Winter 2019/2020 - Page 4

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  1. #31
    Another really great Forecaster.
    Matt Facebook for skier and snowboard
    https://www.facebook.com/groups/Nort...4409208555831/
    CHRISTMAS CONDITIONS PREVIEW
    Models don't have great visibility going too far out in terms of snow, especially when you are trying to pinpoint light systems with orographic lift on select mountains in full view, but they are often pretty good with temps when you are not on the edge of two air masses. Attached is the ECMWF 10 day snowfall map as well as the 10 day temperature anomaly map. Outside of Tuesday's storm, no other big storms are expected through 12/22, but our weather pattern is going to be cold overall, and this includes the warm storm this weekend. If you put 2 and 2 together, that means later next week will be pretty damn cold. Snowmaking should deliver a lot of acreage by Christmas, however resorts that rely more on natural snow to build their bases may come up short prior to Christmas. Keep in mind that 10 days out this is certainly subject to change and it only covers the period through 12/22.



    Models do show a number of clipper type disturbances impacting the Northeast, and with orographic lift enhancement, these can easily drop 6+ inches in areas like N-VT with some enhancement over most northern areas. Medium range models just don't have the resolution to show the full effects of orographic lift, so there will likely be much more snow in these areas than the map shows. Whether it will be 1 foot or 2 feet is all within the range of possibilities, but outside of the back end to the next storm, and the Tuesday storm, there appears to be a lack of large precipitation drivers over the rest of this 10 day period.

    The problem with the pattern after Tuesday is that we're back into western ridging and eastern toughing, and storms just won't have a chance to dig south and amplify up the coast. During this 10 day period, groomers should become pretty outstanding if that's your flavor. With small additional amounts of snow and daily grooming, the surface will become quite smooth and fine. This pattern however likely changes around Christmas and that should bring more variability in the air masses, and storms. That doesn't necessarily mean rain, though that's clearly within the realm of possibilities.

    So my predictions for Christmas week are that snowmaking terrain should be pretty well along and no one will be missing any targets without operational issues holding them back. Natural snow terrain is still an open question, but there is no indication yet that expectations should be set high. Surface conditions can vary day by day as we saw early this week, so you really can't predict that this far out what they will be during Christmas week, but chances are that the pattern will notably change from the solidly cold one and active weather will likely return.

  2. #32
    [QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031101][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030967][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030673][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029889][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029538]From Jessica Facebook forecaster
    Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago
    https://www.facebook.com/25498278121...2908346423185/
    I
    https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanorthe...&source=result
    A look at current radar, shows the rain advancing north and east. The storm is sitting over, this will deepen has it comes northward. The low, looks to track over Pennsylvania and New York State. This is going to be a slow-moving system, so rain heavy at times, later today and through Saturday. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 2 inches with higher amounts possible. The area of low pressure looks to become quite wrapped up. So, winds will be strong and gusty. As the system moves out and away Saturday night. A breezy northwest wind flow will usher in a colder airmass. Wind gust of 40-50 mph will be possible, especially in higher elevations. Saturday night and Sunday, rain will change over to snow across much of New York State, higher elevations of Pennsylvania (especially western PA) into New England. Lake Effect Snow, will be setting up off of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The extent of this cold air, will be an important part of the setup for the next system for Monday into Tuesday.

    Two pieces of shortwave energy one on the northern stream, the other to the south. These two are going to interact with each other. How the low pressure ends up tracking will depend on the strength of the northern feature and the speed of the feature.

    A good chance for snow in the Northern Ohio Valley and North of the Mason Dixon Line here in the Northeast on Monday into Tuesday/Wednesday.

    For the Mid-Atlantic and I-95 corridor it should start out as a snow/mix then switch over to rain, dusting to a couple of inches of snow/mix is possible.

    Pennsylvania into the Southern Tier of New York State as well as the Mohawk and Hudson Valleys, along with southern New England into the southern Berkshires a snow, mix, then change to some rain, then a changeover back to snow is possible across parts of these areas. This area could see 4+ inches of snow with ice a real possibility.

    The northern tier of New York State and northern New England widespread snow. Snow could be heavy at times Tuesday night into Wednesday. This area is the most likely to see a plowable event.

