different. We’re going to have blocking high pressure in Eastern Canada back into the Great Lakes. This is going to force our storm’s energy to turn south and east. The transfer of energy will allow a secondary storm to form off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This transfer looks to start later Sunday morning.

    The track and extent of the cold air will be a major factor in who sees what. But based on a blend of the American and European models…. this is looking very possible.

    The General Idea:

    Rain will move into southwest Pennsylvania late Saturday afternoon/evening into Saturday night. During the overnight (1-2 AM) Sunday morning, rain will change over to freezing rain (ZR) for western into central Pennsylvania (southwest Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh should see mainly rain). As we move into Sunday morning ZR will be falling over Northern Pennsylvania into western New York State. The ZR looks to fall for several hours. This could lead to quite a bit of ice accretion (0.10 to 0.25 inches with localized amounts of 0.50 inches). During the afternoon snow will be falling over interior New York State, Vermont, into New Hampshire. and most of southern New England. By Sunday night the coastal low will be wrapping up. And banding will be setting up, right now that looks to be across the eastern Mohawk Valley, the New York Capital District, and across Massachusetts, and most likely back into Northwest Pennsylvania and Southwest New York State (South and east of Syracuse and Utica) (Poconos and the Catskills 6+). The storm will last through Monday into Tuesday morning. Parts of Eastern New York State (around Albany could be the jackpot), back into Northwest Pennsylvania (Scranton), Southern Vermont Southern New Hampshire, Southern Maine, Massachusetts (Boston 6+) and parts of northern Connecticut look to see fairly significant and plowable snow (6 to 12+ inches). Snow amounts west and north of these areas will see lower amounts, but areas like State College and the Finger Lakes will still most likely end up with some snow. Northern New York State, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and northern Maine will see lesser amounts than those to the south.

    This is all subject to change as things evolve.
    This is based on my analysis, for official information go to your local NWS website.

    I will have more later this evening and tomorrow.

  3. #23
    kingslug's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Stamford Ct and Stowe
    Posts
    5,093
    Its going to snow in the Cats..because..i will be there...
    Lets go!
    I'll drive.

  4. #24
    [QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029538]From Jessica Facebook forecaster
    Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago
    https://www.facebook.com/25498278121...2908346423185/
    I
    https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanorthe...&source=result
    The Northeast is seeing its first significant widespread snowstorm of the season. I've seen around 8 inches of snow.

    Snow is falling this morning across interior areas of the Northeast, from Pennsylvania, New York State, and New England. Boston, New York City and Philadelphia are seeing their first real accumulation of the season Rain showers are affecting areas closer to the coast, the I 95, across southern and southwest Pennsylvania. but most of these areas should see snow develop later today.

    Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories have been issued by the National Weather Service across a broad area from Maine into Pennsylvania. Heavy snow bands setup last evening/night, dumped a lot of snow across parts of the region. Winds with gust around 40 mph are impacting the Coast, while winds with gust of 20-30 mph are over the interior.

    I'm seeing the expected post on a busted forecast for certain areas. But this isn't over yet...or even started yet for parts of eastern Pennsylvania Into New England. These areas will most likely see snow from part two...........

    Part one is basically over, today into Tuesday we will be dealing with part two. The coastal low is stalled east of New Jersey and south of Long Island. Several inches of additional snow are likely from northeast Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey Southeast New York/Hudson Valley (north of New York City) and much of New England. Central/southern Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts, look to see 2-4 inches. Even the Jersey Shore should see 1-2 inches. Northeast Pennsylvania Allentown, Scranton, down into Philadelphia, Southeast New York State including Albany and across much of western and northern Connecticut will likely see 3 to 6 inches of additional snow today. Massachusetts, Southern Vermont, Southern New Hampshire and Eastern New England will see 6-18 inches of additional snow. The Tuesday commute across these areas will be rough. Maryland and Delaware north of DC could see a dusting to an inch or so of snow.

