Winter 2019/2020 - Page 5


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  1. #41
    [QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031382][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031325][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031258][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031209][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031101][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030967][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030673][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029889][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029538]From Jessica Facebook forecaster
    Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago

    Thank silicon Bob
    This winter will be awesome for people
    Low sunspots spots and several other reasons

    The lake effect is flying and the Arctic front is approaching. Here is a look at current radar, from “Weather Tap”, along with frontal position and temperatures. The air behind the front is cold, very cold. Most of the Northeast, including near and along the coast will most likely deal with some snow-squalls associated with the front. Southern New Jersey with much of Maryland and Delaware might not see the squalls, but everyone else is a risk. With the squalls snow could fall hard for a short time leading to poor visibility and a quick dusting to an inch or two of snow. Winds will also be an issue today, blowing snow around ( for those of y’all that have snow) also making for reduced visibility. Those who like thunder-snow , you could hear some.

    As for lake effect snow.

    Right now, the lake snow is east of Lake Ontario across the Tug Hill into the western Adirondacks. The area around the Tug Hill into western Adirondacks should see 5 to 12 inches, perhaps a bit more in some localized areas. Once the Arctic front moves through the lake effect band will push south off the Tug Hill. Those southeast of Lake Ontario see 2-5 inches, Rome and Utica 1-5 inches, Syracuse generally 4-5 inches while Rochester sees around 2 inches. As for Lake Erie, those areas south of Buffalo, like the Chautauqua Ridge will see 5-10 inches. The Buffalo Metro 3-5 inches for today with additional snow tonight.

    Next week and a little on the longer range.

    I’ve been talking about the active pattern, and the potential for a winter storm around Christmas. Over the next few days we’re going to have another clipper to our north, and have a couple of shortwaves move ashore across southern California. The first looks to come ashore the 23rd or 24th, then it looks to move into the Plains. The 2nd and potentially bigger storm looks to move on to the West Coast day after Christmas. The first half of next week will see ridging in the Great Lakes and Northeast, so temperatures will be seasonal to a little above average. But we will have a Clipper to our north dragging in some colder air. This could be enough for a dusting to an inch or two across New York State into Pennsylvania and New England on Christmas. There will be a strong storm in the Southeast around Christmas, but that should stay to our south. A much bigger storm is possible between Christmas and New Year’s, but we will see.

    The teleconnection signal going forward is saying the cold is coming. Of course the American and European models are dealing with feedback issues, showing opposite solutions. But based on the pattern I think we’re going to see the pattern flip as we get into January with the cold sticking around. But, from November 1st to now the overall temperature anomalies have been well below average across our region.

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by Siliconebobsquarepants View Post
    Thanks Scotty
    Tomorrow could be tricky driving with heavy squalls . Over under for chain reaction crash 25 .

    Sad , seems this happens every year. I received 2 weather alerts on my phone which were pretty accurate timing wise.
    Groundhog day lets go skiing !

  3. #43
    [QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031503][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031382][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031325][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031258][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031209][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031101][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030967][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030673][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029889][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029538]From Jessica Facebook forecaster
    Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago

    Thank silicon Bob
    This winter will be awesome for people
    Low sunspots spots and several other reasons

    Well it certainly is cold. Looking at my weather station the air temperature is currently 4 degrees, brisk winds are making it feel well into the negative digits. The core of the cold is today into tomorrow morning. later tomorrow it will start to move out of here allowing for some warming. Temperatures look to moderate even more next week heading into Christmas. Temperatures will start to cool later Christmas Day.

    The next chance for snow for the Northeast is going to be Christmas late morning/afternoon into Boxing Day; as a clipper system comes in over the Great Lakes dragging a weak cold front. How far the clipper comes south will depend on the strength of the ridge out west. Those with the best shot at seeing actual Christmas Snow will be in New York State and northern into Central New England. The system won't have a lot of moisture, but a couple of inches for some over New York State and New England is possible. It will take a Christmas miracle to get any snow into the Southern Tier of Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic.

    About the warming for next week

    I do think the core of the warmth will be to our west. But we’re going to warm with the dry stretch between now and Christmas. We’re going to lose some snow. At my house, I have more than enough snow on the ground to keep snow on the ground for Christmas. But others don’t have the snowpack parts of Northern New York State and New England have, so their snowpack is in jeopardy. I do think the models are overdoing the amount of warming next week. But upper 30s and 40s are still enough to reduce the snowpack. But any of y’all who haven’t done much Christmas shopping the weather for this weekend into Christmas Eve will be great for picking up all those gifts.

  4. #44
    [QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031577][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031503][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031382][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031325][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031258][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031209][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1031101][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030967][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1030673][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029889][QUOTE=ScottySkis;1029538]From Jessica Facebook forecaster
    Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago

    Thank silicon Bob
    This winter will be awesome for people
    Low sunspots spots and several other reasons!.

    Looking ahead, there are signs for absolutely a reversal in temperatures to come to the eastern and central CONUS during the first half of January. In about 10 days (January 5 - January 10) cold air looks to move out of Canada into the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. The question is will it be the start of a sustained colder than average temperature extent or just a temporary pause in this milder pattern we’re finding ourselves in.

    The oscillations and teleconnections are fielding mixed signals right now. The SOI is very negative, we have that weak El Nino Modoki, and there is what appears to be an easterly QBO pattern trying to take hold. But the Polar Vortex is strong, meaning it will be hard to dislodge much in the way of cold into CONUS pattern. Also, the MJO could move back into a warm phase 4. There isn’t much in the way of cold over North America, but there is a lot of Cold on the other side of the Pole. If we can get higher heights into Alaska, we very well could tap into the colder air in Asia.

    In recent years, it seems that the heart of winter runs Jan 15-Mar 15, sometimes even into April. We have seen many winters that saw warm Decembers that ended up being epic winters. I’m sticking to my guns on how winter 2019-2020 ends up, at least for now.

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