    If the cold air extends farther south than modeled. Areas to the south would see more in the way of snow and mix, with less rain.

    A really cold shot of air should move out of Canada and the Great Lakes behind the system on Wednesday, the cold air will sit over the region into the weekend, the cold will bring an increasing chance of snow showers as well as lake effect snow.

    There are good signs for a possible winter storm right around Christmas.

  3. #33
    [QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031104]Another really great Forecaster.
    Matt Facebook for skier and snowboard
    https://www.facebook.com/groups/Nort...4409208555831/

    TUE STORM UPDATE #1: Looks Like A Slider
    Attached is a 3 day loop starting Tuesday showing what the ECMWF currently sees for this storm on Tuesday, as well as a separate light disturbance blowing through on Wednesday. The ECMWF snowfall map for the Tuesday storm is also included. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are in good rough agreement, and the best snow primarily in S-VT and S-NH. The Wednesday disturbance will be more isolated and may add some decent snow especially to VT and N-NH in the way of orographic lift enhanced snow.

    Both models are currently showing substantial icing potential in S-NY and Southern New England. Most often this is far more isolated than shown with areas mixing more, falling as snow, or falling as rain. By Monday the NAM3K will be in range and that will give us a better idea about how the terrain and temperature profiles will affect this system.

    I called this a "slider", and what that really means is that this is a lowly amped often elongated storm that primarily moves in one direction. Snowfall rates are unlikely to be high, but the elongated precipitation shield moving along the same direction as the shield can result in enough snow to consider it a powder day (6+ inches). These tend to be pretty isolated and not well covered by TV and major weather outlets, and therefore they are fantastic storms to hunt. This storm will occur mostly during the day however, so it won't feel like a powder day, but the snow should continually refill with middles betting bumped up as it falls, and side stashes piling up.

  4. #34
    [QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031209][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031101][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030967][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030673][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029889][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029538]From Jessica Facebook forecaster
    Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago
    https://www.facebook.com/25498278121...2908346423185/
    I
    https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanorthe...&source=result
    A

    No real changes to our storm currently going on. to see my thoughts on this go back and read my earlier post.

    For Sunday night and through Tuesday into Wednesday, a fairly major storm will impact our region.

    The low pressure will be coming up from the south into the Ohio Valley, energy will transfer east, where a secondary low will form off the Coast. This will move north and east south of New England. The cold air is going to be slow to give way. As I’ve been saying this should bring an accumulating snow for the central Appalachians and along and north of the Mason Dixon Line. Significant snow fall is possible across northern into central parts of our region.

    For those along the I-95 it will snow fairly heavy, before it changes over to a mix of sleet/freezing rain, and then rain, so for those in DC your morning commute could be rough, then from Philly to New York City (long Island) your evening commute will be a headache.

    I’m concerned about the possibility for ice across Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey into Connecticut, Rhode Island, into southern and southeast Massachusetts. 0.25 to 0.50+ inches of ice could lead to power outages.

    As for my first thoughts for general snowfall.

    Of course, track and strength of the storm will decide who sees what. But I think this is generally a 3-6-inch storm across northern into Central Pennsylvania and Northern New Jersey, with 6-8 inches back across localized parts of Southeast NYS, and northwest into central PA. Southern half of Pennsylvania (including (Philadelphia) 1-3 inches is possible. We look to see a swath of snow north of Pittsburgh and south of Buffalo, across the twin tiers of Pennsylvania and New York State (Including the Catskills and Poconos), into Central New York, Eastern Adirondacks, NYS Capital District, northwest Massachusetts, Most of Vermont, New Hampshire, into Maine. This swath could lay down 6-14 inches of mostly snow. 2-4 inches for NYC, Long Island, into around Boston. New York State near the Canadian Border and northern Maine… 2-6 inches. Parts of these areas will most likely be dealing with mix precipitation as well. Those areas that see a lot of ice will see lower snow amounts.

    There is plenty of time for things to change to a storm with a bigger impact or a smaller impact....but generally this is the way to looks to go at this time. Here are a few images from Tropical Tidbits showing the NAM GFS, and EURO. I've also included charts from NOAA that show a similar setup and pattern with a snowstorm back in December of 1977.