    Today snow amounts will depend on where banding sets up. So, differences in snow amounts will likely occur over relatively short distances. Some areas will see more than I’m showing others will see less than I’m showing……. We’re use to snowstorms and banding so this is nothing new. But generally this is how it should work out.

    Snow will be winding down Tuesday afternoon and it should mostly be over with by Tuesday night.

  5. #25
    A fast-moving clipper system moving through the region this morning will track over New York State and New England, this afternoon and evening. Here is a look at radar from Weather Tap. The snow will make it into eastern Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine this afternoon. This is/will bring New York State and New England. Much of New York State (north of the southern tier) into central and southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, northern Massachusetts, into Maine will see generally 1-4 inches of snow, with higher elevations seeing a bit more perhaps 6- maybe 8 inches. The NYS southern tier into northern Pennsylvania and across the rest of Massachusetts back into Southeast New York State south of the NYS Capital District, and central Pennsylvania a Dusting to an inch or so of a mix/snow is likely (The Catskills into the Poconos 1-3 inches is possible) . The rest of the region will see mostly rain. Most of the precipitation will be exiting the coast later this evening.

    Behind the clipper high pressure will setup, ushering in colder temperatures for tonight into Saturday. As we approach Sunday southerly winds ahead of another system, will bring warm temperatures, with rain showers for Monday and Tuesday. Both Monday and Tuesday will be quite warm. A strong cold front will approach late Tuesday, as the cold front moves through rain will change over to a mix / snow. Winds will become very blustery and temperatures will plummet. Wednesday will see lingering snow showers, especially in higher elevations across New York State and New England. Winds will stay gusty with cold temperatures. Thursday will see the cold continue. Lake Effect Snow, is looking likely for Wednesday and at least Thursday. Wind direction will determine who sees what, but the typical areas east and southeast of the Great Lakes will end up with snow…..were the most persistent bands set up significant snow is quite possible.
    From my very very reliable forecasters from Facebook Rebecca north east

  6. #26
    More awesome news from oh Rebecca I think I love your forecasts and accuracy

    "I do what to touch on the mid to long range……….

    As I said in the earlier post, we will have a strong cold front dropping in Tuesday night into Wednesday. The front will be slow moving, the upper air profile is such that a wave of low pressure could form along the frontal boundary. Looking at the current satellite and radar map, we can see the current clipper moving through the Northeast; we can also see a disturbance moving into northern California and Oregon; this is going to drop south and east as it develops, as we approach mid-week this piece of energy will be near or over the Gulf of Mexico. With the cold front extending deep into the south, low pressure could develop, and then move north and east. How this tracks will depend on the speed of the trough as it pushes east.

    We’re still a week out, so exact details are difficult. But, Tuesday into Wednesday two pieces of energy, one on the northern stream, the other on the Southern stream will have to be watched. Depending on timing, these two pieces could interact as the Northern wave slows down, allowing the Southern wave to catch up and merge. As the trough takes a negative tilt, we could have a storm riding along the coast or just inland of the coast. With the cold air coming in, an interior snow storm is possible for Midweek into the 2nd half of next week. For the I-95 corridor and Northern Mid Atlantic, rain could change over to some snow, as colder air overtakes the region. But given the setup there is also a chance the leading trough won't slow down enough for a phase to occur, If this is the case, this becomes a Cutter and moving over the Great Lakes to our west. We have lots of time for this to change one way or the other, right now it’s a watch and see.

    It’s way too soon, to talk impacts; but, I did want to let you know about it.

    The longer range

    By Wednesday, we will be in the beginning stages of a major pattern change. This is tied into the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event; I’ve been talking about. We’re going to see steep ridging develop over Western North America, as the deep trough overtakes much of the Eastern CONUS. This setup is going to lead to a stormy pattern over the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Heading into Mid-Month, I expect to see a very deep trough over the Eastern CONUS, this should extend well into Florida. Starting around the 10th, It looks to be a robust active pattern, with several systems rotating through. As expected the Southeast ridge will be extending at times, but I think predominately it will be overall cold as we head toward Christmas…..but the exact timing of the warm and cold shots is unclear at this time.