    For our possible storm next weekend into Christmas. I know the models are all over the place, but the setup and pattern does support the idea of some kind of storm. Exactly where it sets up and how it tracks is uncertain. But I think there is a good chance for a storm popping up during that time.

  5. #35
    [QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031243][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031104]Another really great Forecaster.
    Matt Facebook for skier and snowboard
    https://www.facebook.com/groups/Nort...4409208555831/
    TUE STORM UPDATE #2: Light and Isolated Event
    The 3 day NWS snowfall maps are a mess right now with multiple events combined in one, and some offices forecasting not all of these events, and so I'm not going to share from the typical source to narrow down the time frame. This is the first image labeled NDFD. I've also included the simulated radar from the NAM3K covering all of Monday and Tuesday. I'm also including the NWS forecast from one of the sites that provides weather models, as well as the model generated output from the ECMWF, GFS, and NAM3K.

    NWS offices are currently forecasting the track similar to the GFS, but less amped like the ECMWF and NAM3K. This matters if you are trying to hunt it as this is an elongated shortwave with a focused area of snow. Right now the best chances of notable snow are in C-NY, S-NY, S-VT and MA. The further west you go, the larger the amounts of snow that will be there to start the day. The event will be almost entirely over by the end of the ski day. Where it snows more than a couple of inches (blue shades), surface conditions will improve remarkably. Bristol and Greek Peak did get some snow bonding to the wet surface on the back-end of Saturday's storm, but everyone else in the track of this snow is machine groomed granular on top of very firm hardpack except where resurfacing has occurred.

    Take note that there will be another upper level low entering the area on Thursday night that should add to the snow totals mostly in N-VT and N-NH, and it could be a nice sleeper powder day. That system however will kick up some winds on Thursday and there will likely be some wind holds. I'll update about the Wednesday storm and lift holds on Monday.



    More evidence of great weekend coming

  6. #36
    [QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031258][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031209][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031101][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030967][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030673][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029889][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029538]From Jessica Facebook forecaster
    Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago
    https://www.facebook.com/25498278121...2908346423185/
    I
    https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanorthe...&source=result

    Today was quite breezy with lake effect snow falling downwind of the Great Lakes. Wind gusts of 40mph to 50 mph have occurred. Snow amounts east of Lake Ontario look to be 4-7 inches by later tonight. 3-4 more inches is possible off of Lake Erie tonight. The lake effect snow should wind down and end later tonight into the overnight.

    Our next complex system will come in three waves, that will bring snow / mix starting during the overnight through Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

    Monday, early to mid-overnight snow will be approaching Pittsburgh. Across southwest Pennsylvania and along the Mason-Dixon Line it will snow for a few hours, By the time for the morning commute snow/mix should have made it into Pittsburgh and likely Baltimore and Philadelphia as well. but by early to mid-morning snow should start to change over to a mix/rain as a warm front, lifts north of Mason-Dixon Line. The snow/mix/rain should stay across southern into central Pennsylvania thru the day on Monday. By Monday afternoon, some snow/mix looks to make it into around New York City. It could cause a little travel disruption; but it shouldn’t be too much of a big deal. As the first disturbance dissipates tomorrow night, a second disturbance will move in.

    The 2nd disturbance will be stronger than the first. Monday night into the overnight, the precipitation shield should start to advance northward. By, Monday overnight snow will be moving into the New York State Southern Tier, with a lot of icing going on across Southern Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey and advancing northward. Monday night into Tuesday, will see snow make it into the Mohawk Valley, NYS Capital District, Northern Massachusetts. The snow will continue to spread north into southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire. The snow will make it into Maine by Tuesday afternoon. Later Tuesday into Wednesday a clipper system will come over the Great Lakes and move into Southern Canada, this will bring more snow Tuesday night into Wednesday.

    When this trio of systems are combined, some parts of northern Pennsylvania, across New York State into southern Vermont into southern Maine will see 4-8 inches with areas of 12-14 inches possible across a narrow corridor.

    Across Pennsylvania (especially central into eastern), northern New Jersey, into Southern New England icing will be a real concern, parts of these areas could see a quarter of an inch to half of an inch of ice. That much on trees and power lines could cause damage as well as localized power outages.

    Behind the clipper, arctic air will make another appearance, with the cold air the lake-effect snow machine will start back up with accumulating snows downwind of the Great Lakes.

    As of right now, this is where I think the best chance is for a white Christmas.
    Winter is back for a great while now

  7. #37
    [QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031325][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031258][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031209][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031101][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030967][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030673][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029889][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029538]From Jessica Facebook forecaster
    Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago
    https://www.facebook.com/25498278121...2908346423185/
    I
    https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanorthe...&source=result
    The weather is going to be quite unsettled the next couple of days, as we deal with this unfolding complex weather event. Part one is waning as we wait for part two later today into tomorrow. But while part one is weak, it is moistening up the atmosphere. That will play a role later for part two. Part two is developing over the Ozarks at this time. This one will be stronger bringing snow and ice farther north, Ice accretion is still an issue for, near the Mason Dixon Line, central and eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England (including NW suburbs of DC, Philly, NYC, and Long Island). Those from northern New Jersey into Connecticut look to be in the most danger for significant icing, these areas most likely will start out as snow, before transitioning over to sleet and freezing rain; the morning commute in these areas will be quite tricky. Tuesday will see the snow expand northward. Then a clipper (part three) drags a cold front through the region, Part three will bring snow across Upstate New York into northern and central New England. As I’ve been saying, everyone will end up getting wintry weather out of all of this, just at different times.Those areas that see a lot of ice will see lower snow amounts. As cold air comes behind the system, lake effect snow will start to fall. My overall Ideas with all of this remain the same as what I’ve posted the last couple of days.

    NAM 3k Images courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics .

    The Kuchera ratio involves taking the temperature in the lower half of the atmosphere and using that to determine the liquid/snow ratio. So it arrives at a slightly different snowfall look as compared to the more typical 10:1 snowfall map.

    The longer range

    Then for later Wednesday into Thursday a system is coming to come in over New York State and New England, with this, we’re going to get a strong shot of Arctic air. Thursday heading into Saturday is going to be cold. This is going to start up the lake effect snow again. The bands could extend a good distance from the Lower Lakes. Those closer to the lakes could end up with a decent lake effect snow event. But then ridging tries to setup in the Midwest heading into the East. So, we will see temperatures turn average to above average heading into Christmas. But remember above average for the end of December isn’t the same thing as above average in July. So snow is still possible, if the storm track is right.

    Around the Great Lakes into much of New York State and New England; the early season snowfall has been very impressive. I know areas into like Long Island, Pennsylvania, and the Middle Atlantic haven’t really cashed in yet. But the pattern for November and December has been quite notable. There are the typical complaints from some of the snow lovers that their area hasn’t seen enough snow…. but it is only the middle of December, as the pattern continues to evolve the snows will work south. Oftentimes in a pattern like this year the cold will overwhelm the pattern, with an active pattern looking likely for the next few months wintry precipitation mostly in the form of snow will be the result.

    The 6-15 day is looking active.

    This weekend we’re going to have a disturbance moving on to the West Coast. With the EPO is going negative we will have to watch this disturbance very closely, as we had toward Christmas and New Year’s.

  8. #38
    [QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031382][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031325][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031258][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031209][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031101][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030967][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030673][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029889][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029538]From Jessica Facebook forecaster
    Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago
    [

    Part 2 of our 3 part event is causing a lot of headaches. 5 Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for freezing rain from Pennsylvania into Southern New England. North of there the Winter Weather Advisories are because of the snow. Southern New Jersey much of Maryland and Delaware is dealing with rain. Here is a look at the current advisories and watches.

    So far, this complex event is going close to the forecast, I’ve been laying out over the last few days. So, I’m not going to say anything about part 2, as that is a nowcast.