    Model images from Tropical Tidbits."

  7. #27
    [QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029889][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029538]From Jessica Facebook forecaster
    Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago
    https://www.facebook.com/25498278121...2908346423185/
    I
    https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanorthe...&source=result
    T
    Across the Northeast and Middle Atlantic, the next couple of days will be unsettled, with a warm breezy southerly flow and widespread rain. Wind gust of 25-30 MPH will be possible today, with higher gust possible tonight. These mild temperatures are all ahead of an approaching cold front. The rain and snow-melt could also result in some poor drainage and basement flooding. A strong cold front will approach and move through Tuesday into Wednesday. Tuesday will see temperatures quickly fall behind the front; strong northwest winds will usher much colder air into the region. Resulting in rain changing over to some snow. The first wave will likely bring some accumulating snow, but the roadways and where there is no snow cover will be warm. So, it will take awhile for snow to accumulate in these places. Those in the lower elevations could see a dusting to an inch or two of slushy snow. While those in the higher elevations (especially the high terrain in our northern areas) see a couple to perhaps 6 inches of snow.

    Storm from the second wave

    As the front slides past our region, it will stall out just to our south, and a secondary wave of low pressure will form and ride along the front. This will most likely bring some snow to part of our region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Those with the best chance of seeing a few inches of accumulation, will be Maryland, Delaware as well as the I-95 corridor into Southern New England. The seacoast of Maine and New Hampshire could see some light snow, as could southern parts of Vermont into southern New Hampshire. Generally the I-95, into eastern Pennsylvania and southeast New York State, Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and eastern Massachusetts will see a Dusting to 3”, with areas of 4+”. With the storm winds will be very gusty.

    Lake Effect Snow

    Last week it looked like the 850 mb temperatures would be colder, than they look to be now. So, while the air will be dry; it’s still going to be cold enough for lake effect snow to develop. East and Southeast of Lake Erie will be dealing with the LES Tuesday night; the LES and will continue through Wednesday, ending Thursday morning. For those in and around the Buffalo metro, 2-6″ of lake snow is possible. The focus off of Eire will be for those in Ski Country. The LES off of Lake Ontario will start soon after that off of Lake Erie. For the Tug Hill Later Tuesday night into Thursday, LES that will be heavy at times is possible east of Lake Ontario and north of the Mohawk Valley. Amounts for parts of the Tug Hill into the western Adirondacks look to be 5-14+ inches. The winds will be oscillating quite a bit, so this should help keep localized accumulations under control. The lake snows should end fairly quickly Thursday, as high pressure builds in.

    This is how things look at this time.....but there is time for something to change, so stay tuned.

  8. #28
    [QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030673][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029889][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029538]From Jessica Facebook forecaster
    Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago
    https://www.facebook.com/25498278121...2908346423185/
    I
    https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanorthe...&source=result
    T
    The cold front and storm are moving away. The weather behaved as forecasted. Here is a look at current radar.

    Behind the cold front cold air is surging in, leading to some lake effect snow off of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Lake snow will continue into Thursday morning. By Thursday morning amounts look to be, Those northeast of Lake Ontario 2-5 inches. Then for the Tug Hill will see 3-8 inches with localized higher amounts, southeast of the lake (including Syracuse) a dusting to 2 inches or so. For Erie, 2-5 inches south of Buffalo Metro, for the Metro a Dusting to 2 inches. The lake snows should dissipate by Thursday late morning/early afternoon. Thursday into Friday is looking basically dry and cold. Then our next system approaches Friday night into Saturday.

    Friday a disturbance will move off the Southeast Coast and then move up the Coast. With the high pressure departing the region, the flow will allow for warmer temperatures, this will primarily be a rain event for our region, with perhaps some mix or snow showers in the high terrain.

    For the last couple of weeks, I’ve been talking about the active pattern. The next couple of weeks will be active, with several chances for storms and precipitation. We have a lot of cold air in Canada. But as I said in my winter outlook, the southeast ridge would extend northward at times. So, some of these will be snowstorms others most likely will be rain storms.

    Christmas is two weeks away. So, understand most of y’all are worried about snow chances and such. In the 6-10 day, starting from around December 16th through Christmas the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic look to be overall cool to cold. With the active pattern There will be snow chances. Behind the departing Friday/Saturday storm colder air will filter into the region; there most likely will be a changeover to some snow on the backside of the departing storm system for Sunday into Monday. This cold air mass overhead is going to be important for our next storm system approaching later Monday and Tuesday. Some of y’all are saying it will be a Great Lakes cutter, The GFS is showing this as well. But I think the GFS solution is too far north and west. The low pressure IMO will track much closer to our region than some are thinking……… More on this over the next couple of days.

    Behind the 2nd storm another shot of cold air will invade the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Region. With the cold air over the Northeast for Christmas week, there will be snow chances; there are hints that low pressure will form off the southeast Coast a couple of days before Christmas. This is two weeks out…. but I like the look of the setup, for a possible snowstorm moving up the coast…… I guess we will see. I’ve come to the conclusion that most snow lovers are the glass is half empty types…. but I wouldn’t worry too much about snow on the ground for many regional locations for Christmas.

  9. #29
    [QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030967][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030673][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029889][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029538]From Jessica Facebook forecaster
    Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago
    https://www.facebook.com/25498278121...2908346423185/
    I
    https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanorthe...&source=result

    Today into tomorrow is going to be nice, but today is going to be cold. Without a high latitude block we won’t be able to hold onto the cold; because of that our next storm will bring mainly rain.

    The high pressure over Pennsylvania is going to move off the coast; taking our cold air with it, this will allow for a warm flow to move in overhead tomorrow.

    We will have a system moving out of the south, this will move just inland of the Coast, or maybe just off the Coast, bringing Gulf and Atlantic moisture with it. But with no blocking high to the north, we will have no cold air. So, while there could be a few isolated areas that see precipitation start out as a brief mix (especially southwest PA), the vast majority of us will see all rain for later Friday into Saturday. Rain could be heavy at times Friday night and Saturday. Rain amounts look to generally be 0.50 to 2.0 inches with locally higher amounts, over the entire region. The rain should be tapering to scattered showers later in the day on Saturday. Sunday will see cold air filter back into the region, so any lingering rain should change over to some snow showers, and most likely a little Lake Effect. This cold air will be an important player in our next storm coming in for Monday into Tuesday.

    The GFS and some other models are showing this as a Cutter moving over the Lakes. But I still don’t think they have a handle on the dynamics yet. Our first storm is going to be off to our North and east (Over Newfoundland) (this is called a 50/50 low). With some blocking high pressure sitting over Greenland. While it is possible the storm cuts up over the lower Great Lakes; it is much more likely the storms energy is forced to move south and east, moving south of Pennsylvania and off the Virginia Coast. Where a secondary low should form. If this is the case, for those north of the Mason Dixon Line snow is likely. Those close to the coast and even on the coast could end up with some snow out of this.

    Those of y’all closer and along the coast most likely will see snow change back over to rain, but for interior areas this is looking like mainly a snow/ice event. I know other outlets along with several models are showing a different outcome, but you come here to see what I say. I think I have a really good handle on the pattern, and that is what I’m basing things on. We will see how things play out.

  10. #30
    Another really great Forecaster.
    Matt Facebook for skier and snowboard
    https://www.facebook.com/groups/Nort...4409208555831/

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
All times are GMT -5. The time now is 8:04 PM.