    A clipper in Canada (part 3), with an arctic front moving over the Upper Great Lakes, will move across the region bringing very cold air for Wednesday into Friday. There most likely will be a burst of snow/mix, with rain to the south, with the frontal passage. Those closer to Lakes Erie and Ontario will be dealing with lake effect snow, Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse into Rome/Utica and Tug Hill and western Adirondacks will see burst of snow. Off of Lake Erie south of Buffalo into Chautauqua County will be the main focus. The same for the Tug Hill east of Lake Ontario. But I do expect upper Great Lakes support, so those in the Buffalo Metro and on the south shore of Lake Ontario will be impacted as well. For around Syracuse into the Mohawk Valley as well has those southern hills will see lake snow develop to the north, this band looks to drop south by the evening. Bringing snow to the southeast of Lake Ontario. The bands will continue to drop south and diminish Wednesday night/overnight. Those areas south of the Buffalo Metro 3-6 with localized higher amounts. For the higher terrain south of the Mohawk Valley 2-4 inches. The Tug Hill 3-6 especially over the southern Tug Hill where higher amounts are possible. Under the most persistent bands snow rates of 1-3 inches per hour will be possible at times. Those under these bands will see snow pile up quickly snow amounts could approach 8-12 inches in these areas .

    The air coming in will be bitterly cold, as the winds crank up the region will be dealing with wind chills in the teens to the south with sub-zero wind chills to the north. The core of the cold will be overhead Thursday. Friday will still be cold, with temperatures warming for the weekend.

    I will post on next week and the longer range later this evening.

  9. #39
    [QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031104]Another really great Forecaster.
    Matt Facebook for skier and snowboard
    https://www.facebook.com/groups/Nort...4409208555831/
    CHRISTMAS CONDITIONS PREVIEW


    WED STORM UPDATE: Good Day For Northern Areas
    I've been referencing this system coming in behind today's storm and didn't want to mix back-to-back storm updates. This is a squally system which means a mix of whiteout conditions and nothing. Something is wrong with the NWS publishing their snow maps so I'm sharing the NWS snowfall through tomorrow at 7 p.m. in a different looking graphic and I'll talk about that. Also included is the NAM3K simulated radar covering all of Wednesday.

    The best areas for Wednesday will be W-NY, C-NY, N-NY, N-VT, and N-NH. N-VT is likely the focus however since they are getting the trail end of today's system, and they may stay in the snow all day, though there will likely be a lull. These convective squalls will likely dump snow at 1"-2" per hour rates. This is a small lower level shortwave that is out in front of a large cold upper level low that is going to pass over us on Wednesday night and then kick up some winds behind it. There should probably be enough extra moisture in the atmosphere to keep some orographic lift enhanced snow going in N-VT apart from the squalls until sometime in the early morning.

    So here are a few things regarding the NWS snowfall forecasts. First, whenever there is a lake effect event, NWS Buffalo will paint a much larger area with the deepest snow that they expect, but this is almost always far more isolated. NWS Binghamton does the same thing to some extent. So always bear in mind that lake effect can be very hit or miss despite the snowfall maps.

    As far as NWS Burlington goes, they missed today's storm fairly badly and didn't seem to adjust, though their snowfall graphic systems seem to be having issues in multiple locations so maybe they did??? Regardless, N-VT received generally 3-4 inches of fluffy snow today. The NWS forecast for tomorrow is generally 2"-4" in N-VT, and they likely beat that. Some places might pick up 2" in just one hour, and it's not looking like a one-hit-wonder sort of system. So NWS Burlington and NWS Portland are both probably too low across their mountains. I believe an additional +6" will fall in N-VT by tomorrow night in some spots. This won't do a ton to open additional terrain, but the hardcore will probably want back in the trees again. Elsewhere in all of the northern areas as well as S-VT, there is certainly upside to the forecasted snow during this time period.

    Remember that when talking about these smaller systems coming down through Quebec, especially the ones with convective squalls predicted, there can be a lot of variability in the outcomes, and this is on both sides.

    Lastly, a warning for driving home tomorrow. The NAM3K has been showing hit of squalls across much of VT late in the ski day, and more scattered elsewhere, and the effects may last for a bit after close. Look at your radar before driving home and consider stopping for a bite to eat rather than trying to drive through a squall. Squalls are the worst because not only do the roads suck, but you can't see anything, especially in the dark with the flakes reflecting your own headlights back at you on top of the limited visibility.

    I'll be posting a Thursday wind hold map tonight. This will primarily be a N-NH and N-ME event.

  10. #40
    Thanks Scotty
    Tomorrow could be tricky driving with heavy squalls . Over under for chain reaction crash 25 .
    "White Privilege ": The ability to suffer through life's universal indignities without blaming another group for them.

    satrianifnr

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